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Old 08-24-2017, 12:56 PM   #701
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Sometimes the best way to prepare is to pack up and LEAVE!
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Old 08-24-2017, 12:57 PM   #702
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Latest Discussion

Quote:
Hurricane Harvey Special Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This special advisory is being issued to update Harvey's initial
and forecast intensities through the 48-hour period. The storm
surge values in the public advisory have also been updated based on
the new intensity forecast.

Recent data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Harvey's maximum sustained winds have
increased to 75 kt. The Air Force plane measured maximum 850-mb
flight-level winds of 88 kt and reliable SFMR winds around 75 kt.
Based on the hurricane's current rate of intensification, the
forecast intensities at 12 and 24 h have been raised by 15 kt,
with a 10-kt increase at 36 h. There are no changes to the track or
wind radii forecast with this special advisory.

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track
of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All
locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should
be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge.

Note that this special advisory takes the place of the scheduled
100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey has intensified rapidly, and is forecast to be a major
hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge,
rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by
tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the
hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Life-threatening flooding is expected across much of the Texas
coast from heavy rainfall of 12 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts
as high as 30 inches, from Friday through early next week. Please
refer to products from your local National Weather Service office
and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the
flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1800Z 24.4N 93.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Old 08-24-2017, 12:59 PM   #703
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Now 85 mph and growing fast

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Old 08-24-2017, 12:59 PM   #704
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NHC now forecast 125mph at landfall(36Hours) in 1PM Special Advisory. Still looks like Rockport area from their image.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:00 PM   #705
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Quote:
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Sometimes the best way to prepare is to pack up and LEAVE!
Exactly what I just told my parents that lives in Orange County.
Prayers for all.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:01 PM   #706
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I've been diligent about starting my generator every 2 weeks just for this week. Earlier this year (or maybe it was last) I downsized my generator to something I can move around easy and with a tolerable decibel level. We have a plan to consolidate the garage freezer contents into the house and only plan to run one refrigerator and a couple of fans. Downloading movies on the ipads and phones. I won't get caught like I did after Ike when I had to run an extension cable to my neighbor who let me plug in 15 minutes of every hour to keep my fridge cold. He drove to Nacodoches the day after Ike btw. That was the closest place that had any generators in stock.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:02 PM   #707
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Originally Posted by JLivi1224 View Post
Yep! I'm all the way up the coast near beaumont, but I'm making preps. I don't like the looks of this at all. I think there's s good chance landfall is further east than expected.
Yep shifting east a little just like Bluewater and Johnny said. Once inland , it is going to mill around like a hog under a feeder for a couple days. Who knows how much rain will fall on the east side, not to mention a future landfall that direction if it goes back off shore
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:07 PM   #708
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Well crap...
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:08 PM   #709
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Do yall reckon a Honda EU2000I is sufficient enough to run my freezer and maybe a fan?
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:09 PM   #710
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Please remember I am strictly referring to Houston and surrounding areas here...........would I be wrong in assuming that it would actually be better (rain wise for Houston) if the storm continues east and hit closer to Galveston?


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Old 08-24-2017, 01:11 PM   #711
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In Beaumont as well... Not going to get too serious about it, but I will go buy a couple cases of water and fill up the gas cans this afternoon just in case it heads more east.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:12 PM   #712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FLASH_OUTDOORS View Post
Please remember I am strictly referring to Houston and surrounding areas here...........would I be wrong in assuming that it would actually be better (rain wise for Houston) if the storm continues east and hit closer to Galveston?


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This is what I was thinking, it's almost like you'd rather it hit closer to houston and let the "dirty" side hit LA
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:12 PM   #713
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Originally Posted by FLASH_OUTDOORS View Post
Please remember I am strictly referring to Houston and surrounding areas here...........would I be wrong in assuming that it would actually be better (rain wise for Houston) if the storm continues east and hit closer to Galveston?


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Same rain amount estimate it would just be moved around by 100mph+ winds.


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Old 08-24-2017, 01:13 PM   #714
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Quote:
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Do yall reckon a Honda EU2000I is sufficient enough to run my freezer and maybe a fan?


Yes


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Old 08-24-2017, 01:16 PM   #715
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Dumb question....is there a certain side of the hurricane that is more ripe to spinning off tornadoes?
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:17 PM   #716
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Yes


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Thanks. I dont know how much juice a freezer and fridge need to run. We have one of each. The freezer is more important, but if i can run both i will.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:17 PM   #717
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FLASH_OUTDOORS View Post
Please remember I am strictly referring to Houston and surrounding areas here...........would I be wrong in assuming that it would actually be better (rain wise for Houston) if the storm continues east and hit closer to Galveston?


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Evacuations would be a complete nightmare.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:18 PM   #718
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Dumb question....is there a certain side of the hurricane that is more ripe to spinning off tornadoes?
The northeast and east side. Thats where all the bad stuff congregates. Higher winds, rain, tornadoes. Thats why its called the "dirty side"
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:18 PM   #719
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I'm guessing national gas prices will start to rise as well.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:19 PM   #720
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Evacuations would be a complete nightmare.
ahhhh rita. that wonderful 20 hour dallas trip...
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:19 PM   #721
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloodstick View Post
Thanks. I dont know how much juice a freezer and fridge need to run. We have one of each. The freezer is more important, but if i can run both i will.


You could run both with room for more. A few lamps and a small window unit too!


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Old 08-24-2017, 01:19 PM   #722
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most recent euro may be a worst case scenario.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:21 PM   #723
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Evacuations would be a complete nightmare.
You just brought back nightmares from Rita... #neveragain
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:21 PM   #724
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most recent euro may be a worst case scenario.


What's it showing?


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Old 08-24-2017, 01:21 PM   #725
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GOES-16 VIEW
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:21 PM   #726
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ahhhh rita. that wonderful 20 hour dallas trip...
This is why if i go to work tomorrow (Woodlands) i will NOT go home via I45 to Huntsville.

I will find a back road
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:21 PM   #727
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mind you this is forecast hour 120. 5 days from now. Thats a hurricane sitting off the coast of galveston on Tuesday.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:22 PM   #728
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What's it showing?


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Nudging up to the coast and then heading East (over water) along the coast.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:22 PM   #729
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Quote:
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ahhhh rita. that wonderful 20 hour dallas trip...
Ugh. Yes , the memories.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:24 PM   #730
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:25 PM   #731
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So you start your generator once a month to be prepared. No one does but that's ok. Cmon man...



Say this storm hits us hard. You lose power and in a few days you run out of gas.

The guy buying all the gas today won't look so foolish will he?
I start mine once a month also. Got it out yesterday......it started before the first pull was done. Let it run for about 15 minutes and cut off the gas supply.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:26 PM   #732
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:26 PM   #733
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You could run both with room for more. A few lamps and a small window unit too!


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Not sure about that, the generator only pushes 13.5 amps I believe. Plug in that much stuff at once and you will likely pop the breaker on it when motors cycle on and off.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:27 PM   #734
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Evacuations would be a complete nightmare.

I evacuation 2/15/2016.

I hope Madisonville is far enough north.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:27 PM   #735
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mind you this is forecast hour 120. 5 days from now. Thats a hurricane sitting off the coast of galveston on Tuesday.
That sucks.... Lets not go there.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:28 PM   #736
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I start mine once a month also. Got it out yesterday......it started before the first pull was done. Let it run for about 15 minutes and cut off the gas supply.
Yep. Do the same here.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:29 PM   #737
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Not sure about that, the generator only pushes 13.5 amps I believe. Plug in that much stuff at once and you will likely pop the breaker on it when motors cycle on and off.
I'll most likely run the freezer for 10-15 minutes then the fridge for a few to keep it all cool.

Thats all if we even lose power this far north, but im pretty sure we will. A cow down the road can fart and we lose power on most days.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:30 PM   #738
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String theory???
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:31 PM   #739
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'Merica ain't 'fraid a no herrican!
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:31 PM   #740
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mind you this is forecast hour 120. 5 days from now. Thats a hurricane sitting off the coast of galveston on Tuesday.
Yep and a cat 2 at that i been referring to this prediction all along in this thread.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:31 PM   #741
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Quote:
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I'll most likely run the freezer for 10-15 minutes then the fridge for a few to keep it all cool.

Thats all if we even lose power this far north, but im pretty sure we will. A cow down the road can fart and we lose power on most days.
I think you will be fine with a refrigerator and freezer plugged in. I was doubting whoever said you could run a window unit and fans on top of that.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:31 PM   #742
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'Merica ain't 'fraid a no herrican!
Ted Nugent?
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:35 PM   #743
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This one developing so quick and pressure, reminds me of the stories about Hurricane Audrey.

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Old 08-24-2017, 01:41 PM   #744
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Have Friends heading to Gonzalez to stay in a hotel..... wouldn't Gonzalez area be prone to more tornadoes compared to the Victoria/Edna area? Idk that maybe a dumb question lol just trying to figure this beast out.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:42 PM   #745
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I'll most likely run the freezer for 10-15 minutes then the fridge for a few to keep it all cool.

Thats all if we even lose power this far north, but im pretty sure we will. A cow down the road can fart and we lose power on most days.
For things like fridges, it isn't the running power of the fridge, it is the startup power that you have to consider. Your 2000i might be real close on the amount of power it can handle for the startup of fridge/freezers.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:43 PM   #746
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Not sure about that, the generator only pushes 13.5 amps I believe. Plug in that much stuff at once and you will likely pop the breaker on it when motors cycle on and off.

That depends a lot on which Generator you have, there are lots of different models. What is the WATT rating of your generator. Usually given in 2 numbers normal output and peak output. Normal is for max continuous peak is for max with motor startup.

Ohms law volts X amps = Watts

so 120X13.5= 1620 watts

On running a fridge and freezer at the same time, hook them in at different times so startup is not hitting from both at the same time. Also just run until they shut off. Most generators run time on a tank of fuel are listed for 50% load so if running more than that their estimated fuel consumption will be higher

Watts/volts = amperage

one horse power is 748 watts

Last edited by kmon; 08-24-2017 at 01:48 PM.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:47 PM   #747
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One thing we learned about generators from not having power for 13 days after Ike, is that it's pretty expensive to keep one going constantly.

I guess what I'm saying is it's kind of a fallacy to spend $25-30 per day to keep a freezer going after a week. Perhaps if you have a ton of meat. However, we eventually unplugged our freezer as it didn't make sense to keep it going just to save a couple hundred dollars worth of meat.

Post Ike, I would have much preferred to run a window unit AC, lights and TV over the freezer.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:48 PM   #748
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I've alway lived by the "plug stuff in until the breaker trips." Then you unplug the last thing and rock and roll


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Old 08-24-2017, 01:50 PM   #749
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmon View Post
That depends a lot on which Generator you have, there are lots of different models. What is the WATT rating of your generator. Usually given in 2 numbers normal output and peak output. Normal is for max continuous peak is for max with motor startup.

Ohms law volts X amps = Watts

so 120X13.5= 1620 watts

Watts/volts = amperage

one horse power is 748 watts
The gentleman asked specifically about the Honda E2000i, which is what I was addressing. I have owned this generator and was cautioning him about it's max amp load.

AC Output 120V 2000W max. (16.7A) 1600W rated (13.3A)
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:51 PM   #750
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GarGuy View Post
Yep and a cat 2 at that i been referring to this prediction all along in this thread.
If this were the case, most people around Houston and Beaumont areas would be in a total bind. The roads could potentially be flooded and not have any way of getting out of town before it makes landfall again.
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