The Market Bottom?

[Burnadell]

What was the low on 03/02/2009?
What was the high 13 months later on 04/02/2010?

You are a financial guy. All I ever hear from you guys is that no one can time markets (or peaks/bottoms). Just because a stock or market does a quick jump that does not mean that's exactly what it was worth.

If "recovered" means getting back 100% of previous peak then no athlete ever recovers from an injury. And market dynamics are different going forward after a crash. And people average in to the markets... I'm sure there are a very slim few people who bought at the peak but 99% didn't.

Are you telling clients to not buy now because markets are up 5,500 points off the low?
If a client asks how much he's down AFTER the drop off 2008.. Do you say you could have sold for "x" on the peak day? Hell no you don't. You most likely tell them what they're averaged in at which is WAY lower than the peak.

03/02/09 S&P 500 700
04/02/10 S&P 500 1178

That is a 68% increase...so what is your point?

Comparing an athlete's recovery to the market?

You would be wrong on that 99% figure. Yes, many people invested at the peak because they invest when they have money available to invest. They do not try to time the market. The above 13-month increase demonstrates why they shouldn't. Those who bail out usually don't do it at the top but only after they panic from losing 20-30%. Then, they won't get back in until they are convinced the market recovery is not a dead cat bounce. Your dates above reflect that if they were out of the market during those 13 months, they would have given up the opportunity for a 68% increase.

You are a smart guy, Tim, but you do not understand these things as much as you think you do. Quit digging that hole or get a longer shovel.

[Tex_Cattleman]

As of this weekend, Buffet is holding $128 Billion cash. Read into it what you like.

Meanwhile, I'll watch this thread with amusement from the sidelines. I will say to those who argue with such certainty based on their brilliant financial acumen and foresight? History teaches this: when the future proves you right, we'll agree you got lucky. When the future proves you wrong, we'll laugh and quote old threads.

[joey1656]

Oh well, i bought a bunch over the last two weeks. If the market keeps dropping, i will keep buying more. It will come up eventually.

[glen]

A&M90- Heck ya I would take the wife and go eat tonight if someplace was open. If my parents wanted to meet me there it would be their choice as free Americans. I’m would not encourage them but I have never told my 84 year old Dad what to do.

[STGS]

Tomorrow could be a very interesting day. OPEC+ cuts 9.7 million BPD of oil for the next 2 months. I predict Dow at 25,000 by COB Friday.

[kae006]

As of this weekend, Buffet is holding $128 Billion cash. Read into it what you like.

And how much was "Buffett" holding a month ago? Six months, a year ago? Need to put it into context for it to be worth anything.

[Tex_Cattleman]

And how much was "Buffett" holding a month ago? Six months, a year ago? Need to put it into context for it to be worth anything.

Years. Last major investment was four years ago.

[RiverRat1]

Sorry I meant 1.5 years to fall... My bad. I had dates correct just can't do math

My point is the SPY was up 90% in 13 months after it hit bottom. And up 150% within 18 months... Those numbers are rough. If you leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007 then it did recover within 2 years.

03/02/09 S&P 500 700
04/02/10 S&P 500 1178

That is a 68% increase...so what is your point?

Comparing an athlete's recovery to the market?

You would be wrong on that 99% figure. Yes, many people invested at the peak because they invest when they have money available to invest. They do not try to time the market. The above 13-month increase demonstrates why they shouldn't. Those who bail out usually don't do it at the top but only after they panic from losing 20-30%. Then, they won't get back in until they are convinced the market recovery is not a dead cat bounce. Your dates above reflect that if they were out of the market during those 13 months, they would have given up the opportunity for a 68% increase.

You are a smart guy, Tim, but you do not understand these things as much as you think you do. Quit digging that hole or get a longer shovel.

You really want to argue....

I'm done arguing about what recovery means. You seem to want it both ways by being a long term guy but then act like short term pops mean something. That's fine.

I see the low was 666.79 for S&P and was 1217 on 04/18

Sorry I didn't take all the extra time to zoom in on exact dates, break out a calculator and calculate exact percentages...I did say my data was rough as we were talking about a general time frame as to when markets recovered.

Not even sure how we got down this rabbit hole.

[mdnabors]

Oh well, i bought a bunch over the last two weeks. If the market keeps dropping, i will keep buying more. It will come up eventually.

This is what I've done as well. Got in around 3/19 with a pretty diverse portfolio IMO and have held most of them. I tweaked 4-5 times until I got it like I wanted and have bought more shares of what I currently have on the dips. I plan to sit on them but watch for more dips to continue buying the solid long-term ones. The ones I deem as short term I'll sell when they get to a certain number and use the proceeds to buy more of my long term shares. I'm new to this, but have been trying to do lots of research lately because I know over time they'll go up... Buy low and hold is my motto for awhile. We shall see

[Bumpy]

Tomorrow could be a very interesting day. OPEC+ cuts 9.7 million BPD of oil for the next 2 months. I predict Dow at 25,000 by COB Friday.

I read that earlier today. I wonder what that will do on the market monday.

[BigL]

ULTA. Lots of cash - assets- very little debt. Lady that runs it is a powerhouse.

I made decent return off of ULTA years ago. When girls started going crazy with selfies and self-sticks had just been created. I thought about that and thought girls are only going to do that with hair/makeup on. Started thinking who to invest in and compared a few and found that ULTA had better financials. Went with a guess that was backed by good fundamentals and made some good coin.

I tell my 15 yr old son to pay attention to them more than because they look and smell good. Find out what their buying behaviors are and tell me so I can make money!

[lostbrd]

ok get back to me in a month and lets compare notes

24,331

[glen]

Anyone else throw a “Yo” bet out and buy DraftKings when it went public? It is sitting still basically and no sports to bet on. Anyone besides me think when sports open back up betting will be all time high. I think it will be televised only for a while and Vegas looks weird with all the partitions up at the tables and machines.

[jaime1982]

8/28/20

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[glen]

I hope it beats 29,500 next month