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Old 08-22-2017, 07:50 AM   #1
Johnny
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Default Tropical Weather Threat For Texas

This is a continuation off of John Paul's "Weather Guru's" Thread. I believe now is the time to make preparations along the Texas coastline and also for people inland because of the magnitude of the possibility of a destructive rainfall event.

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Old 08-22-2017, 07:50 AM   #2
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I hate boarding up my dam house....hail!
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Old 08-22-2017, 07:53 AM   #3
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Where is Bouce (sp) when we need him. Fiff Ward wake-up call!
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Old 08-22-2017, 07:57 AM   #4
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Thanks for starting a new thread, Johnny. This is going to come relatively quick for everyone.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:01 AM   #5
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As a few others have mentioned, this one will take many of people off guard. This isn't a long tracked Cape Verde system that we can watch for a week or so. The model consensus time frame starts bringing effects from a resurrected Harvey onshore this Friday/Saturday.

The GFS for two runs in a row now shows a major hurricane smashing the Texas coast around the Sargeant area as does the UKMET model. Hopefully the intensity is wrong in these models.

The ECMWF has a strong tropical storm approaching the SoTex coast then it kind of just rides up the entire Texas coast!

The bottom line is, it's time to prepare. I say this for not just people along the coast but for others well inland because a good handful of models show a catastrophic event with this system. More on who gets what as the day unfolds.

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Old 08-22-2017, 08:03 AM   #6
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Just in time for our fishing tournament in POC

Do you think this first disturbance will turn into something later this week?
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:14 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny View Post
As a few others have mentioned, this one will take many of people off guard. This isn't a long tracked Cape Verde system that we can watch for a week or so. The model consensus time frame starts bringing effects from a resurrected Harvey onshore this Friday/Saturday.

The GFS for two runs in a row now shows a major hurricane smashing the Texas coast around the Sargeant area as does the UKMET model. Hopefully the intensity is wrong in these models.

The ECMWF has a strong tropical storm approaching the SoTex coast then it kind of just rides up the entire Texas coast!

The bottom line is, it's time to prepare. I say this for not just people along the coast but for others well inland because a good handful of models show a catastrophic event with this system. More on who gets what as the day unfolds.

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It's great to fantasize about a good rain in South Texas until it starts to get scary for everyone else, darn it.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:19 AM   #8
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When is this suppose to possibly hit?
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:21 AM   #9
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Weather channel said in next 5 days or so
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:22 AM   #10
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Landfall Friday or Saturday.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:26 AM   #11
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Where is projected landfall? And when? And names of storm? Thanks for any info it's appreciated.
(I have no access for this info at this time, apologies for sounding ignorant)
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:26 AM   #12
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The HWRF model was the last big model hanging back with a landfall in northern Mexico. It now has a strong hurricane coming ashore East of Corpus.





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Old 08-22-2017, 08:28 AM   #13
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****, we are vacationing on SPI from Thursday through Monday. Better bring my board and fins!!!!
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:28 AM   #14
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Any flooding threats for Marble Falls / lake Buchanan? We will be on the lake with the RV.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:30 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slingingsticks View Post
Where is projected landfall? And when? And names of storm? Thanks for any info it's appreciated.
(I have no access for this info at this time, apologies for sounding ignorant)
Projected landfall is not exact just yet but models are keying in from just West of Corpus to Galveston. That should be narrowed down a little as the day goes on and into tomorrow morning. This one was already named Harvey but weakened into a wave over the Caribbean. It will remain Harvey if it is named again.

Time frame for coming ashore will be Friday/Saturday.

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Old 08-22-2017, 08:30 AM   #16
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Here is the GSF model this morning.


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Old 08-22-2017, 08:34 AM   #17
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Yep serious threat here.. time is now to start making preparations If you're on the coast, and hope it's all for nothing.

Inland flooding is also a big worry based off the models, and it's slow progression of the system, as well as interacting with a frontal boundary that is heading this way.

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Old 08-22-2017, 08:34 AM   #18
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This is turning into a serious threat very quickly, please spread the news to be prepared and start planning to make preperations to neighbors, family, etc.

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Old 08-22-2017, 08:41 AM   #19
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I saw this on my weather service the morning and wondered how much validity there was to it.

I guess now I know!
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:47 AM   #20
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Wont sniff the gullllllllllllllllffffffffff!
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:55 AM   #21
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Hope this thing has a track to South Texas. We don't need the rain here in Houston.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:56 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by J Sweet View Post
****, we are vacationing on SPI from Thursday through Monday. Better bring my board and fins!!!!

And a life jacket!
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:02 AM   #23
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I've got a kayak tourney in Galveston this weekend. I'm guessing that it'll be cancelled, but it will be a first if they do cancel.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:04 AM   #24
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Playing devils advocate here. Everyone says to get prepared on this site. If I turn on the news or scour wunderground/weatherchannel/local news, I see literally see no mention of it whatsoever.

Why would the news not be covering this if it's an actual threat?

Again, not trying to be a smart ***, just looking for explanation for those of us who don't follow weather closely.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:09 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WItoTX View Post
Playing devils advocate here. Everyone says to get prepared on this site. If I turn on the news or scour wunderground/weatherchannel/local news, I see literally see no mention of it whatsoever.

Why would the news not be covering this if it's an actual threat?

Again, not trying to be a smart ***, just looking for explanation for those of us who don't follow weather closely.
Because its to too far out to cause mass hysteria.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:09 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WItoTX View Post
Playing devils advocate here. Everyone says to get prepared on this site. If I turn on the news or scour wunderground/weatherchannel/local news, I see literally see no mention of it whatsoever.

Why would the news not be covering this if it's an actual threat?

Again, not trying to be a smart ***, just looking for explanation for those of us who don't follow weather closely.
Hang around long enough and you will learn Johnny is not only often ahead of the "pro's" but more accurate as well.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:10 AM   #27
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Well, guess I'll wait a day or two before packing for POC.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:11 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AgHntr10 View Post
Hang around long enough and you will learn Johnny is not only often ahead of the "pro's" but more accurate as well.
Yep.....our weather guys are top notch. ....well, most of them anyways
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:12 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clint View Post
Well, guess I'll wait a day or two before packing for POC.


I heard that!
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:13 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by SabreKiller View Post
And a life jacket!
I will staple a 50 dollar bill to my life jacket for the Coasties that find my body. Hate to put them out so they can go have a few beers after work for hauling my carcass out of the water.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:13 AM   #31
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Landfall in Sargent is real close to home. I'm about 10 miles north.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:14 AM   #32
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How strong a storm are we talking about?
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:15 AM   #33
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Thanks for the heads up Johnny.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:19 AM   #34
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Working from my truck today so can't copy/paste as well.. this is update from Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control.. he gives very good info, and overall synopsis of what is happening and could happen.

***Tropical storm or hurricane threat to TX late this week/weekend***

Residents along the entire TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans today and be fully ready to enact these plans.*

Widespread excessive rainfall/flood event increasingly likely Friday-Sunday

Forecast trends overnight continue to suggest that the tropical wave currently crossing the Yucatan will emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday. The well defined, yet weakening, upper level low now S of Lake Charles will continue to move westward and weaken allowing the continued break down of sub-tropical ridging across TX. This will allow the developing tropical system over the southern Gulf of Mexico to turn NW and NNW toward the TX coast. Nearly all global model guidance is now N of the TX/MX border with landfalls anywhere from Freeport, TX to near Brownsville, TX. The general consensus track is in the region bounded by Corpus Christi on the south and Matagorda Bay on the north. While the model spread is fairly large, the timing is fairly similar and has been for the last 24-36 hours that the system will landfall along the TX coast Friday evening.*

The forecast becomes incredibly complex near/after landfall as the upper level steering flow weakens and the system begins to slow down and possibly stall or meander over the region not far inland of the coast. This is the result of the system becoming caught in a “col” region between high pressure to our NW and our NE and a weak frontal zone which will stall Thursday north of I-10. It appears the system will eventually become caught in the frontal trough and slowly creep E/ENE across much of SC/SE TX into SW LA from Friday-Monday. Should this verify as suggested by several forecast models, rainfall and flooding would be “incredible” over the region.*

Intensity:*
Global models have become aggressive overnight with intensity with both the GFS and hurricane model HWRF showing significant intensification over the NW Gulf Thursday and Friday while the ECWMF, CMC, and UKMET show more modest intensification. It appears nearly everything will align for intensification over the NW Gulf with a 200mb high aloft, very warm SST’s, and possibly the formation of an outflow channel to the south and north of the surface circulation which almost always supports intensification…sometimes rapid. The NW Gulf is certainly no stranger to the formation and rapid intensification of tropical systems and this must be watched very closely once the system enters the Gulf early Wednesday. General consensus of the intensity models bring the system to a minimal category 1 hurricane at landfall along the middle TX coast. Any slowing of the forward motion would only give the system more time to intensify across the NW Gulf….this must be watched very closely.

Impacts:*

Impacts appear increasingly likely along the entire TX coast starting as early as Thursday along the lower TX coast and spreading northward on Friday into the middle and upper coast. Following the TVCN track of the major multi model consensus brings tropical storm conditions into the Matagorda Bay region on Friday with hurricane conditions possible over that region Friday night into Saturday morning.*

As long as the system does not become more than a category 1 hurricane…the legacy will likely become excessive rainfall and inland flooding. Major models are very aggressive and rightly so with some very impressive rainfall totals given the slow meandering motion near/after landfall. A very large portion of the state generally south of the I-10 corridor could see totals over 2-3 days of 10-15 inches with isolated amounts of 25+ inches. This is a potentially very serious flash flood and river flood threat for a large portion SC/SE TX and the coastal bend. Exact totals will be redefined with time as the track confidence increases

Will not use WW3 guidance on coastal impacts as it is based off the highly aggressive GFS run. Instead will follow the TVCN track which would place at least TS force winds across all of the lower and mid coast waters on Friday and at least the western part of the upper coast waters Friday afternoon and night. Hurricane conditions possible Friday night mid coast into our western waters. Will bump seas to 6 feet Thursday as large long period swells begin to arrive out of the central Gulf which will likely start to push up tides. Will go with 12 feet on Friday with 18 ft over our offshore waters as conditions build to near hurricane force west of Palacios Friday night. Will certainly need to start looking at storm surge threat potential, but without a defined track nor guidance from NHC will just have to wait…certainly could see tides breach the 4.5 ft warning criteria over Matagorda Bay and portions of the upper coast on Friday night into Saturday…but unsure how high they may go as this is very dependent on track and intensity.*

Much of these impacts will change over the next 24 hours and this is a very low confidence forecast.*

Residents along the TX coast should be closely monitoring weather information at least once a day. Hurricane plans should be in place and ready to be enacted over the next 24 hours.*

Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of the TX coast on Wednesday

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Old 08-22-2017, 09:19 AM   #35
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Quote:
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I heard that!
Same here...we had a bachelor party scheduled in POC for the weekend. Starting to brainstorm ideas for a plan b.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:19 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by WItoTX View Post
Playing devils advocate here. Everyone says to get prepared on this site. If I turn on the news or scour wunderground/weatherchannel/local news, I see literally see no mention of it whatsoever.

Why would the news not be covering this if it's an actual threat?

Again, not trying to be a smart ***, just looking for explanation for those of us who don't follow weather closely.
You ain't been around long enough to know the history, but Johnny and other weather dudes on here were more than a week ahead of Ike and other storms and were MUCH MORE accurate with their predictions and advice than ALL the public news/weather outlets. I (and many, many others) trust their insights WAY more than The Weather Channel, Underground, or local TV news. I'd suggest you just follow along and learn... and heed the warnings and take the advice.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:22 AM   #37
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If Oklahoma could stop sucking for a couple days....it would help a bunch!
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:25 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clint View Post
Well, guess I'll wait a day or two before packing for POC.


Quote:
Originally Posted by bboswell View Post
I heard that!


Bring your ladders and boarding up skills
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:27 AM   #39
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Right on time, every stinking year.

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Old 08-22-2017, 09:30 AM   #40
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I am curious as to how the ULL in the NW gulf will affect it, the ULL appears to be moving slightly SW and that could potentially pull the system farther northward. I think its a timing event for sure. Be an interesting 24 hours. I look for some slight model shifts

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Old 08-22-2017, 09:33 AM   #41
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Guess my weekend plans are toast. Gotta head to POC to take care of my grandmas house if it is going there.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:38 AM   #42
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http://spaghettimodels.com/

For those of yall that aren't weather experts here is a pretty cool site to look at and get idea of what Johnny and Bonesplitter often talk about on the tropics page. Its just a cool site to look at.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:39 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Traildust View Post
Because its to too far out to cause mass hysteria.
If there is one thing I have learned from our news channels, it is never too soon to start mass hysteria...I remember last year Ed Emmitt preaching for well over a week for everyone to be prepared (I can't remember the storm name), and then when the storm fizzled out, he yelled at everyone for being too prepared. That causes the boy who cried wolf syndrome.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AgHntr10 View Post
Hang around long enough and you will learn Johnny is not only often ahead of the "pro's" but more accurate as well.
Lol, I wouldn't call them pro's by any means, just that it seems like they do whatever they can to hype storms, no matter how minimal they are.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SaltwaterSlick View Post
You ain't been around long enough to know the history, but Johnny and other weather dudes on here were more than a week ahead of Ike and other storms and were MUCH MORE accurate with their predictions and advice than ALL the public news/weather outlets. I (and many, many others) trust their insights WAY more than The Weather Channel, Underground, or local TV news. I'd suggest you just follow along and learn... and heed the warnings and take the advice.
I gotcha. I wasn't questioning any prediction, more of looking for some insight as to why the news wouldn't cover a storm given their disposition to hype anything and everything. Trying to figure out what was different this time.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:39 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by Randy View Post
Right on time, every stinking year.

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Yessir Randy, you got that right!
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:39 AM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonesplitter View Post
I am curious as to how the ULL in the NW gulf will affect it, the ULL appears to be moving slightly SW and that could potentially pull the system farther northward. I think its a timing event for sure. Be an interesting 24 hours. I look for some slight model shifts

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http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basi..._loop_ndfd.gif

Is this what you are talking about when you mention the ULL? I was just looking at that and wondering what this may do to the storm
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:43 AM   #46
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So if Im understanding right, this will make land fall and then meander up and over back to LA correct? What rain can be expected around the Montgomery county area?
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:44 AM   #47
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How far inland is this system going to go?
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:45 AM   #48
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Wow this is the first Im hearing of this storm
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:46 AM   #49
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Well planned on some last minute lease work, but I guess I'll just go to the Hunters Extravaganza and gaze at a bunch of over priced toys.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:47 AM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaybo31 View Post
So if Im understanding right, this will make land fall and then meander up and over back to LA correct? What rain can be expected around the Montgomery county area?
Suffice it to say you're gonna get more rain than what you want.
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