foreshadowing
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You've suggested that because the left-leaning WaPo published a piece it must be lend credibility to the argument that Trump was victorious in the midterms. That piece is an op-ep which conveys the opinion of someone not affiliated with the WaPo. Media outlets like the WaPo make it very clear that op-eds do not reflect the opinions of the media outlet or it's editorial board. In short, the fact that the WaPo published that op-ed is irrelevant. Let's look at the contributor who actually wrote the piece. Musa Al-Garbi is a Muslim graduate student at Columbia University. Again, irrelevant. What matters is the validity and persuasiveness of the analysis. The piece is a week old (11/9). Democrats have been declared the winner of 2 US Senate seats and several more House seats since that piece was written. In fact, Democrats will pick up more House seats than in any election since 1974 when Nixon resigned. They will pick up several more seats than they did in 2006 and in 2008 when Bush's popularity and the economy was in the toilet and Obama swept into power. Trump and the GOP had MAGA and a good economy to run on and Democrats still picked up more seats than they have in a generation. Why is that? All the analysis I've seen shows its because Republicans got killed in the major metropolitan suburbs where many RINOs, independents and moderates flipped from voting for Trump and Republicans in 2016 to voting for a Democrat in 2018.Originally posted by JLivi1224 View PostTo your comment about the midterms - power historically swings to the other party in midterm elections. GOP historically speaking vastly outperformed the average.
Jeff Bezos’s Washington post - hardly a conservative outfit.
Historically speaking, Democrats delivered a thoroughly average result in their first round as Trump’s opposition. Going all the way back to the Civil War, there were only two instances when a new party seized the presidency but didn’t lose seats in the House during their first midterm elections: Under President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 (during the Great Depression), and President George W. Bush in 2002 (in the shadow of the 9/11 terrorist attacks). Even including these outliers, the average attrition during a party’s inaugural midterms is 35 House seats; excluding these two exceptions, the average loss is 41. Regardless of which number we run with, Trump could end up performing better than average in preserving his party’s influence in the House. He performed much better than his last two Democratic predecessors: Bill Clinton lost control of both chambers in the 1994 midterm elections. Barack Obama saw historic losses in the House in 2010, and lost seats in the Senate as well — the most sweeping congressional reversal in 62 years.
I'll trade you some more recent editorial pieces.
11/13 - Why Election Day 2018 Looks Worse for the GOP One Week Later
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-m...d-for-the-gop/
11/15 - The Midterms Sent an Unmistakable Message to Republicans
So long as the GOP stays loyal to President Trump, its prospects on the electoral map will be sharply restricted.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...dterms/575884/Last edited by Vermin93; 11-15-2018, 04:44 PM.Comment
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Trump has taught his supporters to grossly exaggerate to create political influence.Originally posted by Ironman View Post
All Trump's supporters grossly exaggerate to create political influence.
...big difference.Comment
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So is a few of Trump supporters, or some of Trump supporters. But either way, like most self proclaimed "centrist", you are never wrong.Originally posted by Vermin93 View Post
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Originally posted by Ironman View PostSo is a few of Trump supporters, or some of Trump supporters. But either way, like most self proclaimed "centrist", you are never wrong.
It’s hard to be wrong when you call out partisan absurdities that the right wing and left wing hurl at each other.Comment
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These kinds of thing happen when the wife finds out how Stormy is paying her legal fees..........
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Tribalism...there, I said it 1st.Comment
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You make me chuckle sometimes. The reason that a great economy, jobs, unemployment numbers, GDP and on and on didn’t result in a sweeping success at the ballot box is due to pure partisan bull**** and the Forever promise of free stuff from the left. It’s honestly sad.Originally posted by Vermin93 View PostLast edited by JLivi1224; 11-15-2018, 10:29 PM.Comment
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They're not exaggerating, he's really that great by any measure of a president.Originally posted by Vermin93 View PostComment
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Evidently the creepy **** lawyer is running for president in 2020
Originally posted by JLivi1224 View Post
I understand that’s your personal partisan belief. Can you share any reasonable political analysis that supports it? I doubt it.
You forgot one other benefit the GOP had going for them this cycle - gerrymandering favorable to Republicans. Despite all that, they still got smoked in the suburbs where college educated voters, especially college educated women, sent Trumpism a pretty clear rebuke.
The districts with college-educated women that voted Republicans out
I find the analysis from the National Review link below to be quite a bit more reasonable than what you’ve suggested.
The GOP’s Orange County Problem
“First, the lesson for Democrats: Don’t launch an outrageous character assassination against an innocent man, pervert justice and decency, and wave it around on national television as a means of blocking a Supreme Court justice. The major wins of Election Night for Republicans were in the U.S. Senate, where they picked up Democratic seats in the red states of Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota. At least two of these three would surely have stayed blue if it were not for Democrats’ decision to drag the Kavanaugh fight into the mud. Think of the national conversation we would be having right now if the Democrats had held on to those three seats: Pending the results of the ongoing Florida recount, we might have been looking at a 51–49 Democrat Senate, or a 50-50 deadlock. Instead, we’re probably looking at 53–47 GOP-controlled. Senate. The outrageous behavior of Democratic extremists was one of the biggest unforced political errors in recent memory, and it did not even succeed in blocking the wildly qualified Judge Kavanaugh from being confirmed.
The lesson for Republicans is much more significant, and much more obvious. Republicans were spared an even rougher Election Night by the fact that many of their losses took another week to become official, and by the aforementioned Senate wins. But Republicans still lost seven governorships, somewhere between 35 and 40 House seats, and two purple-state Senate seats (Arizona and Nevada). And those losses were entirely due to the alienation of one critical demographic: Suburban Republicans and Independents who are repulsed by the style of Donald J. Trump.”Last edited by Vermin93; 11-16-2018, 06:26 AM.Comment
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Outrageous character assasination
Pervert justice and decency
Drag the Kavanaugh fight into the mud
The outrageous behavior of Democratic extremists
And then.......
Repulsed by the style of Donald J. Trump
I'd say that speaks volumes. Trump is pro American....big time. The other descriptions.....not so much.Comment
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Originally posted by Vermin93 View PostI understand that’s your personal partisan belief. Can you share any reasonable political analysis that supports it? I doubt it.
You forgot one other benefit the GOP had going for them this cycle - gerrymandering favorable to Republicans. Despite all that, they still got smoked in the suburbs where college educated voters, especially college educated women, sent Trumpism a pretty clear rebuke.
The districts with college-educated women that voted Republicans out
I find the analysis from the National Review link below to be quite a bit more reasonable than what you’ve suggested.
The GOP’s Orange County Problem
“First, the lesson for Democrats: Don’t launch an outrageous character assassination against an innocent man, pervert justice and decency, and wave it around on national television as a means of blocking a Supreme Court justice. The major wins of Election Night for Republicans were in the U.S. Senate, where they picked up Democratic seats in the red states of Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota. At least two of these three would surely have stayed blue if it were not for Democrats’ decision to drag the Kavanaugh fight into the mud. Think of the national conversation we would be having right now if the Democrats had held on to those three seats: Pending the results of the ongoing Florida recount, we might have been looking at a 51–49 Democrat Senate, or a 50-50 deadlock. Instead, we’re probably looking at 53–47 GOP-controlled. Senate. The outrageous behavior of Democratic extremists was one of the biggest unforced political errors in recent memory, and it did not even succeed in blocking the wildly qualified Judge Kavanaugh from being confirmed.
The lesson for Republicans is much more significant, and much more obvious. Republicans were spared an even rougher Election Night by the fact that many of their losses took another week to become official, and by the aforementioned Senate wins. But Republicans still lost seven governorships, somewhere between 35 and 40 House seats, and two purple-state Senate seats (Arizona and Nevada). And those losses were entirely due to the alienation of one critical demographic: Suburban Republicans and Independents who are repulsed by the style of Donald J. Trump.”
Are you always this arrogant? I’m sorry you have those insecurities. You assume I’m incapable of having an intelligent, political debate with you because I’m some knuckle dragging, incestual, backwoods Trump supporter? Rather presumptuous of you, no?
You can point to whatever you would like. At the end of the day, both parties are culpable in underhanded methods to influence elections. Do you have an opinion on what’s gone on in Florida? That’s utter corruption, and if you say otherwise than clearly your partisanship is showing. The latest is they are trying to actively change the law regarding matching signatures and other information. Rather straight forward don’t you think? Broward county mysteriously missed the deadline by 2 minutes. Just so happens their results showed SCOTT actually increasing his lead.
Enlighten me with your superior knowledge, please.
Why do dems fight voter ID laws so hard?
Do you not think voters should have to show citizenship?
Of nearly 6,000 votes found in GA gubernatorial, over 90% of the votes were for Abrams in an otherwise nearly 50/50 race - thoughts?
Would you consider yourself conservative, liberal, centrist, other?
Why is it you think college educated voters are leaning left?
To be clear, I am not a huge fan of Trump’s style, hyperbole, etc. I think he’s often hurting himself with some of the mud slinging. He should be focused on the facts. The numbers. Economy, unemployment, growth etc. I’m thrilled to leave the partisanship, bias and emotion out of this.Last edited by JLivi1224; 11-16-2018, 08:29 AM.Comment
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In this thread you have -Originally posted by JLivi1224 View Post
1. Made a flawed argument for credibility because the WaPo published a random op-ed from some graduate student
2. Linked a week old op-ed written by said graduate student which discusses results that have significantly changed since the op-ed was written
3. Chuckled at the historical reality of the midterm election relative to Democrat performances in previous midterms
4. Dismissed the measurable voting differences between the 2016 and 2018 congressional elections in suburban swing districts, which gave Democrats the House
5. Made a personal partisan declaration as to why the GOP lost the House without providing any evidence or analysis to support the claim
6. Dismissed the fact that college educated women overwhelming supported Democrats 9 to 1 in key suburban swing districts, including three districts in Texas, marking a significant change from 2016 that is widely attributed to Trump
7. Made petty personal insults in lieu of respectable rebuttal of the above mentioned points
Given all that, what am I supposed to think?
Why do dems fight voter ID laws so hard?
I believe a primary reason is because many of their voters are poorly educated voters from the lowest economic class and showing up with a valid ID is another hurdle for them to clear. I personally support voter ID laws, but I also don't think it's as big of a deal as conservatives make it out to be.
Do you not think voters should have to show citizenship?
I think voters should have to present a valid ID that can be associated with their voter registration....valid driver's license, state issued ID, passport, military ID.
Of nearly 6,000 votes found in GA gubernatorial, over 90% of the votes were for Abrams in an otherwise nearly 50/50 race - thoughts?
I'm not following the drama in GA, as I have no doubt Kemp will be declared the winner.
Would you consider yourself conservative, liberal, centrist, other?
Centrist. Generally speaking, economically conservative and socially moderate. I loathe the socialists and race baiters on the left. I loathe the theocrats, dominionists and xenophobes on the right. I think the left is a disaster on immigration. I think the right is a disaster on the environment and healthcare. I think the left is addicted to entitlements. I think the right is addicted to military spending. I think both are a disaster on spending and debt.
Why is it you think college educated voters are leaning left?
Generally speaking...I think college educated voters are more socially moderate or liberal. I think they are also more pragmatic in that they realize the need for political compromise in a nation where about 30% of people are conservative, about 30% are liberal and about 40% are somewhere in the middle. They do not want Republicans legislating from the Bible. They want LGBTQ people left alone. They want the environment cared for. They want science considered and respected. They are empathetic. They want other people to be able to get affordable healthcare. They understand a good education is key to upward mobility and self reliance and they want all children to have access to one. On the other hand, they don't like high taxes, crime, corruption and lawlessness, but they are generally willing to pay when government works well. There are certainly other factors, but those are some.Last edited by Vermin93; 11-16-2018, 09:47 AM.Comment
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When the government works well???? If that isn't an oxymoron, I don't know what is.Originally posted by Vermin93 View PostComment
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Cults have historically been chalk full of college educated men AND women. It's interesting that most "successful" cults preach acceptance, tolerance, inclusion, and the promise of a utopian world. Sound familiar?
Come to think of it, the modern Democratic Party more resembles a cult than a political party.Comment
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