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Old 04-06-2020, 02:20 PM   #51
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Right now I think it's foolish to try and predict what the Market will do in the coming months. What many experts think based on years of knowledge is going to be drastically different going forward since the Stimulus package politicians recently passed basically Nationalized our business model. The Federal Reserve will hold notes on all business giving them far to much power to manipulate capital markets.
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Old 04-06-2020, 02:22 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Pintail45 View Post
Rule #1: Never trust anyone that proclaims to know when the bottom is.
Yep. My best indicator of a bottom has always been when the most people freak and decide that there's no way THIS can be the bottom. In all the past declines, I've had one client call and refuse to be talked out of selling on the bottom day each time. It was the same client in the previous two big crashes in 2003 and 2009, actually. I refused to buy stocks for them any more in April of 2009 when they called to get back in after selling in March. I was making money on their bad decisions, but they were losing every time. Not a good situation. They're not clients anymore. There always seems to be 1 at the bottom of every correction and crash.

I had a client call and sell on March 23rd this time, when the Dow closed at 18K. I'll let you know in a couple months if they were the ones that sold on the bottom day this time or not. They're the only ones that have sold so far.

Last edited by Shane; 04-06-2020 at 02:24 PM.
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Old 04-06-2020, 02:27 PM   #53
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Why say anything if/when they sell? I thought no one could time the market top or bottom?

Stocks go up...and I mean WAY up and I get talked as a fool for saying maybe people should sell.
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Old 04-06-2020, 02:42 PM   #54
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Yep. My best indicator of a bottom has always been when the most people freak and decide that there's no way THIS can be the bottom. In all the past declines, I've had one client call and refuse to be talked out of selling on the bottom day each time. It was the same client in the previous two big crashes in 2003 and 2009, actually. I refused to buy stocks for them any more in April of 2009 when they called to get back in after selling in March. I was making money on their bad decisions, but they were losing every time. Not a good situation. They're not clients anymore. There always seems to be 1 at the bottom of every correction and crash.

I had a client call and sell on March 23rd this time, when the Dow closed at 18K. I'll let you know in a couple months if they were the ones that sold on the bottom day this time or not. They're the only ones that have sold so far.

Talked to my FA that same day to discuss & should have went with my gut...I'll let you know in a couple of months if I'm a putz for not buying a little that day.
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Old 04-06-2020, 02:54 PM   #55
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Why say anything if/when they sell? I thought no one could time the market top or bottom?

Stocks go up...and I mean WAY up and I get talked as a fool for saying maybe people should sell.
Well, because it's my job to give them the best advice I know how to give them, and selling in a panic - especially when the market is really low already - is never a good idea.

99% of the time when people are as panicky as you were, they're wrong. You were a genius this time though.
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Old 04-06-2020, 03:45 PM   #56
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Depends on what one means by "recovered".

Markets went up 100% off bottom in less than 2 years. But took 4 years to reach new all time highs.

If you take the average 2 year high from pre- 08/2008 then ??

The difference is the markets drifter lower from 10/2007 until they hit bottom in 03/2009 So it's opinion on where we recovered from exactly.
Simple. I'm talking from the market level when it started dropping in Oct, 2007, until it got back to that level. It was not 18mos.
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Old 04-06-2020, 06:30 PM   #57
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Simple. I'm talking from the market level when it started dropping in Oct, 2007, until it got back to that level. It was not 18mos.
Then you'd be correct.. But it did take 2.5 years to hit bottom also LOL

To me "recovered" doesn't have to mean setting new all time highs.

But I have no dog in this fight.
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Old 04-07-2020, 01:44 AM   #58
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Then you'd be correct.. But it did take 2.5 years to hit bottom also LOL

To me "recovered" doesn't have to mean setting new all time highs.
"Recovered" means "recovering" back to the peak where it was when it started falling.

I don't know where you and Tevor73402 get your information/numbers, but 2.5 years to hit bottom is incorrect and 18 months to recover is incorrect.

S&P 500 peaked on October 10, 2007 @ 1565, then it bottomed on March 9, 2009 @ 676, a drop of 56% over 17 months.

Then, it did not get back to the previous peak of 1565 until March 28, 2013, which was about 5 1/2 years from peak until it recovered back to that peak. It took 4 years from the market bottom on March 9, 2009 to get back to the previous market high.

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Old 04-07-2020, 07:24 AM   #59
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Well, because it's my job to give them the best advice I know how to give them, and selling in a panic - especially when the market is really low already - is never a good idea.

99% of the time when people are as panicky as you were, they're wrong. You were a genius this time though.
I must be the only guy that panics before markets drop.

I still don't think you get what I'm saying..maybe one day. What I'm talking about only happens once every decade or so...so it doesn't matter. We will all be conditioned (again) to buy and hold is the only game. Until the next debacle
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Old 04-07-2020, 07:34 AM   #60
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At first it seems funny. But overall I'd wager you get better advise from conservative hunters versus the media or pretty much everywhere else that's biased.

Always have to pay attention...which is why I said "overall"
Yep, I always have trusted my Retirement Financial Advisory. And after 9/11 while working for Southwest Airlines, I trusted Herb Kelleher and set up my retirement confident and conservative. "Manage In The Good Times To Protect The Company (me) In The Bad Times".

Good advise for all of us IMHO
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Old 04-07-2020, 08:02 AM   #61
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I must be the only guy that panics before markets drop.

I still don't think you get what I'm saying..maybe one day. What I'm talking about only happens once every decade or so...so it doesn't matter. We will all be conditioned (again) to buy and hold is the only game. Until the next debacle
I get what you are saying for sure after these most recent events and the 2007/08. Not counting the 80/90s now that I am knocking on 60 in the next couple of years. Never again! When/if it recovers this time I am going to Reallocate and put it on cruise control.

Last edited by tps7742; 04-07-2020 at 08:07 AM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 08:04 AM   #62
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"Recovered" means "recovering" back to the peak where it was when it started falling.

I don't know where you and Tevor73402 get your information/numbers, but 2.5 years to hit bottom is incorrect and 18 months to recover is incorrect.

S&P 500 peaked on October 10, 2007 @ 1565, then it bottomed on March 9, 2009 @ 676, a drop of 56% over 17 months.

Then, it did not get back to the previous peak of 1565 until March 28, 2013, which was about 5 1/2 years from peak until it recovered back to that peak. It took 4 years from the market bottom on March 9, 2009 to get back to the previous market high.

Sorry I meant 1.5 years to fall... My bad. I had dates correct just can't do math

My point is the SPY was up 90% in 13 months after it hit bottom. And up 150% within 18 months... Those numbers are rough. If you leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007 then it did recover within 2 years.
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:10 AM   #63
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Market is off and running second day in a row. I would imagine anyone with money had seen the virus # way different than predicted and are going in
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:19 AM   #64
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Itís normal in bear markets to have spectacular run ups. In fact the trend is great run ups and then a retesting of the previous lows. I am using this to sell out of positions acquired a few weeks ago and then I will wait and see. Unemployment continues to skyrocket and corporate earnings will be destroyed.
At a certain point nobody knows anything and depending on your time horizon it may or may not matter.


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Old 04-07-2020, 12:16 PM   #65
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Sorry I meant 1.5 years to fall... My bad. I had dates correct just can't do math

My point is the SPY was up 90% in 13 months after it hit bottom. And up 150% within 18 months... Those numbers are rough. If you leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007 then it did recover within 2 years.
Dadgummit, Tim. I don't mean to keep arguing with you, but I have something in my DNA that just cannot accept wrong information and feel the need to correct it.

The S&P 500 was NOT up 90% in 13 months. a 90% increase would have been 1284, and it did not achieve that until Jan, 2011...or 22 months.

It also was not up 150% in 18 months. Remember, it has to double in order to increase by 100%. (if something loses 50% of its value, it has to increase 100% to get back to even.) It took considerably longer than 18 months to increase 150%.

I don't understand your logic to "leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007." Why do that? That is manipulating your numbers. The market peaked in October, 2007, so that is what the drop and recovery is based on/off.

I apologize for my compulsion to correct wrong information.
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Old 04-07-2020, 12:19 PM   #66
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What's the upside to this thread? Spread panic and negativity....
No person in history has been able to time the market and I doubt any of us are seeking financial advice for our future livelihoods on TBH (at least I hope not!)
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Old 04-07-2020, 12:22 PM   #67
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Dadgummit, Tim. I don't mean to keep arguing with you, but I have something in my DNA that just cannot accept wrong information and feel the need to correct it.

The S&P 500 was NOT up 90% in 13 months. a 90% increase would have been 1284, and it did not achieve that until Jan, 2011...or 22 months.

It also was not up 150% in 18 months. Remember, it has to double in order to increase by 100%. (if something loses 50% of its value, it has to increase 100% to get back to even.) It took considerably longer than 18 months to increase 150%.

I don't understand your logic to "leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007." Why do that? That is manipulating your numbers. The market peaked in October, 2007, so that is what the drop and recovery is based on/off.

I apologize for my compulsion to correct wrong information.
Hey! Get off of Tims lawn!
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Old 04-07-2020, 01:09 PM   #68
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What's the upside to this thread? Spread panic and negativity....
No person in history has been able to time the market and I doubt any of us are seeking financial advice for our future livelihoods on TBH (at least I hope not!)
Have to admit I trust information here more than most places.
Let's get back on track.
What's worth buying these days?
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Old 04-07-2020, 01:11 PM   #69
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Have to admit I trust information here more than most places.
Let's get back on track.
What's worth buying these days?
ok, scary but I'm looking at American Airlines and Schlumberger and BP myself - don't follow my uneducated lead though!
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Old 04-07-2020, 01:28 PM   #70
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The market is one of the best indicators of where the pandemic is going. If we continue to get good news coming in around the world, especially in hot spots like NY, Italy, and S. Korea then the market will go back up but that doesn't mean a 29K Dow. It means we will have to see what the long term impact is on revenues. If you are like me and more concerned with the dividends coming off your stocks as cash flow then it's a frightening picture as you can't pay dividends without profits and Q2 is already shot. If you are selling right now then all you are doing is locking in your losses. Remember, you havn't lost anything until you sell something.
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Old 04-07-2020, 01:40 PM   #71
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ULTA. Lots of cash - assets- very little debt. Lady that runs it is a powerhouse.
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Old 04-07-2020, 01:48 PM   #72
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Hey! Get off of Tims lawn!
Yard
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Old 04-07-2020, 01:56 PM   #73
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Looks like short term may be the best money maker right now.
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Old 04-07-2020, 02:23 PM   #74
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Yard
Yard....that's a little less than a meter?
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Old 04-07-2020, 02:32 PM   #75
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ULTA. Lots of cash - assets- very little debt. Lady that runs it is a powerhouse.
Bought ULTA in 2008 for $5 and some change when I noticed the ridiculous business they had every time my wife needed something from there.
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:26 PM   #76
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Captain- You did good. I’m actually researching a company called PLUG. I can see it possibly being good investment in 5-6 years
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:38 PM   #77
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OP, 12-13k? What are you smoking?

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Old 04-07-2020, 05:17 PM   #78
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OP, 12-13k? What are you smoking?

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...article_inline
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Old 04-07-2020, 07:02 PM   #79
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Some of you may want to go back and read my original post. I discussed where different people are in their investment lives.

My clients are mostly very near retirement or in retirement. They do not have large exposure to the market. Why? Because they were diligent in saving money over many years and are in a position that they do not have to have a lot of market exposure to live out their lives on the money they have. Yes, most all of them are in "buy and hold" because they do not have their life savings at risk in the market. Pretty good position to be in wouldn't you say?

Once again - if you are years away from retirement and not needing to live off of your investments then by all means - trade away.

My post was not to be negative - as I stated - my post was simply what I think could potentially happen in this current market. If you think that is "doom and gloom" then I am sorry but I am certainly not the only one out there who thinks the market could tank for awhile.

If you read the link I posted before this post then you will see there are some other pretty experienced folks saying the same the same thing.
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Old 04-07-2020, 07:28 PM   #80
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When do you see or how far out is the next low if throwing out a wag??
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Old 04-07-2020, 07:45 PM   #81
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I have no idea. I have said here many times - timing the market is useless.

I simply stated that based on my many years of going through recessions, savings and loan debacles, 911, the credit crisis in 2008 both personally and with clients that it is wise to be careful in times like this. I stated that I thought the market could go very low so proceed with caution. That is not fear mongering - that is just based on having lived through many up and down markets.
Obviously some here do not like hearing that and that is OK - to each his own.

Last edited by Huntingfool; 04-07-2020 at 07:47 PM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 11:15 PM   #82
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He won't answer questions like that. They almost always hold. I'd love to find a good FA that told clients to reduce holdings to avoid risk while this was heading our way.[/QUOTE]

I got out at 27960 in late Feb. I got the SARS EBOLA H1N1 its just going to be a little dip bs thrown at me all day long. I'm like "Tom they we welding folks into their apartments and shooting folks in the head at road blocks in China. Trump just said in a presser that we could lock down entire cities. This crap is blowing up in Europe. I'm getting out!" It was fight I'm glad I fought!
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Old 04-07-2020, 11:19 PM   #83
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OP, 12-13k? What are you smoking?

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Donít throw stones. If the government keeps the economy shut down past May into June or July, I think the low predicted here is possible.
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Old 04-08-2020, 12:08 PM   #84
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Say the government allowed restaurants to reopen today. Are you going to take your family to enjoy a sit down meal?

Would you feel comfortable meeting your elderly parents or grandparents there?

This virus will likely have effects for a good while on how we as a society socialize. That in-turn will likely impact our economy which has considerable dependence on consumer spending at restaurants, entertainment, personal services (hair, nails, etc.)
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Old 04-08-2020, 12:54 PM   #85
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^^^^^
Wrong thread.
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:40 PM   #86
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IMO the market is nowhere near its bottom. I think it could go to 12-13,000. If you are young and a long term investor then it will eventually recover. In the credit crisis of 2008 with 40-50% losses, the market eventually recovered those loses and made nice gains but that happened over a number of years. That is why younger investors can afford to take more risk because they have time on their side.

If you are at or near retirement then that is a different story. The combination of withdrawing money for income coupled with a severe decline in the market is a bad combination. This is why investing models gradually decrease the percentage in stocks as one ages and nears retirement.

Hope I am wrong but I think we will see the DOW continue to decline for awhile.
Getting further away from your call each day. Long ways to drop now!

Again I ask...What could/would make the markets fall that far? Or even below 20k again? Everything is known at this point..We know unemployment will be high...we know Q1 will be horrible.
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:55 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by Burnadell View Post
Dadgummit, Tim. I don't mean to keep arguing with you, but I have something in my DNA that just cannot accept wrong information and feel the need to correct it.

The S&P 500 was NOT up 90% in 13 months. a 90% increase would have been 1284, and it did not achieve that until Jan, 2011...or 22 months.

It also was not up 150% in 18 months. Remember, it has to double in order to increase by 100%. (if something loses 50% of its value, it has to increase 100% to get back to even.) It took considerably longer than 18 months to increase 150%.

I don't understand your logic to "leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007." Why do that? That is manipulating your numbers. The market peaked in October, 2007, so that is what the drop and recovery is based on/off.

I apologize for my compulsion to correct wrong information.
What was the low on 03/02/2009?
What was the high 13 months later on 04/02/2010?

You are a financial guy. All I ever hear from you guys is that no one can time markets (or peaks/bottoms). Just because a stock or market does a quick jump that does not mean that's exactly what it was worth.

If "recovered" means getting back 100% of previous peak then no athlete ever recovers from an injury. And market dynamics are different going forward after a crash. And people average in to the markets... I'm sure there are a very slim few people who bought at the peak but 99% didn't.

Are you telling clients to not buy now because markets are up 5,500 points off the low?
If a client asks how much he's down AFTER the drop off 2008.. Do you say you could have sold for "x" on the peak day? Hell no you don't. You most likely tell them what they're averaged in at which is WAY lower than the peak.
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:58 PM   #88
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Say the government allowed restaurants to reopen today. Are you going to take your family to enjoy a sit down meal?

Would you feel comfortable meeting your elderly parents or grandparents there?

This virus will likely have effects for a good while on how we as a society socialize. That in-turn will likely impact our economy which has considerable dependence on consumer spending at restaurants, entertainment, personal services (hair, nails, etc.)
Yes.

No, old sick people need to quarantine.

Yep, but the impact won't be nearly as bad if we get the economy opened back up sooner rather than later. That doesn't mean things will instantly be "back to normal" as if the virus didn't exist. But we can open up and still take reasonable precautions.
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Old 04-11-2020, 07:02 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by Huntingfool View Post
IMO the market is nowhere near its bottom. I think it could go to 12-13,000. If you are young and a long term investor then it will eventually recover. In the credit crisis of 2008 with 40-50% losses, the market eventually recovered those loses and made nice gains but that happened over a number of years. That is why younger investors can afford to take more risk because they have time on their side.

If you are at or near retirement then that is a different story. The combination of withdrawing money for income coupled with a severe decline in the market is a bad combination. This is why investing models gradually decrease the percentage in stocks as one ages and nears retirement.

Hope I am wrong but I think we will see the DOW continue to decline for awhile.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huntingfool View Post
Some of you may want to go back and read my original post. I discussed where different people are in their investment lives.

My clients are mostly very near retirement or in retirement. They do not have large exposure to the market. Why? Because they were diligent in saving money over many years and are in a position that they do not have to have a lot of market exposure to live out their lives on the money they have. Yes, most all of them are in "buy and hold" because they do not have their life savings at risk in the market. Pretty good position to be in wouldn't you say?

Once again - if you are years away from retirement and not needing to live off of your investments then by all means - trade away.

My post was not to be negative - as I stated - my post was simply what I think could potentially happen in this current market. If you think that is "doom and gloom" then I am sorry but I am certainly not the only one out there who thinks the market could tank for awhile.

If you read the link I posted before this post then you will see there are some other pretty experienced folks saying the same the same thing.
Why in the world would one hold long when DOW is at 24,000 if their FA says the DOW will drop to half of that?

If you said there's a 10% chance the markets drop 10-20% then I could see holding. But to seem sure it will fall 40-50% and to have them hold is plain wrong.

I don't care if one has a billion in cash.. Why hold 100k in stocks if you seriously think they will lose half their value?
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Old 04-11-2020, 07:07 PM   #90
jaime1982
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just 41 years as a financial planner with a securities license - over four decades of seeing every kind of market and situation you can imagine. Working first hand with hundreds of successful clients. Your background and why folks should deem you relevant?
I'm guessing this was a market situation that nobody could have ever imagined lol.

I'm glad this isnt going as predicted although we aren't in the clear just yet.

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Old 04-11-2020, 10:14 PM   #91
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What was the low on 03/02/2009?
What was the high 13 months later on 04/02/2010?


You are a financial guy. All I ever hear from you guys is that no one can time markets (or peaks/bottoms). Just because a stock or market does a quick jump that does not mean that's exactly what it was worth.

If "recovered" means getting back 100% of previous peak then no athlete ever recovers from an injury. And market dynamics are different going forward after a crash. And people average in to the markets... I'm sure there are a very slim few people who bought at the peak but 99% didn't.

Are you telling clients to not buy now because markets are up 5,500 points off the low?
If a client asks how much he's down AFTER the drop off 2008.. Do you say you could have sold for "x" on the peak day? Hell no you don't. You most likely tell them what they're averaged in at which is WAY lower than the peak.

03/02/09 S&P 500 700
04/02/10 S&P 500 1178

That is a 68% increase...so what is your point?

Comparing an athlete's recovery to the market?

You would be wrong on that 99% figure. Yes, many people invested at the peak because they invest when they have money available to invest. They do not try to time the market. The above 13-month increase demonstrates why they shouldn't. Those who bail out usually don't do it at the top but only after they panic from losing 20-30%. Then, they won't get back in until they are convinced the market recovery is not a dead cat bounce. Your dates above reflect that if they were out of the market during those 13 months, they would have given up the opportunity for a 68% increase.

You are a smart guy, Tim, but you do not understand these things as much as you think you do. Quit digging that hole or get a longer shovel.
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Old 04-12-2020, 04:25 PM   #92
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As of this weekend, Buffet is holding $128 Billion cash. Read into it what you like.

Meanwhile, I'll watch this thread with amusement from the sidelines. I will say to those who argue with such certainty based on their brilliant financial acumen and foresight? History teaches this: when the future proves you right, we'll agree you got lucky. When the future proves you wrong, we'll laugh and quote old threads.
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Old 04-12-2020, 05:06 PM   #93
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Oh well, i bought a bunch over the last two weeks. If the market keeps dropping, i will keep buying more. It will come up eventually.
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Old 04-12-2020, 05:13 PM   #94
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A&M90- Heck ya I would take the wife and go eat tonight if someplace was open. If my parents wanted to meet me there it would be their choice as free Americans. I’m would not encourage them but I have never told my 84 year old Dad what to do.
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Old 04-12-2020, 05:14 PM   #95
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Tomorrow could be a very interesting day. OPEC+ cuts 9.7 million BPD of oil for the next 2 months. I predict Dow at 25,000 by COB Friday.
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Old 04-12-2020, 05:33 PM   #96
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As of this weekend, Buffet is holding $128 Billion cash. Read into it what you like.
And how much was "Buffett" holding a month ago? Six months, a year ago? Need to put it into context for it to be worth anything.
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Old 04-12-2020, 07:30 PM   #97
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And how much was "Buffett" holding a month ago? Six months, a year ago? Need to put it into context for it to be worth anything.
Years. Last major investment was four years ago.
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Old 04-12-2020, 07:50 PM   #98
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Sorry I meant 1.5 years to fall... My bad. I had dates correct just can't do math

My point is the SPY was up 90% in 13 months after it hit bottom. And up 150% within 18 months... Those numbers are rough. If you leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007 then it did recover within 2 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burnadell View Post
03/02/09 S&P 500 700
04/02/10 S&P 500 1178

That is a 68% increase...so what is your point?

Comparing an athlete's recovery to the market?

You would be wrong on that 99% figure. Yes, many people invested at the peak because they invest when they have money available to invest. They do not try to time the market. The above 13-month increase demonstrates why they shouldn't. Those who bail out usually don't do it at the top but only after they panic from losing 20-30%. Then, they won't get back in until they are convinced the market recovery is not a dead cat bounce. Your dates above reflect that if they were out of the market during those 13 months, they would have given up the opportunity for a 68% increase.

You are a smart guy, Tim, but you do not understand these things as much as you think you do. Quit digging that hole or get a longer shovel.
You really want to argue....

I'm done arguing about what recovery means. You seem to want it both ways by being a long term guy but then act like short term pops mean something. That's fine.

I see the low was 666.79 for S&P and was 1217 on 04/18

Sorry I didn't take all the extra time to zoom in on exact dates, break out a calculator and calculate exact percentages...I did say my data was rough as we were talking about a general time frame as to when markets recovered.

Not even sure how we got down this rabbit hole.
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:09 PM   #99
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Oh well, i bought a bunch over the last two weeks. If the market keeps dropping, i will keep buying more. It will come up eventually.
This is what I've done as well. Got in around 3/19 with a pretty diverse portfolio IMO and have held most of them. I tweaked 4-5 times until I got it like I wanted and have bought more shares of what I currently have on the dips. I plan to sit on them but watch for more dips to continue buying the solid long-term ones. The ones I deem as short term I'll sell when they get to a certain number and use the proceeds to buy more of my long term shares. I'm new to this, but have been trying to do lots of research lately because I know over time they'll go up... Buy low and hold is my motto for awhile. We shall see
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:52 PM   #100
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Tomorrow could be a very interesting day. OPEC+ cuts 9.7 million BPD of oil for the next 2 months. I predict Dow at 25,000 by COB Friday.
I read that earlier today. I wonder what that will do on the market monday.
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