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Old 09-12-2018, 10:41 AM   #251
xman59
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Lots of great sites linked here but ^^^that one is slick!
very cool
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Old 09-12-2018, 11:06 AM   #252
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Blake: any threats for you and your Lousiana families or y’all look to be safer?


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Old 09-12-2018, 12:26 PM   #253
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Saw this model for Invest 95L
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Old 09-12-2018, 12:56 PM   #254
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Travis Herzog on ABC13 in Houston mentioned the most sophisticated model for 95L has it hitting Matagorda bay, which puts a lot more rain over Houston. Recon data would have helped but I understand the choice to scrub it. Any thoughts?
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Old 09-12-2018, 01:25 PM   #255
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Just got a text from our ranch foreman and looks like we've had 7-9 inches on most parts of our ranch in the past few days!! We sure needed it!!
You’re down around Laredo correct?

If that’s the case, y’all have gotten hammered just like we have north of y’all in Catarina the last couple of days
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Old 09-12-2018, 01:33 PM   #256
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My brother is getting married in Mathis on Saturday, hoping everyone is able to make it from out of town.
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Old 09-12-2018, 02:00 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
Travis Herzog on ABC13 in Houston mentioned the most sophisticated model for 95L has it hitting Matagorda bay, which puts a lot more rain over Houston. Recon data would have helped but I understand the choice to scrub it. Any thoughts?


Personally, I think they say that **** for the dramatization affect. I was listening to them this morning and you would have thought Houston was going to get hit with another Harvey. I have not seen a single model to indicate what they are saying.

Anything is possible, but.....
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Old 09-12-2018, 02:19 PM   #258
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Well, according to the Waffle House Index, Myrtle Beach is screwed.
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Old 09-12-2018, 02:59 PM   #259
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95L still looks like its getting sheared pretty heavily to me. Cloud tops look like they are getting blown off to the S/SW at a good clip. Global models this afternoon really don't do anything with it. Some of the Mesoscale models still show a sloppy Depression or TS from Corpus up towards Matagorda Bay area.

Bad thing is shear is still supposed to relax, and it is in bathtub water.. So you can't let your guard down as whatever this is should be coming through TX in less than 2 days, even though at this time it doesn't look like much more than rain and elevated wind & seas(I was supposed to be fishing King of the Deep tournament out of Matty this weekend too!). Rainfall amounts don't look to be too excessive per the QPF chart, but I don't get the feeling anyone is too confident on forecast..
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:02 PM   #260
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Travis Herzog on ABC13 in Houston mentioned the most sophisticated model for 95L has it hitting Matagorda bay, which puts a lot more rain over Houston. Recon data would have helped but I understand the choice to scrub it. Any thoughts?
the model right above your post only has one 'guess' thats even close to Matty. Looks to be like brownsville and further south needs to worry more than POC/Matty area
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:04 PM   #261
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Originally Posted by ccbluewater View Post
95L still looks like its getting sheared pretty heavily to me. Cloud tops look like they are getting blown off to the S/SW at a good clip. Global models this afternoon really don't do anything with it. Some of the Mesoscale models still show a sloppy Depression or TS from Corpus up towards Matagorda Bay area.

Bad thing is shear is still supposed to relax, and it is in bathtub water.. So you can't let your guard down as whatever this is should be coming through TX in less than 2 days, even though at this time it doesn't look like much more than rain and elevated wind & seas(I was supposed to be fishing King of the Deep tournament out of Matty this weekend too!). Rainfall amounts don't look to be too excessive per the QPF chart, but I don't get the feeling anyone is too confident on forecast..
Thanks man, keep the updates coming
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:12 PM   #262
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In


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Old 09-12-2018, 08:31 PM   #263
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Any update? I guess it won’t be a big deal since none of our resident weather guys seem to be getting too worked up over it. A rain maker wouldn’t be bad for most of Texas though
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Old 09-12-2018, 08:49 PM   #264
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Wednesday Evening Update from Jeff Lindner with HCFCD.

Quote:
Four active named storms currently in the Atlantic basin with Joyce having formed in the far north Atlantic this afternoon

95L:
Satellite images suggest that a broad area of surface low pressure has formed today over the south-central Gulf of Mexico and thunderstorms activity has increased somewhat although it remains fairly disorganized. Based on the current data there is a 70% chance that a tropical depression will form in the next 24 hours over the western Gulf of Mexico. This feature is generally moving toward the NW at around 10mph and will be approaching the lower or middle TX coast on Friday. Conditions across the NW Gulf of Mexico will gradually become more favorable for the development of a tropical depression or storm over the next 24-36 hours and it is possible if not likely that the broad surface low will consolidate as it nears the coast on Friday.

Regardless of this system being declared a tropical storm or depression, the impacts along the TX coast will be nearly the same….heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued from midnight tonight to 700pm Thursday for all the coastal counties and SE Harris County where rainfall over the last 2-3 days has averaged 3-6 inches with isolated totals of up to 10 inches. Grounds over these areas are saturated and additional rainfall is expected to develop again overnight and impact many of these same areas.

Rainbands from 95L will begin to spread onto the TX coast late Thursday and increase into Thursday night and Friday and continue into Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common mainly south of I-10 tonight-Saturday night with isolated totals of 6-8 inches. North of I-10 rainfall amounts will likely average 1-3 inches with isolated totals of up to 4 inches. There is still some uncertainty with these rainfall numbers and they could change up or down in the next 24-48 hours.

The greatest threat for flooding will be over the areas that have experienced the most rainfall over the last several days or generally across the coastal counties and into SE Harris County and then further inland over the coastal bend and SW TX where rainfall has been plentiful and rivers already running high.

Will maintain winds of 10-20mph inland and 15-25mph along the coast an offshore unless the system becomes stronger than currently expected.

Tides will run about 1.0-1.5 feet above predicted levels along the coast with total water levels of 3.0-3.5 feet above MLLW which is generally below thresholds needed to cause issues along Bolivar, the west end of Galveston and along the west side of Galveston Bay.
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Old 09-12-2018, 09:52 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by ccbluewater View Post
Wednesday Evening Update from Jeff Lindner with HCFCD.
Looking at the radar on Accuweather I don’t even see rain bands off this Invest 95L, or whatever it’s called.
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Old 09-13-2018, 06:45 AM   #266
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.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:42 AM   #267
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Looks like we can keep this thread going for awhile. EURO has Isaac hitting Louisiana in 10 days.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:52 AM   #268
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Looks like we can keep this thread going for awhile. EURO has Isaac hitting Louisiana in 10 days.
Yep, tis the season I suppose..

Euro Ensemble members are a lot more interested in this than they have been. It had been burying this into Central America.

10+ Days out though so a long time to wait and see..

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Old 09-13-2018, 09:57 AM   #269
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So the model consensus is... anywhere it
could possibly go


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Old 09-13-2018, 10:40 AM   #270
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Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
So the model consensus is... anywhere it
could possibly go


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right.

I do like that only ONE model has it coming here and elevendy million somewhere else
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:51 AM   #271
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Looking forward to a long weekend filled with rain... I can finally get some stuff done at the house.

That is correct right? Not gonna lie, I only read this last page...
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:54 AM   #272
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The picture is cut off but I bet there a lot of models that have it going backwards and making landfall in Africa as well.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:04 AM   #273
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34 miles off shore live feed of Florence

It's an old CG light station (Known as the Frying Pan) that's now privately owned and run as a B&B.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:21 AM   #274
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Originally Posted by 1369 View Post
34 miles off shore live feed of Florence

It's an old CG light station (Known as the Frying Pan) that's now privately owned and run as a B&B.
Old Glory hanging tough right now.
Cool link, thx.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:27 AM   #275
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Whats the latest update on Invest 92? I'm leaving in 2 hours for a cast n blast in SPI.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:30 AM   #276
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Whats the latest update on Invest 92? I'm leaving in 2 hours for a cast n blast in SPI.
I was supposed to be in Isabel this week fishing, I rescheduled. I ain't trying to fight all this rain.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:56 AM   #277
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Isnt this storm doing just like Harvey? Considered a nothing burger in the same area and overnight turned into a Hurricane and the same modeled paths? Although it ended up going scraping the RGV and heading north to the Rockport area.
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Old 09-13-2018, 12:01 PM   #278
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Isnt this storm doing just like Harvey? Considered a nothing burger in the same area and overnight turned into a Hurricane and the same modeled paths? Although it ended up going scraping the RGV and heading north to the Rockport area.
I smell a theory...
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Old 09-13-2018, 04:04 PM   #279
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I need to get up to LLano and fill feeders. What do the experts think the rain will be up there?
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Old 09-14-2018, 07:24 AM   #280
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I tried looking some this morning and it appears 95L is going to deep south Texas/northern Mexico. Is that correct? Can we still expect decent rains for most of the state today and tomorrow?
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Old 09-14-2018, 07:59 AM   #281
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Originally Posted by 1369 View Post
34 miles off shore live feed of Florence

It's an old CG light station (Known as the Frying Pan) that's now privately owned and run as a B&B.
Not sure about last night, but the cam today isn't live.
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:10 AM   #282
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I tried looking some this morning and it appears 95L is going to deep south Texas/northern Mexico. Is that correct? Can we still expect decent rains for most of the state today and tomorrow?
I'm so confused, I just checked weather underground and it shows very little rain for this weekend?
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:34 AM   #283
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12 days of straight rain in Houston... it can stop anytime
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:38 AM   #284
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12 days of straight rain in Houston... it can stop anytime
Yep. I had 3.5" yesterday, up to 3" so far today.
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:44 AM   #285
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Yep. I had 3.5" yesterday, up to 3" so far today.
Gonna be a rough Teal opener...for those that brave it. Not looking any better tomorrow.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:35 PM   #286
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15” in Matagorda this week, Boggy and Lake Austin flooded, tide super high in the bay
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:38 PM   #287
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Latest models show it running straight up the Rio Grande River. Looks like my lease in Val Verde and Terrell County is gonna get some more rain. I'd like to watch it as it floods the creeks behind the camp house. All that water has moved some huge boulders in the past.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:38 PM   #288
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Originally Posted by panhandlehunter View Post
Yep. I had 3.5" yesterday, up to 3" so far today.
What was his name?

Last edited by HoustonHunter; 09-14-2018 at 12:41 PM.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:44 PM   #289
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What was his name?
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:52 PM   #290
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12 days of straight rain in Houston... it can stop anytime
Right? People are bitching about needing some rain and I'm like "****! That's all it's done here for weeks now."
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:52 PM   #291
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send some to lee county. We only have gotten maybe 2" in the last couple months. looks like we may miss out again. keeps watering the concrete in Houston
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:25 PM   #292
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15” in Matagorda this week, Boggy and Lake Austin flooded, tide super high in the bay
A buddy has been killin the reds in the ICW from a kayak in the tides. He been getting rained on but fillin the stringer
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:28 PM   #293
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12 days of straight rain in Houston... it can stop anytime
Yes please.............
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Old 09-14-2018, 02:04 PM   #294
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I think we have had enough for Houston. Would be nice if it made its way to other parts of the state where it may be needed.
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Old 09-14-2018, 02:37 PM   #295
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A buddy has been killin the reds in the ICW from a kayak in the tides. He been getting rained on but fillin the stringer
Wonder if there is any salt left in east the bay or it's a blow out? Guess I'll be running to west when this deluge finally chills out.... dang it man..
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Old 09-14-2018, 02:40 PM   #296
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Quote:
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Wonder if there is any salt left in east the bay or it's a blow out? Guess I'll be running to west when this deluge finally chills out.... dang it man..
The area we fished with Phillip might be a little fresh but the reds may not mind it. The place a coworker has been fishin is within sight of the dry stack in freeport. Yesterday he said he caught 15 reds from 19-20" 4 keepers and a handfull of trout
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Old 09-14-2018, 02:52 PM   #297
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Wonder if there is any salt left in east the bay or it's a blow out? Guess I'll be running to west when this deluge finally chills out.... dang it man..
I'll give you a report Sunday. Going to do some checking out.
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Old 09-14-2018, 03:24 PM   #298
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I'll give you a report Sunday. Going to do some checking out.
Appreciate it amigo!!
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Old 09-15-2018, 09:13 AM   #299
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It's going to hit Florida 3 times? Hilarious.

Take note most lines stop at the GOM. They don't know what this one will do...
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Old 09-15-2018, 11:58 AM   #300
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Isaac went nite nite. Hopefully for good
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