Tropical Weather Threat For Texas

[CityLimitSlayr]

Originally Posted by J Sweet

****, we are vacationing on SPI from Thursday through Monday. Better bring my board and fins!!!!

Funny, we'll be down there thursday-monday as well!

SMH, just my luck!

[Johnny]

Originally Posted by WItoTX

Playing devils advocate here. Everyone says to get prepared on this site. If I turn on the news or scour wunderground/weatherchannel/local news, I see literally see no mention of it whatsoever.

Why would the news not be covering this if it's an actual threat?

Again, not trying to be a smart ***, just looking for explanation for those of us who don't follow weather closely.

I don't watch the local news on T.V. but I'm sure they will be all over this before the day is out.

Edit: I'm thinking the Eclipse stole the show yesterday in the news. Back on track today.

[quarterback]

Thanks yet again to Johnny as well as the others who posted info. This is literally the first I've heard of the approaching storm but if these guys say it's coming, it's dam sure coming. Now I know.

[TXHunter1089]

Recommendations of legit sites to use to follow this thing?

[panhandlehunter]

Originally Posted by TXHunter1089

Recommendations of legit sites to use to follow this thing?

www.tropicaltidbits.com

[ccbluewater]

Originally Posted by AZST_bowhunter

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basi..._loop_ndfd.gif

Is this what you are talking about when you mention the ULL? I was just looking at that and wondering what this may do to the storm

The Upper Level Low is visible on Satellite imagery moving westward across the Gulf. It's very high in the atmosphere.. that will lead to a weakness which, whatever Harvey is, will "feel" and move towards that weakness.

There is also a frontal boundary that will stall out that further complicates things.

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[Ride_Klein]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/****...pos=0&ypos=259

[Jaybo31]

Originally Posted by SabreKiller

Suffice it to say you're gonna get more rain than what you want.

Lol, kinda what I was figuring

[BushHawg]

I never cancel plans based on weather forecasts, unless it's Johnny's. I have learned a lot about how this stuff works and is predicted from his threads over the years. All you coastal folks take care.

Having to rethink my plans on the river this weekend.

[gigem95]

Originally Posted by WItoTX

If there is one thing I have learned from our news channels, it is never too soon to start mass hysteria...I remember last year Ed Emmitt preaching for well over a week for everyone to be prepared (I can't remember the storm name), and then when the storm fizzled out, he yelled at everyone for being too prepared. That causes the boy who cried wolf syndrome.







Lol, I wouldn't call them pro's by any means, just that it seems like they do whatever they can to hype storms, no matter how minimal they are.







I gotcha. I wasn't questioning any prediction, more of looking for some insight as to why the news wouldn't cover a storm given their disposition to hype anything and everything. Trying to figure out what was different this time.

X2

[Bonesplitter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-wv.html

You can see the low in the upper levels spinning here, just south of Louisiana. Its moving SW fairly rapidly, if the storm was wound up already and fairly strong I think the ULL would have minimal affect on it. But in these early stages I could entertain a storm going farther north than expected right now. There is axweakness in the ridge over Tx so we are definitely in the line of fire, how far north or south along the coast is still a best guess...

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[ccbluewater]

Originally Posted by panhandlehunter

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Another great discussion site is the KHOU weather forum. There are some great professional Meteorologist that post on there. I am pretty sure I've seen a couple of the posters from here on there as well..

http://forums.khou.com/viewforum.php?f=2


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[gingib]

wow!!!

We need it but 10-20 inches is alot

[EastTexasMan]

Ugh, I want it DRY... we have a slough we can now cross that's finally dried up, don't need it to fill back up

[17ncs]

Originally Posted by Randy

Right on time, every stinking year.

Attachment 869573

Ha! You're not kidding. Good luck to all of you out there.

[bobc]

Watching from Central Texas, and hoping nothing bad comes down on you Coastal folks.

[snappertapper]

tagged. Been watching this one for a few days.

It sure looks like the euro is the preferred scenario right now.

[Kmart49]

Tagged

[Johnny]

Originally Posted by Jaybo31

Lol, kinda what I was figuring

I will post up possible rainfall total scenarios later today unless someone posts them up soon.

Originally Posted by Bonesplitter

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-wv.html

You can see the low in the upper levels spinning here, just south of Louisiana. Its moving SW fairly rapidly, if the storm was wound up already and fairly strong I think the ULL would have minimal affect on it. But in these early stages I could entertain a storm going farther north than expected right now. There is axweakness in the ridge over Tx so we are definitely in the line of fire, how far north or south along the coast is still a best guess...

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Yes sir and the Euro run seems logical maybe with a run towards Corpus then hugging the coastline and then coming inland in Louisiana. Also just can't rule out the stronger model runs like the GFS with rapid intensification all the way up till landfall. As of now, I don't see anything in the Gulf that would keep this storm in check. Good ventilation, low wind shear, bath water in the GOM etc.

[brrdnk]

It could be late Wednesday or early Thursday before it gets going. That does not leave much time with a late Friday to early Saturday landfall. Need to start preparing now if your on the coast. Really hope this is nothing more than a tropical storm.
Another good source for info-http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=59

[Tryton]

ABC 13 news in Houston is talking about it as something to keep an eye on.

[Clint]

Originally Posted by TXHunter1089

Recommendations of legit sites to use to follow this thing?

http://discussions.texasbowhunter.co...=658442&page=2

[TXHunter1089]

Originally Posted by Clint

http://discussions.texasbowhunter.co...=658442&page=2

HAHA

[Atfulldraw]

Timeline:

A few days ago (like 3) every model had this one in southern Mexico.

Two days ago it fizzled out to a tropical wave with no models showing a Texas impact.

Late yesterday, one model and Johnny had it possibly hitting Texas hard -- fully half of the models still showed south of Brownsville.

By 6 am, there were no models showing a Mexico hit.

At this rate, either Johnny will be right (or it will hit Pensacola by Saturday).

[gingib]

will be watching this closely. Man we need rain

[Palmetto]

tag

[SaltwaterSlick]

"Noah, how long can you tread water..." I'm just sayin'...

[1369]

Originally Posted by saltwaterslick

"noah, how long can you tread water..." i'm just sayin'... :d

[czechgrubworm]

I love following your wonderful Weather folks

[Atfulldraw]

Originally Posted by SaltwaterSlick

"Noah, how long can you tread water..." I'm just sayin'...

That comment knocked me out.

[bboswell]

Originally Posted by Stolle

Bring your ladders and boarding up skills

You have the airboat running to get us out of there?

[texasnavy05]

really bad news for this cotton farmer. 5-8 inches right now would all but wipeout our harvest. got 2k acres gonna be ready to pick next week...

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[Stolle]

Originally Posted by bboswell

You have the airboat running to get us out of there?

Yep! Shoalwater is another story! Only has 5 good cylinders

[Camsell7]

Wow, hadn't heard of this yet.

[Man]

local news finally picking up on it

[Smart]

11" of rain hurt the central Texas opener and destroyed our dove feed fields for the South opener. Just our **** luck.

[Muddy Bud]

Originally Posted by texasnavy05

really bad news for this cotton farmer. 5-8 inches right now would all but wipeout our harvest. got 2k acres gonna be ready to pick next week...

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I feel for you guys. Farmers have been running all day and all night since Sunday down here.

[Buff]

My lake is 6' low.....
I will take a good 10" rain

[Clint]

Originally Posted by Stolle

Yep! Shoalwater is another story! Only has 5 good cylinders

Yea, I've gathered you're not much of an Evinrude fan any more.

[Neck]

Originally Posted by gingib

wow!!!

We need it but 10-20 inches is alot

Where did you see 10 to 20 inches of rainfall? I really hope it is nowhere near that much!

[1369]

Originally Posted by neck

where did you see 10 to 20 inches of rainfall? I really hope it is nowhere near that much!

[gingib]

Originally Posted by Neck

Where did you see 10 to 20 inches of rainfall? I really hope it is nowhere near that much!

On the post above. the long paragraph. 10-15 inches most of the state

[offthemap]

That's insane. I'm planning on going to a bachelor party in SA this weekend. Anyone from that neck of the woods have any insight as to whether it'll be difficult to get out of town with that much rainfall?

[SabreKiller]

Originally Posted by offthemap

That's insane. I'm planning on going to a bachelor party in SA this weekend. Anyone from that neck of the woods have any insight as to whether it'll be difficult to get out of town with that much rainfall?

The path above takes it right over SA. It will be very difficult to get around SA. If your coming and staying in a hotel, my advise is to stay there and don't leave. Or don't come at all. Gonna be a dangerous situation if it happens as predicted.

[Stolle]

Originally Posted by Clint

Yea, I've gathered you're not much of an Evinrude fan any more.

Not necessarily Evinrude, but the mechanics that worked on it for the last 3 years are not on my good side. I think they over looked an injector problem that caused the dead cylinder.

[LuBowhunter]

Originally Posted by Neck

Where did you see 10 to 20 inches of rainfall? I really hope it is nowhere near that much!

My work just put out a email saying it for our area. Spent the morning preflighting our three birds making sure they were ready to go. Just in case it hits and we have to fly the aftermath.

[Johnny]

Latest GFS run out. Thankfully it has backed down off of a major cane. It shows a minimal hurricane around Corpus for now.



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[Tshelly]

Tagged


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[DEADEYE1]

Where are yall getting this stuff, I don't see anything on radar?? Weatherman are wrong 50% of the time I will believe it when I see it

[DEADEYE1]

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/tx/houston