Originally posted by LWC
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From what I understand this is correct but I’m not sure where they are for the antibody test. I think the current test is for the antigen not the antibodies. If an antibody test becomes readily available it can answer a lot of questions for people that think they’ve already been exposed to covid 19 -
Anybody familiar with Barry Bloom? He's an old guy from Harvard that is considered a pioneer of infectious diseases, vaccines, and public health. Below is a link to a press conference he did Thursday. Pretty interesting overall. But he recognizes that what we have so far are models off of incomplete data. It seems fairly certain (to me at least) that the more people that get tested, the less catastrophic this disease will appear. Hopefully we can get more complete data asap to help make sensible policy decisions at the national, state, and local levels. This is not a one size fits all problem. Maybe this will happen before irreparable damage is done to our rights and our nation.
Coronavirus (COVID-19): Press Conference with Barry Bloom, 03/19/20
Transcript You’re listening to a press conference from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health featuring Barry Bloom, professor of immunology and infectious diseases and former dean of the sc…
www.hsph.harvard.edu www.hsph.harvard.edu
BARRY BLOOM: So, I may sound like a broken record that you’ve heard before. But the case fatality rate depends on two things, one of which is pretty easy to figure out, which is how many people die. In some places, it’s not always clear whether they die of this infection(COVID-19), or influenza, or something else. So, there’s a certain amount of uncertainty about just counting people who die in a given region in the middle of an epidemic.
The second, and much more difficult, is the rate depends on how many people of those infected actually die. And we have figures from China. And I think everyone would agree that not everybody was tested. So, we actually don’t know what the denominator is. And the more people who get tested, usually, the lower the case fatality rate is.
So, if you remember H1N1 in Mexico, the initial reports– case fatality rate were 5% to 10%. And that was mostly because they were looking at people who were sick, very sick, and in hospitals. But as the epidemiology played out retrospectively and one tackled how many people had any medical problem that could be related to an infection with flu, it went down to 0.07%.
So, the case fatality rate really depends on knowing the denominator. And without testing a very wide range of people, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, we tend always to get a higher number, which is the most frightening number. For the modeling studies, people that I’ve looked at– I’m modeling at about 1%. And it may drop down quite dramatically if we actually knew how many people were infected and not sick at all.Comment
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I have said from the start. It is a nasty virus. Just like every virus lots of folks will get it. Humans will build immunity as they are exposed to small doses of it or they themselves will get it. The final outcome of the virus may be the same as the flu or actually not as bad who knows. Once it has entered the masses it will have to run its course. Maybe here in Texas they are trying to hold it off until temps are in the 90s often. Virus will struggle to strive in hot temps.Comment
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Some virus swept thru my kids school first of year. Negative flu and strep tests for both my girls. My wife and I did not get it.
Social media is the devil.
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This is another one of those rumors I’ve heard so take it for what it is. But they say (and I don’t know who they actually are) COVID-19 isn’t stopped by high temps like the flu. Once again take it for what it’s worth.Originally posted by glen View Post
Like many others I had something exactly one month ago. 101-102 fever for a day or two, severe cough for about a week, coughing a bunch of stuff up, slight muscle aches the first two days. I didn’t get tested for the flu though. I was however around a coworker who had just came back from traveling internationally who came to work with the exact same symptoms I had. My guess is we had the flu or the Wu flu.
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if this had been circulating for a couple months prior to the total freak out, shouldn't we have seen more nursing homes get hit hard like the one up in washington?Comment
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Makes a lot of sense. My wife had all these symptoms about a week before testing was available. Neg tests for flu and strep. They said it was bronchitis, but she’s had that and said it was definitely not bronchitisComment
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Not discounting numerator/denominator issues, but the flu tests are 50-80% effective at detection.
That means a whole lot of people out there test negative for flu, that have flu.Comment
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I dont know that I'm just buying into the article 100% but I do agree with some of what is says. Something like 13,000 people fly back and forth between the US and China everyday. I find it hard to believe that if the virus spreads as vigorously as they say, it took that long for the virus to make it back to America. That being said I think the death rate is wayyyy off. For older folks and people with related pre-existing conditions, I think this is something I would be paying close attention too. But they have said that a lot of healthy younger people may not ever know they have the virus. Why would you ever go get tested if you have no symptoms yet those cases would need to be accounted for to have an accurate death rate.Comment
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I was hospitalized in early January for the same symptoms URI/Pneumonia. Maybe covid19 is close to running its course, but the CDC dropped the ball on this one. They have the data and should have known what was going on January was covid19.
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From your article:Originally posted by Rounder View Post
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday. Ferguson’s...
www.dailywire.com www.dailywire.com
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.Comment
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