Draw Hunt Analysis

[Deerguy]

Dang man that's some pretty tough odds even if you get drawn. I would assume a lot of that has to do with the fact that you have to scout and set up somewhere close to a game trail . Did you bring a pop up blind or climbing stand or what ?

The archery mule deer hunts (at least at Black Gap) were tough due to limited vegetation and historically low deer densities due to drought. Densities are a little better now, especially after some restocking. But, desert mule deer numbers are a lot lower than what many are used to with white-tails. Mostly glassing and spot and stalk, but I did set up on a guzzler one hunt for a day. With the sometimes limited vegetation, mainly used topography as cover for the stalk. There were plenty of deer on the other hunts. Gene Howe and Matador also mainly involved high spot glassing (open country). Didn't get a great compartment for whitetails at Matador, but still saw 10-30 deer each hunt, including some legal deer, but nothing I really wanted to shoot (nothing old). I did use a small tripod at the Daughtrey. I don't really like popups, takes too long for deer to get used to them unless you significantly brush them in (and if you're going to do that, might as well just use a brush blind, which is what I do). On most hunts (other than the archery mule deer), just about everybody either shot something or had the opportunity to. That's what i like best about these hunts though, they are not always easy or canned. I can sit in blind and stare at corn other places. Always have a much greater sense of accomplishment on these hunts when successful. Got both bucks mounted even though there's really nothing outstanding with either (140-inch 11-point and a 127-inch 7 point). Good memories.

[Bloodhound]

Go to the website and log in to check status. When it loads, go down a little to where it says Hunt Season. There will be a drop down box where you can select a year.

Thank you Deerguy. I'll check it out.

[crawdaddct]

That's a nice breakdown. I have been putting in on and off since 1992, I believe. The system doesn't reflect correctly. I think because I stopped under the old system and started again under the new.

Pre-change I was drawn for four hunts. 2 exotic and 2 doe, as part of my father-in-laws group. Its amazing how many big bucks you see on a exotic hunt or doe hunt. Been drawn twice under new system with me putting in myself and my boys. Both buck hunts. Couldn't go to one, last year.

I also put in for some hunts close to my house, deer, duck, and squirrel. They are still mail in cards and not e-cards yet.

[ttu1997]

I have similar results. I too only put in for "quality" hunt locations (chap, Elephant Mtn., pronghorn etc.)

I have 21 preference points for Rita Blanca and never been drawn
17 Exotic Mason Mtn both hunts and no draw
big horn sheep 7 points no draw
guided gemsbok and oryx 10 & 12 respectfully no draw
gun deer took 10 points to draw at Matador, great hunt, hard hunt no shots fired
gun mule deer took 10 points to draw black gap with card of 4 apps 1 kill of nice buck all had opportunities

My experience has been that it take 10 pts to get first draw on a good location. I am in on 11 draws this year and 7 of the hunts I have 9 or more points (due to group point average).

So what I am trying to tell all of you is do not put in for any of the public hunts so I can win every once in a while.

[southsider]

Analysis: GDE 30 preference points
Assuming that the average PP is 15 and using data from last years draw,
Gives me 16.5% chance of drawing one of the 3 I applied for.

Not feeling it at the moment...

[RogerBTX]

I heard part of the low draw success is that everyone has gone from applying for 10 hunts per year to 40 hunts per year (as above). And there are more people applying since it is online and not limited to one hunt per category. No one has pointed out the increase in applications per unit/hunt over the last few years. A large increase in applications with no increase in openings will lower success of getting drawn.

[Cur_Dog]

I'm not a fan of the new system!

[bowhuntingw]

I heard part of the low draw success is that everyone has gone from applying for 10 hunts per year to 40 hunts per year (as above). And there are more people applying since it is online and not limited to one hunt per category. No one has pointed out the increase in applications per unit/hunt over the last few years. A large increase in applications with no increase in openings will lower success of getting drawn.

I hate it. I hunt Wyoming and Montana also. It sure would be nice if I could put I for every elk hunt or every antelope hunt offered. We have the least amount of public land of any of the western states. I like the old system. Put all your eggs in one basket instead of an egg in every basket.

[BVM]

Lucky

Definitely luck. I have applied for 13 yrs and have won 18 hunts. Have never had a year I did not win.

I have won Garner state park, Brazos, Colorado Bend,(2) Richland Creek multiple times (5 or 6), gus England, big lake bottom, JD murphrey (2), Kerr, Daughtery, to name a few... Took animals on most of these hunts.

Not doing anything special other than looking at odds and statistics. Definitely just random draw and have never had many points when applying before and after the change.