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Old 10-16-2018, 09:08 AM   #1
RiverRat1
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Default Lake Travis

Travis is up more than 10' over the past 3 days.

I'm trying to figure out how they're saying it's only going to rise another 10' with all the flood waters coming in.

I know it holds a lot of water but just the Llano is going to be pouring in 280k CFS soon. And all the flood gates are already open at Max Starke. Hmmm


The LCRA is usually dead on though.. I hope they're right this time. I predict Lake Travis is full or up another 20' in 3 days.
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:25 AM   #2
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https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:42 AM   #3
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Default Lake Travis

The fuller a lake gets the wider the area it fills. Think of it like the letter V. So not only are you talking about a vertical 10 foot, you have to compensate for the larger wider surface area that 10’ covers compared to the previous 10’ and more.
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:44 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smart View Post
The fuller a lake gets the wider the area it fills. Think of it like the letter V. So not only are you talking about a vertical 10 foot, you have to compensate for the larger wider surface area that 10’ covers compared to the previous 10’ and more.
Your user name is perfect.
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:46 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smart View Post
The fuller a lake gets the wider the area it fills. Think of it like the letter V. So not only are you talking about a vertical 10 foot, you have to compensate for the larger wider surface area that 10’ covers compared to the previous 10’ and more.
Ahh hell....
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:48 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smart View Post
The fuller a lake gets the wider the area it fills. Think of it like the letter V. So not only are you talking about a vertical 10 foot, you have to compensate for the larger wider surface area that 10’ covers compared to the previous 10’ and more.
I understand all the math. But 280K plus CFS is a crazy unimaginable amount of water that will be coming in soon.

We shall see. I still say the lake is full in 3 days. Or above full
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:52 AM   #7
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Default Lake Travis

Just got a message that there is a barge loose on LBJ and for those below the dam to prepare for it to be damaged
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:57 AM   #8
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I don't remember the exact numbers but I read somewhere when Lake Travis is full that the top few feet. I don't remember the exact number it was less than 10. Had the same amount of water as the rest of the lake.
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:11 AM   #9
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Travis is up over 1' in the past 2 hours.

672.29 at 9am
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:13 AM   #10
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Default Lake Travis

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Originally Posted by ttaxidermy View Post
Ahh hell....


You’d be surprised how many folks think a lake is like pool
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:14 AM   #11
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Default Lake Travis

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Originally Posted by nativeaustin View Post
I don't remember the exact numbers but I read somewhere when Lake Travis is full that the top few feet. I don't remember the exact number it was less than 10. Had the same amount of water as the rest of the lake.


Ive heard the same on many lakes.... especially up here in North Texas and out west where there aren’t as many hills and the lay is flatter.
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:14 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by nativeaustin View Post
I don't remember the exact numbers but I read somewhere when Lake Travis is full that the top few feet. I don't remember the exact number it was less than 10. Had the same amount of water as the rest of the lake.
Yeah, it takes a lot to fill those last few because the Lake fans way out so there is a whole lot more water as you reach the top.
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:18 AM   #13
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Mansfield/Travis Oct 16 2018 9:15AM 672.58 492.27 Oct 16 2018 9:14AM No gate operations to pass floodwaters are expected at Mansfield Dam at this time.


.3' in the last 15 minutes.

Makes me want to drive down to the lake and watch the water rise LOL
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:18 AM   #14
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When we had our big flood last May, Norfork went up 25’ overnight and Bull Shoals was recieving 1,000,000 cfs.

It’s hard to imagine what it would be like down stream without the lakes that we have. The management of the lakes is pretty fascinating. Travis is doing its job.

Land Development and...climate differences...have led to some really destructive weather.
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:42 AM   #15
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Now they are finally saying Travis will fill up. And they may have to open floodgates on Travis "soon"

That's what I figured.



Mansfield/Travis Oct 16 2018 9:30AM 672.86 492.24 Oct 16 2018 9:14AM No gate operations to pass floodwaters are expected at Mansfield Dam at this time.
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:44 AM   #16
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Just got this about evacuating those along the Colorado Rover and Lake LBJ. Praying this passes quickly

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Old 10-16-2018, 10:50 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
Travis is up more than 10' over the past 3 days.

I'm trying to figure out how they're saying it's only going to rise another 10' with all the flood waters coming in.

I know it holds a lot of water but just the Llano is going to be pouring in 280k CFS soon. And all the flood gates are already open at Max Starke. Hmmm


The LCRA is usually dead on though.. I hope they're right this time. I predict Lake Travis is full or up another 20' in 3 days.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
Now they are finally saying Travis will fill up. And they may have to open floodgates on Travis "soon"

That's what I figured.



Mansfield/Travis Oct 16 2018 9:30AM 672.86 492.24 Oct 16 2018 9:14AM No gate operations to pass floodwaters are expected at Mansfield Dam at this time.



Travis is full pool at 681 foot.... it is 671 right now and was at 670 at your post......so their prediction of 10 foot would be pretty much dang close, no?
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:02 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smart View Post
Travis is full pool at 681 foot.... it is 671 right now and was at 670 at your post......so their prediction of 10 foot would be pretty much dang close, no?
Yes.

I was going off the flood pool elevation mentioned on the news. So things got confusing.

Either way they just closed Lake Travis. And LCRA website still says no floodgate operations for Mansfield but I bet that changes also.

The news was way underplaying this water making it through Travis IMO. That's the only reason I started this thread.


And Buchanan will be full soon also. Colorado River is flowing pretty good. If we get any more rain it could get bad real quick.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:11 AM   #19
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Default Lake Travis

Llano river bridge in Kingsland just collapsed and was flipping down the river....crazy.

https://www.facebook.com/CBSAustin/v...7398619855697/
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:19 AM   #20
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The level of Lake Travis is expected to rise within a range of 678 to 681 feet msl within the next 24 hours.
Current Reading: 673.76 Oct 16 2018 10:15AM

Up another 1' in 45 minutes.

We shall see if the rise slows down a lot as it gets fuller. In flows should drop fast at this point.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:21 AM   #21
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Right next to the brand new Boat Town dealership and restaurant. The video is shot from the patio, that is usually a 30 foot hike up the hill to get to.

We have friends with a house just past that bridge on the left, hoping they’re out and ok. This is getting ridiculous with the weather and flooding
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:21 AM   #22
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Pray Buchanan can hold all the water coming down the Colorado. River is 27ft high at our ranch in Mills County.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:24 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrandonA View Post
Pray Buchanan can hold all the water coming down the Colorado. River is 27ft high at our ranch in Mills County.
And 35,000 CFS But it's not in flood stage yet. I'm watching Buchanan levels also.

Last Reading: 1015.55 Oct 16 2018 10:15AM

I should be out catfishing!
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:27 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
And 35,000 CFS But it's not in flood stage yet. I'm watching Buchanan levels also.

Last Reading: 1015.55 Oct 16 2018 10:15AM

I should be out catfishing!
4ft more feet and they will start releasing water most likely.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:28 AM   #25
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I hate rain right now. We own underwater land instead of waterfront.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:29 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrandonA View Post
4ft more feet and they will start releasing water most likely.
They are predicting future rise to 1016-1018 Seems low to me...But the Colorado will drop fast if it doesn't rain more..So 1018 may be about right.

Lake level forecast: The level of Lake Buchanan is expected to rise to a range of 1016 to 1018 feet msl in the next 24 hours
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:34 AM   #27
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It is still raining and keeps building along the I10 corridor between SA And Sonora
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:36 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
And 35,000 CFS But it's not in flood stage yet. I'm watching Buchanan levels also.

Last Reading: 1015.55 Oct 16 2018 10:15AM

I should be out catfishing!
Isn't Buchanan massive? I feel like it could catch a whooooooooole lotta water, but I know nothing about it beyond the aerial outline.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:41 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by BitBackShot View Post
Isn't Buchanan massive? I feel like it could catch a whooooooooole lotta water, but I know nothing about it beyond the aerial outline.
It is a big lake but I have seen it go from 10 ft low to flood gates open in 24hrs.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:47 AM   #30
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Marble Falls area is bad- wife is one of the directors for the city and I may be loading up our rescue boat and a couple guys and heading that way. Send prayers for no loss of life as property damage is something that can always be replaced and it is going to be there

biggest concern this minute is rainfall this evening.
Glen

Last edited by glen; 10-16-2018 at 11:49 AM.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:50 AM   #31
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Default Lake Travis

We have a place on LBJ and have fingers crossed at this point. Not much else we can do. Had to rebuild my sisters house after Harvey, it’ll just be another rebuilding project if the worst happens.

Really worried about what will happen to the dam when the chunk of the 2900 bridge hits it, and we keep our boat at the marina by the dam.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:51 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tommy1005 View Post
We have a place on LBJ and have fingers crossed at this point. Not much else we can do. Had to rebuild my sisters house after Harvey, it’ll just be another rebuilding project if the worst happens.

Really worried about what will happen to the dam when the chunk of the 2900 bridge hits it, and we keep our boat at the marina by the dam.
Hopefully it will sink before then.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:53 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glen View Post
Marble Falls area is bad- wife is one of the directors for the city and I may be loading up our rescue boat and a couple guys and heading that way. Send prayers for no loss of life as property damage is something that can always be replaced and it is going to be there

biggest concern this minute is rainfall this evening.
Glen
I was wondering when you would get the call Glen! Be safe!!!
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:54 AM   #34
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And there it is.. Just announced they will be opening flood gates on Mansfield.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:57 AM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
The level of Lake Travis is expected to rise within a range of 678 to 681 feet msl within the next 24 hours.
Current Reading: 673.76 Oct 16 2018 10:15AM

Up another 1' in 45 minutes.

We shall see if the rise slows down a lot as it gets fuller. In flows should drop fast at this point.
Last Reading: 674.42 Oct 16 2018 10:45AM

Up 6 tenths of a foot in 30 minutes. I think the peak flow is entering Travis now... Hopefully/
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:02 PM   #36
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Its hard to believe that much water is flowing into the lakes that fast. That is just insane.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:10 PM   #37
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Scary!
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:39 PM   #38
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Travis
Last Reading: 675.38 Oct 16 2018 11:30AM


Now they said it will rise up to 690-695 in the next 48 hours.

Or up 20' like I said when I started this thread. Maybe they need me to work for them LOL
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:46 PM   #39
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690-695 will flood some homes on Travis.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:52 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tommy1005 View Post
Right next to the brand new Boat Town dealership and restaurant. The video is shot from the patio, that is usually a 30 foot hike up the hill to get to.

We have friends with a house just past that bridge on the left, hoping they’re out and ok. This is getting ridiculous with the weather and flooding



That chunk will be on the bottom of the deeper part of the river and for sure the main lake long before it gets to the dam.


If there was enough moving water force to get it to the dam, the dam wouldn't be there right now.
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Old 10-16-2018, 01:01 PM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
Travis
Last Reading: 675.38 Oct 16 2018 11:30AM


Now they said it will rise up to 690-695 in the next 48 hours.

Or up 20' like I said when I started this thread. Maybe they need me to work for them LOL
Keep us updatrd!
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Old 10-16-2018, 01:07 PM   #42
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I'd hate to be in Apache Shores or Graveyard Point right now.

Just drove over the Pedernales at HWY 71...up 6' in the last 24-hours. She looks like she wants to roll.

Last edited by simek; 10-16-2018 at 01:24 PM.
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Old 10-16-2018, 01:21 PM   #43
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One flood gate was just opened on Lake Travis and one on Lake Austin's Tom Miller dam. More at Lake Travis as needed.
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Old 10-16-2018, 01:26 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
Travis
Last Reading: 675.38 Oct 16 2018 11:30AM


Now they said it will rise up to 690-695 in the next 48 hours.

Or up 20' like I said when I started this thread. Maybe they need me to work for them LOL


Last Reading: 676.48 Oct 16 2018 12:15PM
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Old 10-16-2018, 01:31 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simek View Post
I'd hate to be in Apache Shores or Graveyard Point right now.

Just drove over the Pedernales at HWY 71...up 6' in the last 24-hours. She looks like she wants to roll.
I got a video from the landowner on our lease this morning. We're on the Pedernales just west of Hwy 16 between Fredericksburg and Kerrville. It's up what looks like 12-15' on our place. Several inches of rain in the 10-day forecast as well.
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Old 10-16-2018, 01:32 PM   #46
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That steep, limestone country is to efficient at shedding water...

You folks be careful down there.




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Old 10-16-2018, 03:18 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
Last Reading: 676.48 Oct 16 2018 12:15PM
Almost at 680 on Travis

Last Reading: 679.62 Oct 16 2018 2:15PM



Still rising about 14-15" per hour
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Old 10-16-2018, 03:25 PM   #48
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I have been on Travis when it came up a foot over night. And it hadnt rained anywhere near what it has for the last week. That lake rises and falls stupid fast when it wants
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Old 10-16-2018, 03:39 PM   #49
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I remember in the early 90's there was a flood and water was coming into Lake Travis I went to one of the parks and set up for cat fishing. Bite was on, I would put a stick in the ground about a foot from the waters edge and then time how long it took to reach the stick. It was usually about 45-50 minutes.
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Old 10-16-2018, 04:02 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
They are predicting future rise to 1016-1018 Seems low to me...But the Colorado will drop fast if it doesn't rain more..So 1018 may be about right.

Lake level forecast: The level of Lake Buchanan is expected to rise to a range of 1016 to 1018 feet msl in the next 24 hours
They raised predictions on Buchanan finally. Saying 1018-1020 now. Slow pokes.

Buchanan
Last Reading: 1016.69 Oct 16 2018 2:45PM
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