What's your guess on voter turnout this year?

[jerp]

Saw some of the ads this weekend with various celebs urging people to vote. I went back and looked at the numbers. In the 12 presidential elections since 1972 an average of 53.5% of eligible voters cast a ballot. It was slightly higher in 2016, coming in around 57%. Every 4 years there seems to be another big "get out the vote' effort by one group on another but the numbers don't budge. Trying to rally young voters ("Rock the Vote!") has really failed, the 18-24 cohort never cracks 40%. So we now have another in a string of "most important election of our lifetime!" Will it be different this time? One can make a compelling argument why it could be with mail-in ballots and both sides so charged up, however I remain unconvinced

[Let's go Brandon!]

I'm going with the 60+% range

[JTeLarkin08]

I saw the rock was endorsing Biden lol.


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[DapperDan]

I saw the rock was endorsing Biden lol.


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[texasdeerhunter]

The mail-in ballots scare me. Because they now will make it easier for a lazy person to vote. If a person is too lazy to vote during the two week early voting period, or on Election Day, they obviously don’t care enough about it. But if all they have to do is check a box on a card and place it in their mailbox...who knows what’s going to happen.

[elgato]

My belief is low voter turnout is the best chance Trump has to win. I believe Trump voters are highly energized and motivated. Whereas it appears most Biden voters are more anti trump than pro Biden. { Just me but how can you get excited about Joe Biden? }

But in my travels around the country once out of the pro Trump echo chamber I am truly concerned with his chances to win.

[BrianL]

My belief is low voter turnout is the best chance Trump has to win. I believe Trump voters are highly energized and motivated. Whereas it appears most Biden voters are more anti trump than pro Biden. { Just me but how can you get excited about Joe Biden? }

But in my travels around the country once out of the pro Trump echo chamber I am truly concerned with his chances to win.

I agree on both counts, but IMOP we already won with the 2 SCOTUS picks and all the large number of lower court judges. That is the MAIN reason I voted for Trump in 2016. I will vote for him 2020, but my main concerns have been fulfilled. I kinda think it would have been better for him to keep the SCOTUS pick as an election issue, but glad it won't be.

[elgato]

I agree on both counts, but IMOP we already won with the 2 SCOTUS picks and all the large number of lower court judges. That is the MAIN reason I voted for Trump in 2016. I will vote for him 2020, but my main concerns have been fulfilled. I kinda think it would have been better for him to keep the SCOTUS pick as an election issue, but glad it won't be.

Agree. And am glad he is moving forward now with scotus as that opportunity may well be gone after the election.

[jerp]

My belief is low voter turnout is the best chance Trump has to win. I believe Trump voters are highly energized and motivated. Whereas it appears most Biden voters are more anti trump than pro Biden. { Just me but how can you get excited about Joe Biden? }

But in my travels around the country once out of the pro Trump echo chamber I am truly concerned with his chances to win.

And how many dems are really excited about Kamala Harris? She was at 3.5% in the polls when she dropped out of the primary.

[RiverRat1]

I agree on both counts, but IMOP we already won with the 2 SCOTUS picks and all the large number of lower court judges. That is the MAIN reason I voted for Trump in 2016. I will vote for him 2020, but my main concerns have been fulfilled. I kinda think it would have been better for him to keep the SCOTUS pick as an election issue, but glad it won't be.

While true I still want nothing more than to wipe the floor and make these liberals cry. Crush them so bad they hide in their moms basement a few more years.

And get 1-2 more SCOTUS seats so it takes even longer for liberals to change the Country.


I think without mail-in voting the young turn out would be higher in Trumps favor. Most smart kids see whats happening. But the ones who would vote for Biden..I see little to make them mad enough to actually go vote.

[Rush2Judge]

My crystal ball says it will be a below normal turnout for the simple reason it will take more effort. Certainly, getting an absentee ballot takes some work. I honestly don't know how each State is going to adjust for Covid. My guess is the so-called blue States will make mail-in voting easier. And red Sates will leave it the same. Per usual, there are only a handful of States that matter.

And yes, I am very concerned about vote harvesting. We have absolutely seen the Democrats manufacturing votes once they know the target number to win (see Al Franken Minnesota Senatorial race).

[muzzlebrake]

Mega maga

[jerp]

It is somewhat logical that turnout is low in states with a large one-party majority. Republicans in California and New York for example may say "why bother?" but the no-shows really hurts down-ballot Republicans. Texas came in near the bottom at less than 52% in 2016. Not sure if that's because many democrats said "why bother?" assuming Trump would win, or because some Trump supporters got lazy and figured he would win without their vote.

[elgato]

And how many dems are really excited about Kamala Harris? She was at 3.5% in the polls when she dropped out of the primary.

Which brings up what I perceive to be the real concern with this election. Biden is 78 and it is far to easy to see a scenario where he doesn't finish his term. A very believable situation with a Biden victory means Kamala Harris becomes President and Nancy Pelosi becomes V.P. That doesn't feel good to me.

I don't know what the turnout will be but that scenario gets me out to vote!

[BrianL]

Which brings up what I perceive to be the real concern with this election. Biden is 78 and it is far to easy to see a scenario where he doesn't finish his term. A very believable situation with a Biden victory means Kamala Harris becomes President and Nancy Pelosi becomes V.P. That doesn't feel good to me.

I don't know what the turnout will be but that scenario gets me out to vote!

Think about a contested election past Trump's term on January 20th, 2021 at noon.. Speaker becomes President till the winner is determined.