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Old 06-10-2018, 01:23 PM   #51
rtp
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Latest GFS model run, has it coming in a little further south and slowing down when it comes inland. Still waiting on the Euro to agree.
What day is this?
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Old 06-10-2018, 01:50 PM   #52
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What day is this?
Next Sunday and Monday.
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Old 06-10-2018, 02:14 PM   #53
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What day is this?
Late next weekend, euro is not showing anything spinning up, just a slug of moisture moving in.
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Old 06-10-2018, 02:29 PM   #54
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There's a butt ton of wind shear coming off our coast that ought to tear it apart and not allow it to organize and spin up. We'll see though, might as well be prepared.
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Old 06-10-2018, 02:33 PM   #55
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There's a butt ton of wind shear coming off our coast that ought to tear it apart and not allow it to organize and spin up. We'll see though, might as well be prepared.
This is true as of now, but itís going to relax during the middle of the week and be prime for something to form.
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Old 06-10-2018, 02:40 PM   #56
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Dagum man, if you did not have bad luck you would not have any at all.This too shall pass
You're telling me!!

2 trips axed cause of storms, one cause of broken generator. And to think summer just started
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Old 06-10-2018, 02:46 PM   #57
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Well it has roughed the seas up for mid week that my swordfishing trip is 99% off. Going to look at it again in two weeks. Hopefully no storms then and things can slick off.
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Old 06-10-2018, 03:27 PM   #58
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At 988mb, would that be a Cat 2 or 3? Or bigger? Where does that fall on be scale? We need to moisture and a tropical system would be nice, but no hurricanes.
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Old 06-10-2018, 03:30 PM   #59
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Crazy how much the models have been changing. Looking forward to see what Johnny thinks as this progresses.
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Old 06-10-2018, 04:03 PM   #60
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Following. Not liking the consistency


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Old 06-10-2018, 04:05 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by texasdeerhunter View Post
At 988mb, would that be a Cat 2 or 3? Or bigger? Where does that fall on be scale? We need to moisture and a tropical system would be nice, but no hurricanes.
Cat 1 at 988 mb
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Old 06-10-2018, 04:28 PM   #62
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Following. Not liking the consistency


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I wouldn't be worried about it until the euro hops on board.
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Old 06-10-2018, 04:34 PM   #63
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The National Hurricane Center Isn't tracking any storms in the Atlantic.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Old 06-10-2018, 04:46 PM   #64
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in
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Old 06-10-2018, 05:29 PM   #65
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No one who had to deal with Harvey has time for this BS. We just finished our remodel. Three foot of water, evacuating livestock, etc. It's too much.
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Old 06-10-2018, 07:44 PM   #66
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Iím crossing my fingers, after working as a first responder through Harvey and losing my home. Iíd hate to have to work another one.


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Old 06-10-2018, 08:12 PM   #67
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We are literally wrapping up our Harvey rebuild next week. Lord please spare us all!

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Old 06-10-2018, 09:12 PM   #68
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Where are you all reading these predictions? I can't find anything about it.
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Old 06-10-2018, 09:24 PM   #69
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Glad I'm off for a couple days next week. If it does happen to turn into something and IF it makes landfall near the same location as Harvey did, I'll be picking up my boat and trailer and bringing them up to BCS!



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Old 06-10-2018, 10:28 PM   #70
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Just move cows back on my RP place yesterday... Need rain down here bad but ill take a drought over going through that again...

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Old 06-10-2018, 11:09 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
Iíll wait and see what Chita says.


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Chita is nice to watch but there are a couple guys on TBH that have more credibility in my book and they havenít mentioned this storm yet that I have seen
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Old 06-10-2018, 11:13 PM   #72
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Channel 11 news mentioned it tonight for first time. Also mentioned wind sheet playing a role in tearing apart any development.
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Old 06-10-2018, 11:36 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by rtjh View Post
Where are you all reading these predictions? I can't find anything about it.
This is a good weather site to use and learn from. There are a few pro mets on it.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=24
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Old 06-11-2018, 06:21 AM   #74
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The GFS hopped on the euro train and is no longer showing a tropical system developing.
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Old 06-11-2018, 06:26 AM   #75
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Flooded tax day 36 inches in the house. Rebuilt and just got through when Harvey hit us like a freight train. 63 inches in the house. The perfect definition of insanity is doing the same thing expecting a different result. We cut the house off of the slab, moved it uphill to pier and beam that I built. We are 99 inches higher than before. So bring it. We have spent near a year this time busting our butts. I ain't scared no more. Hurricane smurricane!
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Old 06-11-2018, 06:31 AM   #76
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Channel 2 was trying to whip people into a lather yesterday on it.

All the news channels will shortly follow suit. Look at me look at me.
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Old 06-11-2018, 06:43 AM   #77
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Windy.com My preferred site doesn't show that wind pattern. Maybe tomorrow it will cover next Wednesday better.

https://www.windy.com/?29.998,-90.134,4
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Old 06-11-2018, 07:17 AM   #78
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Everything I watched said it’s no threat
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Old 06-11-2018, 07:30 AM   #79
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I aint buying the media hype but every time we get hit with something it starts out with "it aint gonna sniff the gulf". Best to just have a box of canned food, maintenance on the generator and some fresh water on hand this time of year.
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Old 06-11-2018, 07:33 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by SaintBlaise View Post
Windy.com My preferred site doesn't show that wind pattern. Maybe tomorrow it will cover next Wednesday better.

https://www.windy.com/?29.998,-90.134,4
thats a really cool site!
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Old 06-11-2018, 07:33 AM   #81
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My NOAA doesn't show anything forming in the next few days..will keep looking
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Old 06-11-2018, 07:35 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by wal1809 View Post
Flooded tax day 36 inches in the house. Rebuilt and just got through when Harvey hit us like a freight train. 63 inches in the house. The perfect definition of insanity is doing the same thing expecting a different result. We cut the house off of the slab, moved it uphill to pier and beam that I built. We are 99 inches higher than before. So bring it. We have spent near a year this time busting our butts. I ain't scared no more. Hurricane smurricane!
Although I'm sure that was a PIA it sounds cool!
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Old 06-11-2018, 08:48 AM   #83
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Not seeing anything on it
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Old 06-11-2018, 09:10 AM   #84
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I've been fishing this past weekend, and only slightly looking at this until last night, but i still can't believe Channel 2 rolled that headline out about Fathers Day Hurricane in Houston. Unbelievably irresponsible..

A few things to note, a whole lot of convection down there right now. GFS did somewhat drop its solution overnight(completely during 0Z run, and weak during 6Z run), and cave towards the Euro(shows more ridging & keeps the "system" over a lot more land). However, there is something to watch down there, and it will hopefully bring us some good rains this weekend/early next week, and not much else. Main inhibitor to development in my opinion is a whole lot of land interaction as it tracks WNW.

Here is the Morning Update from Jeff Lindner from HCFCD for a little more info.
Quote:
Main focus for much of this week will be the late week/weekend forecast as a strong tropical wave moves into the W/NW Gulf of Mexico.

Not expecting much day to day variation of the forecast from a 10-20% chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms along the sezbreeze front through Thursday.

Friday-Monday:
A tropical wave currently moving through the Caribbean Sea will interact with an eastward extension of the central American monsoon trough that has currently drifted northward over the extreme SW Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorm activity has increased in this region of the Caribbean Sea overnight, but at this time there does not appear to be any low level circulation. This feature will meander WNW and into the W Caribbean Sea and central America over the next few days and then likely emerge into the southern or central Gulf of Mexico late this week. At this time a majority of the global computer model guidance maintains this feature as a broad tropical wave axis and moves into toward the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

As the tropical wave axis moves into the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday a large mass of deep tropical moisture will surge NW on the eastern flank of the wave toward the TX coast. Rain chances will likely begin to increase early Saturday and continue elevated through the weekend into early next week. Wind and seas will also increase as the unsettled weather and wave axis moves toward the coastline.

Residents are urged to monitor daily tropical weather outlooks from the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 and local forecasts.

Regardless of development or notÖrain chances will be increasing this weekend. Will start to have a better idea toward the middle of the week on expected amounts of rainfall over the area as forecast models resolve how this feature will unfold over the W/NW Gulf of Mexico, but a prolonged period of wet to very wet weather looks possible.
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Old 06-11-2018, 09:11 AM   #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AZST_bowhunter View Post
thats a really cool site!
this site really helps for fishing(knowing the winds) and hurricanes. You can watch the storm track, and can see the wind speeds.
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Old 06-11-2018, 09:50 AM   #86
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I wouldn't write this one off just yet...lots of moisture in the Caribbean with signs of mid level rotation which will get into the central/southern gulf later this week. This could turn into a pretty healthy rain maker for the Texas coast.

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Old 06-11-2018, 09:58 AM   #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny View Post
I wouldn't write this one off just yet...lots of moisture in the Caribbean with signs of mid level rotation which will get into the central/southern gulf later this week. This could turn into a pretty healthy rain maker for the Texas coast.

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Agreed!

P.S. Your avatar is creepy looking lol
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Old 06-11-2018, 10:00 AM   #88
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Probably not going to be a hurricane, but it is looking like Texas will get some much needed rain next Sunday - Wednesday. Hope it stays on track!
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Old 06-11-2018, 10:07 AM   #89
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Agreed!

P.S. Your avatar is creepy looking lol
There is a story behind that. lol

I got a bay home rented out starting the 17th rigged up with overhead lights. I was looking forward to killing the trout but if a **** floater still looks possible along the coast over the next couple of days, I'm cancelling so watching this one very closely.

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Old 06-11-2018, 10:11 AM   #90
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If it hits i hope it tracks NW. Got 2" of rain out of Harvey last year in Brownwood .
Stayed east of us. We need some rain.
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Old 06-11-2018, 10:18 AM   #91
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for people like me that need a visual reference...
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Old 06-11-2018, 10:29 AM   #92
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Leaving for the Chandelier islands Thursday out of Biloxi, I wonder if we are going to be ok, or the trip will be canceled.
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Old 06-11-2018, 11:03 AM   #93
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Leaving for the Chandelier islands Thursday out of Biloxi, I wonder if we are going to be ok, or the trip will be canceled.
unless they close the port and forces the boats out, the head boat will leave if yall want it to. Rough seas doesnt bother the crew. Last time I was there they left two trips in a row with the fishermen sick and puking but went fishin anyway
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Old 06-11-2018, 11:10 AM   #94
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How is Costa Rica looking? I have family there now for the next week. All the forecast show 100% rain every day for the next while.

Johnny cam you give me an idea on how severe or just moisture?
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Old 06-11-2018, 11:14 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by TENRMORE View Post
Leaving for the Chandelier islands Thursday out of Biloxi, I wonder if we are going to be ok, or the trip will be canceled.
Pack lots of warm Lone Star and pork fat sandwiches with extra mayonnaise. A can of smoked oysters for breakfast will settle your tummy.
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Old 06-11-2018, 11:36 AM   #96
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Following. The family is headed out of Galveston on a cruise. I was hoping for smooth waters since the wife gets motion sick. We shall see.
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Old 06-11-2018, 11:44 AM   #97
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Pack lots of warm Lone Star and pork fat sandwiches with extra mayonnaise. A can of smoked oysters for breakfast will settle your tummy.
Iíd puke it up on dry land
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Old 06-11-2018, 12:02 PM   #98
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Pack lots of warm Lone Star and pork fat sandwiches with extra mayonnaise. A can of smoked oysters for breakfast will settle your tummy.
Excellent advice!!
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Old 06-11-2018, 12:13 PM   #99
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Pack lots of warm Lone Star and pork fat sandwiches with extra mayonnaise. A can of smoked oysters for breakfast will settle your tummy.
You forgot the Mescal mouthwash for after the throw up session.
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Old 06-11-2018, 12:38 PM   #100
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Quote:
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If it hits i hope it tracks NW. Got 2" of rain out of Harvey last year in Brownwood .
Stayed east of us. We need some rain.
Your will get roasted for this comment..


Me, Iím hoping that Bud swirls east and doesenít lose all his moisture over the Rockies and gives WT a good soaking of sun-tropical weather
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