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Tropical Weather Threat For Texas

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    #31
    Landfall in Sargent is real close to home. I'm about 10 miles north.

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      #32
      How strong a storm are we talking about?

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        #33
        Thanks for the heads up Johnny.

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          #34
          Working from my truck today so can't copy/paste as well.. this is update from Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control.. he gives very good info, and overall synopsis of what is happening and could happen.

          ***Tropical storm or hurricane threat to TX late this week/weekend***

          Residents along the entire TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans today and be fully ready to enact these plans.*

          Widespread excessive rainfall/flood event increasingly likely Friday-Sunday

          Forecast trends overnight continue to suggest that the tropical wave currently crossing the Yucatan will emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday. The well defined, yet weakening, upper level low now S of Lake Charles will continue to move westward and weaken allowing the continued break down of sub-tropical ridging across TX. This will allow the developing tropical system over the southern Gulf of Mexico to turn NW and NNW toward the TX coast. Nearly all global model guidance is now N of the TX/MX border with landfalls anywhere from Freeport, TX to near Brownsville, TX. The general consensus track is in the region bounded by Corpus Christi on the south and Matagorda Bay on the north. While the model spread is fairly large, the timing is fairly similar and has been for the last 24-36 hours that the system will landfall along the TX coast Friday evening.*

          The forecast becomes incredibly complex near/after landfall as the upper level steering flow weakens and the system begins to slow down and possibly stall or meander over the region not far inland of the coast. This is the result of the system becoming caught in a “col” region between high pressure to our NW and our NE and a weak frontal zone which will stall Thursday north of I-10. It appears the system will eventually become caught in the frontal trough and slowly creep E/ENE across much of SC/SE TX into SW LA from Friday-Monday. Should this verify as suggested by several forecast models, rainfall and flooding would be “incredible” over the region.*

          Intensity:*
          Global models have become aggressive overnight with intensity with both the GFS and hurricane model HWRF showing significant intensification over the NW Gulf Thursday and Friday while the ECWMF, CMC, and UKMET show more modest intensification. It appears nearly everything will align for intensification over the NW Gulf with a 200mb high aloft, very warm SST’s, and possibly the formation of an outflow channel to the south and north of the surface circulation which almost always supports intensification…sometimes rapid. The NW Gulf is certainly no stranger to the formation and rapid intensification of tropical systems and this must be watched very closely once the system enters the Gulf early Wednesday. General consensus of the intensity models bring the system to a minimal category 1 hurricane at landfall along the middle TX coast. Any slowing of the forward motion would only give the system more time to intensify across the NW Gulf….this must be watched very closely.

          Impacts:*

          Impacts appear increasingly likely along the entire TX coast starting as early as Thursday along the lower TX coast and spreading northward on Friday into the middle and upper coast. Following the TVCN track of the major multi model consensus brings tropical storm conditions into the Matagorda Bay region on Friday with hurricane conditions possible over that region Friday night into Saturday morning.*

          As long as the system does not become more than a category 1 hurricane…the legacy will likely become excessive rainfall and inland flooding. Major models are very aggressive and rightly so with some very impressive rainfall totals given the slow meandering motion near/after landfall. A very large portion of the state generally south of the I-10 corridor could see totals over 2-3 days of 10-15 inches with isolated amounts of 25+ inches. This is a potentially very serious flash flood and river flood threat for a large portion SC/SE TX and the coastal bend. Exact totals will be redefined with time as the track confidence increases

          Will not use WW3 guidance on coastal impacts as it is based off the highly aggressive GFS run. Instead will follow the TVCN track which would place at least TS force winds across all of the lower and mid coast waters on Friday and at least the western part of the upper coast waters Friday afternoon and night. Hurricane conditions possible Friday night mid coast into our western waters. Will bump seas to 6 feet Thursday as large long period swells begin to arrive out of the central Gulf which will likely start to push up tides. Will go with 12 feet on Friday with 18 ft over our offshore waters as conditions build to near hurricane force west of Palacios Friday night. Will certainly need to start looking at storm surge threat potential, but without a defined track nor guidance from NHC will just have to wait…certainly could see tides breach the 4.5 ft warning criteria over Matagorda Bay and portions of the upper coast on Friday night into Saturday…but unsure how high they may go as this is very dependent on track and intensity.*

          Much of these impacts will change over the next 24 hours and this is a very low confidence forecast.*

          Residents along the TX coast should be closely monitoring weather information at least once a day. Hurricane plans should be in place and ready to be enacted over the next 24 hours.*

          Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of the TX coast on Wednesday

          Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

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            #35
            Originally posted by bboswell View Post
            I heard that!
            Same here...we had a bachelor party scheduled in POC for the weekend. Starting to brainstorm ideas for a plan b.

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              #36
              Originally posted by WItoTX View Post
              Playing devils advocate here. Everyone says to get prepared on this site. If I turn on the news or scour wunderground/weatherchannel/local news, I see literally see no mention of it whatsoever.

              Why would the news not be covering this if it's an actual threat?

              Again, not trying to be a smart ***, just looking for explanation for those of us who don't follow weather closely.
              You ain't been around long enough to know the history, but Johnny and other weather dudes on here were more than a week ahead of Ike and other storms and were MUCH MORE accurate with their predictions and advice than ALL the public news/weather outlets. I (and many, many others) trust their insights WAY more than The Weather Channel, Underground, or local TV news. I'd suggest you just follow along and learn... and heed the warnings and take the advice.

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                #37
                If Oklahoma could stop sucking for a couple days....it would help a bunch!

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                  #38
                  Originally posted by Clint View Post
                  Well, guess I'll wait a day or two before packing for POC.


                  Originally posted by bboswell View Post
                  I heard that!


                  Bring your ladders and boarding up skills[emoji6]

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                    #39
                    Right on time, every stinking year.

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                      #40
                      I am curious as to how the ULL in the NW gulf will affect it, the ULL appears to be moving slightly SW and that could potentially pull the system farther northward. I think its a timing event for sure. Be an interesting 24 hours. I look for some slight model shifts

                      Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

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                        #41
                        Guess my weekend plans are toast. Gotta head to POC to take care of my grandmas house if it is going there.

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                          #42
                          Hurricane Spaghetti Models, Spaghetti Charts, Tropical Forecast, Hurricane Charts, Models, Tropical Update


                          For those of yall that aren't weather experts here is a pretty cool site to look at and get idea of what Johnny and Bonesplitter often talk about on the tropics page. Its just a cool site to look at.

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                            #43
                            Originally posted by Traildust View Post
                            Because its to too far out to cause mass hysteria.
                            If there is one thing I have learned from our news channels, it is never too soon to start mass hysteria...I remember last year Ed Emmitt preaching for well over a week for everyone to be prepared (I can't remember the storm name), and then when the storm fizzled out, he yelled at everyone for being too prepared. That causes the boy who cried wolf syndrome.

                            Originally posted by AgHntr10 View Post
                            Hang around long enough and you will learn Johnny is not only often ahead of the "pro's" but more accurate as well.
                            Lol, I wouldn't call them pro's by any means, just that it seems like they do whatever they can to hype storms, no matter how minimal they are.

                            Originally posted by SaltwaterSlick View Post
                            You ain't been around long enough to know the history, but Johnny and other weather dudes on here were more than a week ahead of Ike and other storms and were MUCH MORE accurate with their predictions and advice than ALL the public news/weather outlets. I (and many, many others) trust their insights WAY more than The Weather Channel, Underground, or local TV news. I'd suggest you just follow along and learn... and heed the warnings and take the advice.
                            I gotcha. I wasn't questioning any prediction, more of looking for some insight as to why the news wouldn't cover a storm given their disposition to hype anything and everything. Trying to figure out what was different this time.

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                              #44
                              Originally posted by Randy View Post
                              Right on time, every stinking year.

                              [ATTACH]869573[/ATTACH]
                              Yessir Randy, you got that right!

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                                #45
                                Originally posted by Bonesplitter View Post
                                I am curious as to how the ULL in the NW gulf will affect it, the ULL appears to be moving slightly SW and that could potentially pull the system farther northward. I think its a timing event for sure. Be an interesting 24 hours. I look for some slight model shifts

                                Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk


                                Is this what you are talking about when you mention the ULL? I was just looking at that and wondering what this may do to the storm

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