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Old 09-12-2018, 07:49 PM   #264
Eight Point
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Cypress
Hunt In: Freer

Wednesday Evening Update from Jeff Lindner with HCFCD.

Four active named storms currently in the Atlantic basin with Joyce having formed in the far north Atlantic this afternoon

Satellite images suggest that a broad area of surface low pressure has formed today over the south-central Gulf of Mexico and thunderstorms activity has increased somewhat although it remains fairly disorganized. Based on the current data there is a 70% chance that a tropical depression will form in the next 24 hours over the western Gulf of Mexico. This feature is generally moving toward the NW at around 10mph and will be approaching the lower or middle TX coast on Friday. Conditions across the NW Gulf of Mexico will gradually become more favorable for the development of a tropical depression or storm over the next 24-36 hours and it is possible if not likely that the broad surface low will consolidate as it nears the coast on Friday.

Regardless of this system being declared a tropical storm or depression, the impacts along the TX coast will be nearly the same….heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued from midnight tonight to 700pm Thursday for all the coastal counties and SE Harris County where rainfall over the last 2-3 days has averaged 3-6 inches with isolated totals of up to 10 inches. Grounds over these areas are saturated and additional rainfall is expected to develop again overnight and impact many of these same areas.

Rainbands from 95L will begin to spread onto the TX coast late Thursday and increase into Thursday night and Friday and continue into Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common mainly south of I-10 tonight-Saturday night with isolated totals of 6-8 inches. North of I-10 rainfall amounts will likely average 1-3 inches with isolated totals of up to 4 inches. There is still some uncertainty with these rainfall numbers and they could change up or down in the next 24-48 hours.

The greatest threat for flooding will be over the areas that have experienced the most rainfall over the last several days or generally across the coastal counties and into SE Harris County and then further inland over the coastal bend and SW TX where rainfall has been plentiful and rivers already running high.

Will maintain winds of 10-20mph inland and 15-25mph along the coast an offshore unless the system becomes stronger than currently expected.

Tides will run about 1.0-1.5 feet above predicted levels along the coast with total water levels of 3.0-3.5 feet above MLLW which is generally below thresholds needed to cause issues along Bolivar, the west end of Galveston and along the west side of Galveston Bay.
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