The Market Bottom?

[tps7742]

I must be the only guy that panics before markets drop.

I still don't think you get what I'm saying..maybe one day. What I'm talking about only happens once every decade or so...so it doesn't matter. We will all be conditioned (again) to buy and hold is the only game. Until the next debacle

I get what you are saying for sure after these most recent events and the 2007/08. Not counting the 80/90s now that I am knocking on 60 in the next couple of years. Never again! When/if it recovers this time I am going to Reallocate and put it on cruise control.

[RiverRat1]

"Recovered" means "recovering" back to the peak where it was when it started falling.

I don't know where you and Tevor73402 get your information/numbers, but 2.5 years to hit bottom is incorrect and 18 months to recover is incorrect.

S&P 500 peaked on October 10, 2007 @ 1565, then it bottomed on March 9, 2009 @ 676, a drop of 56% over 17 months.

Then, it did not get back to the previous peak of 1565 until March 28, 2013, which was about 5 1/2 years from peak until it recovered back to that peak. It took 4 years from the market bottom on March 9, 2009 to get back to the previous market high.

Sorry I meant 1.5 years to fall... My bad. I had dates correct just can't do math

My point is the SPY was up 90% in 13 months after it hit bottom. And up 150% within 18 months... Those numbers are rough. If you leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007 then it did recover within 2 years.

[glen]

Market is off and running second day in a row. I would imagine anyone with money had seen the virus # way different than predicted and are going in

[nchunter]

It’s normal in bear markets to have spectacular run ups. In fact the trend is great run ups and then a retesting of the previous lows. I am using this to sell out of positions acquired a few weeks ago and then I will wait and see. Unemployment continues to skyrocket and corporate earnings will be destroyed.
At a certain point nobody knows anything and depending on your time horizon it may or may not matter.


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[Burnadell]

Sorry I meant 1.5 years to fall... My bad. I had dates correct just can't do math

My point is the SPY was up 90% in 13 months after it hit bottom. And up 150% within 18 months... Those numbers are rough. If you leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007 then it did recover within 2 years.

Dadgummit, Tim. I don't mean to keep arguing with you, but I have something in my DNA that just cannot accept wrong information and feel the need to correct it.

The S&P 500 was NOT up 90% in 13 months. a 90% increase would have been 1284, and it did not achieve that until Jan, 2011...or 22 months.

It also was not up 150% in 18 months. Remember, it has to double in order to increase by 100%. (if something loses 50% of its value, it has to increase 100% to get back to even.) It took considerably longer than 18 months to increase 150%.

I don't understand your logic to "leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007." Why do that? That is manipulating your numbers. The market peaked in October, 2007, so that is what the drop and recovery is based on/off.

I apologize for my compulsion to correct wrong information.

[Leon County Slayer]

What's the upside to this thread? Spread panic and negativity....
No person in history has been able to time the market and I doubt any of us are seeking financial advice for our future livelihoods on TBH (at least I hope not!)

[GarGuy]

Dadgummit, Tim. I don't mean to keep arguing with you, but I have something in my DNA that just cannot accept wrong information and feel the need to correct it.

The S&P 500 was NOT up 90% in 13 months. a 90% increase would have been 1284, and it did not achieve that until Jan, 2011...or 22 months.

It also was not up 150% in 18 months. Remember, it has to double in order to increase by 100%. (if something loses 50% of its value, it has to increase 100% to get back to even.) It took considerably longer than 18 months to increase 150%.

I don't understand your logic to "leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007." Why do that? That is manipulating your numbers. The market peaked in October, 2007, so that is what the drop and recovery is based on/off.

I apologize for my compulsion to correct wrong information.

Hey! Get off of Tims lawn!

[wdtorque]

Oops

What's the upside to this thread? Spread panic and negativity....
No person in history has been able to time the market and I doubt any of us are seeking financial advice for our future livelihoods on TBH (at least I hope not!)

Have to admit I trust information here more than most places.
Let's get back on track.
What's worth buying these days?

[Leon County Slayer]

Have to admit I trust information here more than most places.
Let's get back on track.
What's worth buying these days?

ok, scary but I'm looking at American Airlines and Schlumberger and BP myself - don't follow my uneducated lead though!

[djohnson]

The market is one of the best indicators of where the pandemic is going. If we continue to get good news coming in around the world, especially in hot spots like NY, Italy, and S. Korea then the market will go back up but that doesn't mean a 29K Dow. It means we will have to see what the long term impact is on revenues. If you are like me and more concerned with the dividends coming off your stocks as cash flow then it's a frightening picture as you can't pay dividends without profits and Q2 is already shot. If you are selling right now then all you are doing is locking in your losses. Remember, you havn't lost anything until you sell something.

[glen]

ULTA. Lots of cash - assets- very little debt. Lady that runs it is a powerhouse.

[Burnadell]

Hey! Get off of Tims lawn!

Yard

[denimdeerslayer]

Looks like short term may be the best money maker right now.

[GarGuy]

Yard

Yard....that's a little less than a meter?

[captainsling]

ULTA. Lots of cash - assets- very little debt. Lady that runs it is a powerhouse.

Bought ULTA in 2008 for $5 and some change when I noticed the ridiculous business they had every time my wife needed something from there.