Tropical Weather Threat For Texas

[systemnt]

wow. Johnny...

[systemnt]

Looks like I'm the only one in my building downtown Houston. Parking garage was EMPTY!

My Parking space in one Houston (Lyondell tower) is available... I guarantee... cuz my *** aint getting stuck in Northbound traffic trying to get home today...

[ccbluewater]

Can't stress this enough.. if you're in the path of this monster, and near the coast... get the hell out. Since going to sleep at midnight Harvey has deepened, and is downright scary looking on Infrared imagery. Getting that buzzsaw look, and I'll bet we see a pin hole eye later on this morning.

There is an extremely warm deep water eddy that The storm is feeding from, which is giving it a boost in intensifying at the moment.

Unfortunately, I don't see anything to lead to significant weakening before landfall in 15-20 hours.

Just my opinion, not an official forecast..

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[Pineywoods]

wow. Johnny...

X2

[Johnny]

Our house (NW houston) is fairly high (one story) and my moms house is in meyerland and is also a one story (hasn't flooded, but all of their neighbors have).

What are yalls thoughts on convincing her and her husband to come up here?

Unfortunately, she needs to go ahead and get on out of there. She has been extremely lucky she has not flooded in past events where she lives.

A few have asked for what type of rainfall amounts will be coming. I will try to get some maps up shortly since the path looks to be a little more clearer this morning...giving respect to the ECMWF and GFS models. The rainfall totals will be staggering and for those who think it is just drama, you need to get your head out of the sand.



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[LuBowhunter]

Tropical Weather Threat For Texas

Heading to the hanger to meet with the other pilots now. Going to make do one last check of all three birds. Setup our offices with cots and provisions, having maintenance check our generator one more time. Got my house sand bagged yesterday best the wife and I could (it won't matter we will lose it). She's going with her parents if I get the call to report for 24 hour duty. If the storm does does what what they say once we are able to get airborne we will be up servicing the residents and other agencies of Jefferson county until air asserts are not needed. We plan to have at least one bird in the air at all times during daylight hours for days to come after.

It's not looking good guys. I worked Ike and I believe this will be far worse given the rain chances.

[Tmag]

I wasn't around when Allison hit but 321 between Cleveland & Dayton has a few spots that when floods hit will cross 321. Seen a old Bronco by the VFW (near Cleveland) in the ditch completely submerged.

I'll need to spend my weekend in Conroe but I had planned to leave for Nebraska for hunting season

Allison put water over the roads in every direction from us and we got the least amount of rain in Cleveland at 21.5". SH321 was closed between Tarkington and town and between us and Dayton, hwy 105 was shut down across the river as flood waters covered the road about 3' deep. The water running down the ditches from Tarkington to the river was deep enough to run a boat down them, and the "Preserve"(Cypress Lakes) was a good 6-10' under water. Hwy 787 had water across it in several places.
The good thing is living on high enough ground to stay above the water line.

Looks like Charlie and Curt gonna get their first ride in a big Tarkington flood. Stay dry boys.

[hogslayer78]

It's not looking good brother... it seems like every update I see gets a little worse. I just have a hard time imagining what this thing can do if it just sits and creeps up the coast. The propane guy come out at 8:45pm last night to add 100 gallons to our tank for the back up generator. My wife is heading to the store now to get a few things in case we are trapped between the creeks for a few days. Yall be safe!

No sir! Y'all stay safe Josh. If you need anything let me know brother!

[Big Todd]

X2

X3

[ccbluewater]

Latest 7 day chart.

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[catslayer]

wow. Johnny...

X10
Scary words from a weatherman... really scary

[Johnny]

Here is a rainfall total map put out by the WPC. They have stressed to keep in mind that this QPF legend does not go over 20". As you can see, there is a large area maxed out at 20" and places inside that area could see quite a bit more. This map is not set in stone since it is hard to really know who will get what but y'all get the idea.





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[double lung]

Tropical Weather Threat For Texas

Pretty sobering words this morning from meteorologist Jeff Lindner...




This is focused to those individuals in the mandatory evacuation areas of:

*

Calhoun, Refugio, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces, Jackson, and Matagorda Counties

*

I have been to your lunch meetings and presented at your conferences, many of you have been on this mailing list for years and have come to trust what I say and the forecast produced.

*

This is “that storm”, this is “the storm” with only comparisons to Celia (1970) and Carla (1961) for your region. You face one of the most difficult decisions of your life, to stay or leave and for some the landfall of this hurricane will be a defining life moment broken into before and after Harvey. The reality is that some of you will lose everything you own in the next 24 hours, entire homes will be washed away and destroyed by the storm surge. *

*

You*must*leave, you cannot be in the storm surge inundation zones when Harvey moves ashore…the sea water is going to rise 8-12 feet above the ground in some of these counties along with battering waves that will beat structures to collapse. The coastline will forever be changed in the next 24 hours. You must make the correct decision and complete your preparations immediately and move inland. I am pleading with you to evacuate those areas under mandatory evacuation orders.

*

Jeff






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Thanks for sharing this...

Our family has a house in Lamar on Aransas Bay and some very close family friends have a house just down the road on St. Charles Bay. We came to the realization last night that both houses will probably be demolished.

Hard to think about all of the families that we have gotten to know over the years losing everything.

[Bayouboy]

Starting to get nasty in Texas City.

[CFBASEBALL09]

just got to work and traffic from cypress to the beltway on 290 was very light, but I am pretty sure that is going to change by mid day. Hoping we get the call that we are closing early so i don't have to sit in too much traffic on the way home. Once again thank you Johnny for this thread. You have not only been spot on and more accurate than the news (like always) but you have also been ahead of them. I know many on here appreciate all of your posts.