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Old 08-22-2017, 11:07 AM   #101
Encinal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny View Post
Latest GFS run out. Thankfully it has backed down off of a major cane. It shows a minimal hurricane around Corpus for now.



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Keep coming further south, weaken more and soak the heck out of S texas.

I'll take a good tank filler!
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:08 AM   #102
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it shows 6.56 inches of rain over 4 days? am I missing something?
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:08 AM   #103
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I'm supposed to move my son to Corpus Saturday for college....
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:08 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by texasnavy05 View Post
really bad news for this cotton farmer. 5-8 inches right now would all but wipeout our harvest. got 2k acres gonna be ready to pick next week...

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That's terrible! I was just looking at the cotton fields on 59 south last weekend. They looked thicker than I had ever seen it. Even commented that it must be a great year for those farmers! Hope this doesn't ruin it for them!
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:12 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Johnny View Post
Latest GFS run out. Thankfully it has backed down off of a major cane. It shows a minimal hurricane around Corpus for now.
and then stalling right over the top of gtown/houston.
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:12 AM   #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Encinal View Post
Keep coming further south, weaken more and soak the heck out of S texas.

I'll take a good tank filler!
And a little further west to get Sonora would be nice as well. Maybe move fast enough to not cause severe flooding anywhere too, while we're at it.
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:12 AM   #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Encinal View Post
Keep coming further south, weaken more and soak the heck out of S texas.

I'll take a good tank filler!
I agree with this statement. They don't need the flooding either, but could darn sure use the rain as much or more than anyone else in the state.
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:13 AM   #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atfulldraw View Post
Timeline:

A few days ago (like 3) every model had this one in southern Mexico.

Two days ago it fizzled out to a tropical wave with no models showing a Texas impact.

Late yesterday, one model and Johnny had it possibly hitting Texas hard -- fully half of the models still showed south of Brownsville.

By 6 am, there were no models showing a Mexico hit.

At this rate, either Johnny will be right (or it will hit Pensacola by Saturday).
exactly its a crap shoot
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:14 AM   #109
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7 day precipitation map.

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Old 08-22-2017, 11:18 AM   #110
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Very good info here, thanks to our local weather guys!
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:18 AM   #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shane View Post
And a little further west to get Sonora would be nice as well. Maybe move fast enough to not cause severe flooding anywhere too, while we're at it.
Hard to fill a 200 acre foot lake without a little bit of flooding...
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:19 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by DEADEYE1 View Post
How many diff weather apps/sites you use? Use one and make up your mind
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:24 AM   #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Encinal View Post
Hard to fill a 200 acre foot lake without a little bit of flooding...
Yessir. 20" probably wouldn't be required, hopefully. But it always takes a flood to break a drought.
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:41 AM   #114
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ok so now we put the boards and nails back down and just prepare for some flooding?
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:50 AM   #115
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Harold Taft the used to say drought is the time between flash floods here in Texas. Paraphrased that.
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:53 AM   #116
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:56 AM   #117
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So it's showing to hit corpus but ride the coast line all the way up to Louisiana? The whole coast is screwed.
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:57 AM   #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Todd View Post
I'm supposed to move my son to Corpus Saturday for college....
Beware where you park on campus and around corpus. The campus parking lots flood easily with a little rain. I'd park in the garage if you're coming on campus and its raining heavy.

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Old 08-22-2017, 12:10 PM   #119
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can you post a link to this page
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:14 PM   #120
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Tagged to follow before my fishing tourney in South Padre. Thanks for the updated info, fellas.


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Old 08-22-2017, 12:22 PM   #121
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Quote:
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Tagged to follow before my fishing tourney in South Padre. Thanks for the updated info, fellas.


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Michael, I hope your tourney isn't this weekend!
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:25 PM   #122
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can you post a link to this page
Pulled it from the Twitter feed of CBS in Austin. Quick Google says you can only get that model from pay sites.
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:34 PM   #123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1369 View Post
Pulled it from the Twitter feed of CBS in Austin. Quick Google says you can only get that model from pay sites.
OK . Thats kinda what I figured. Thanks
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:46 PM   #124
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gingib View Post
How many diff weather apps/sites you use? Use one and make up your mind


2
And neither one of them shows anything similar to what others are posting . Let's just wait and see what happens
I think it's hype like the eclipse


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Old 08-22-2017, 12:47 PM   #125
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Euro model should start running soon, and I'm interested to say the least!

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Old 08-22-2017, 12:48 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by Sackett View Post
Michael, I hope your tourney isn't this weekend!
There are several of us supposed to be in bay tourney's this weekend....
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:54 PM   #127
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Are all the models showing such slow progress after landfall? That gfs run is nuts


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Old 08-22-2017, 12:57 PM   #128
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2:00 NHC outlook...

Quote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over
the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has
become better defined during the day. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move
in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday. Interests in
northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and
tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas
coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and
eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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Old 08-22-2017, 01:01 PM   #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
Are all the models showing such slow progress after landfall? That gfs run is nuts


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That run puts it over us for almost 3 days before it moves out. That could be real bad!!!!!!!!
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Old 08-22-2017, 01:04 PM   #130
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Looks like Hurricane hunters are in it right now.
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Old 08-22-2017, 01:13 PM   #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by captainsling View Post
Looks like Hurricane hunters are in it right now.
From Wunderground:

Quote:
Forecast for ex-Harvey
SSTs will increase to 30°C (86°F) as ex-Harvey moves to the northwest towards Texas this week. The wind shear will stay light, and the atmosphere will remain moist. These conditions should allow ex-Harvey to regenerate into at least a tropical storm before it makes landfall on Friday, and it may be able to reach hurricane strength. The 0Z Tuesday operational runs of our three reliable global models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—all developed the system would develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, and all of these models showed a landfall between the Mexico/Texas border and the central coast of Texas on Friday. The NOAA jet is flying a dropsonde mission over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday evening to help the models make good forecasts for their 0Z Wednesday runs.
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Old 08-22-2017, 01:14 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by CityLimitSlayr View Post
Funny, we'll be down there thursday-monday as well!

SMH, just my luck!
May have to do a live life raft thread or something.
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Old 08-22-2017, 01:34 PM   #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bboswell View Post
There are several of us supposed to be in bay tourney's this weekend....
Y'all be careful and watch your radar.
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Old 08-22-2017, 01:54 PM   #134
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Had no idea about this storm until just now...
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Old 08-22-2017, 02:02 PM   #135
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Not good....



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Old 08-22-2017, 02:04 PM   #136
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yeah, these model runs keeping harvey in texas 5 days sure look scary.
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Old 08-22-2017, 02:24 PM   #137
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Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bboswell View Post
There are several of us supposed to be in bay tourney's this weekend....
Y'all be careful and watch your radar.
Yup had a big group in Port Mansfield for this coming weekend, that got cancelled.

a good site to use is www.windy.com

It shows it moving up into Texas then back down to the Gulf then up the coast.

Or it did...this thing changes its mind pretty regularly.
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Old 08-22-2017, 02:31 PM   #138
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And this just in from the Jackson County Emergency management Office:

Quote:
REMNANTS OF HARVEY TO POSSIBLY AFFECT JACKSON COUNTY:
We have attended a briefing from the National Weather Service this morning at 10am. Basically, Tropical Storm Harvey is being forecasted to regenerate within the next 24 hours, with a potential of a minor Hurricane to form. This will in all aspects be a heavy rain with major flooding conditions and the possibility of Tropical Storm winds. Please make all preparations now if conditions worsen and last minute evacuations are called for.
Please secure all outdoor furniture, yard decor, etc. Make sure you have supplies on hand in case power outages do occur. If you have plans for this weekend that include driving, monitor this situation closely as flash flooding could occur.
We cannot stress enough that preparations need to start taking place now; do not wait as this storm is not allowing us to give much warning as to its impact and strength.
We will be posting updates as much as possible and we will be monitoring this storm during around the clock.
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Old 08-22-2017, 02:34 PM   #139
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That site shows it hitting far south friday, sitting over San Antonio Saturday & Sunday, back to gulf Monday then up coast
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Old 08-22-2017, 02:39 PM   #140
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Was going to fish in Port Mansfield this weekend but the trip was cancelled, so I was going to head to POC...looks like this weekend maybe filled with honeydoes in San Antonio...just need to tell my brother-in-law who is staying at our place in POC to get ready.
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Old 08-22-2017, 02:40 PM   #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EastTexasMan View Post
That site shows it hitting far south friday, sitting over San Antonio Saturday & Sunday, back to gulf Monday then up coast
If you are talking about the windy site, it is using the same models that everyone else is referring to on this post, just in a different visual. You can switch between the euro and the gfs at the bottom right hand corner.
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Old 08-22-2017, 02:40 PM   #142
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Looks like the models are creeping eastward.
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Old 08-22-2017, 02:42 PM   #143
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Thanks for the all info everyone. I'll be watching this closely.
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Old 08-22-2017, 02:45 PM   #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Arrow View Post
Had no idea about this storm until just now...
X2
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Old 08-22-2017, 02:49 PM   #145
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The 12Z models mostly stayed in the same area, if not shifted slightly south & west. Intensity went down, but still showing a very serious rain event.

With as warm as the Gulf is, anything is on the table, but it appears the latest runs are showing a little bit more of a sheared system than the major hurricane they did last night. Still a serious threat.

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Old 08-22-2017, 03:03 PM   #146
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Sitting in Schertz, thinking I might ought to dig out the old umbrella.
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Old 08-22-2017, 03:37 PM   #147
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I am supposed to head to New Braunfels to float the river on Saturday.

I am worried about:

1) the weather getting bad towards the end of the float on Saturday
2) getting back home to houston on Sunday
3) flooding of rental house on river while we are there
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Old 08-22-2017, 03:39 PM   #148
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Tag
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Old 08-22-2017, 03:43 PM   #149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willwork04 View Post
I am supposed to head to New Braunfels to float the river on Saturday.

I am worried about:

1) the weather getting bad towards the end of the float on Saturday
2) getting back home to houston on Sunday
3) flooding of rental house on river while we are there
Don't know if this will help, but I'm 10 minutes from New Braunfels and can let you know how things are looking Friday.
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Old 08-22-2017, 03:57 PM   #150
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tag...
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