Prepare for landing....the US economy

[PlanoDano]

The current cycle of longer expansion followed by deep recession is stressful. 8 quarter moderate expansion followed by 2 quarter mild recession would be about perfect. There seems to be no way for the fed or government to control these things and when they do try, it usually backfires.

[Shane]

Why would we want the government to control it? The free market is far more efficient.

[Radar]

Better off not watching the news and making investment decisions from what they are screaming about on TV. They live for drama.

Lesson learned in 1997 when everyone I worked with was in panic attacks because we all lost a lot of money in 401k, mutual funds and other investments. I never did anything and kept investing, it all came back and then some. I am conservative by nature and do not pick any extremely high risk investments,maybe I should but my pea brain wont let me.

[texasdeerhunter]

Retail sales for July came out today and the number was strong. Remember the consumer makes up 2/3’s of the economy.

Est- .4% Act - 1.0%

That’s good news.

I’ll second what was said earlier, long term rates wouldn’t be so low if the Fed hadn’t/wasn’t still manipulating the long term rates. They still hold billions of dollars on their balance sheet that has artificially suppressed long term rates (imo). Therefore, if the Fed weren’t involved and we were to let the market sort itself out, I don’t think the yield curve would be inverted.

[JLivi1224]

Economists I follow are saying that the current yield curve shows a bubble in the bond market rather than impending economic collapse. It's hard to have a recession with historically low unemployment, increased wages, low interest rates, reduced government regulation, growing corporate profits, etc... The trade war and cost of the tariffs are definitely a drag, but (so far) not a big enough drag to offset all the rest of the positive fundamentals that currently exist in the economy. As low as interest rates are in the US, they're even lower in several other countries - even negative in a few. Lots of folks around the world that want to hold some safe bonds are buying US bonds since they pay more than other governments' bonds right now. Couple that with the Fed still holding huge amounts of Treasuries, and you have a really high demand for US bonds. That leads to higher prices, which leads to lower yields. It has nothing to do with some magical ability for the yield curve to predict or cause a recession.


There's definitely another recession coming eventually. There's always another one. Everything is cyclical. But the fundamentals will need to shift in a negative direction before that can happen. Right now the fundamentals are largely positive for continued growth.

None of that means that the stock market can't experience some wild volatility. It can and will, regardless of what reality is sometimes.

Right on the money.

[UncleBubba]

The Dems are banging the rescission drum ahead of this up coming election. Throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks...........

X2

[diamond10x]

The Dems are banging the rescission drum ahead of this up coming election. Throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks...........

Yep. All it is. This is just the next play in line for them.

[PlanoDano]

I cannot disagree more. The kind of money that can create and inverted yield curve or cause a 3% daily swing in the market does not march to a dem or rep drummer at all. They march to their own drummer named ROI. They have more in common with foreigners of similar means than any political party. While others of you are feeling smug because in your mind buy and hold investing works and you doubled your money over time they increased their wealth 8X. On the down cycle they turn your ERISA money into their money - when your money goes to half it value they double theirs - then when you get back to even they have quadrupled theirs. Then when you have finally doubled they are 8X. This is the magic of when the finance industry writes laws for the finance industry. This is the magic of corporate sponsorship of our campaign finance system. So tonight bend over and give a good cheer for your nightly news tribe ("Go FOX - Go CNN") you won't even notice the tickle behind you.

[Capt.Brown]

Yep. All it is. This is just the next play in line for them.

Yup, this was a trial run to see if it’s hurts trump or not, I guarantee you the talk of recession will be back about 3 months before election. It’s all they have they can’t win on policy or debate.

[Dusty Britches]

I think it is kinda' ironic that a top ranking Democrat on the Finance committee said last week that the only thing that can stop Trump is a recession and for no apparent reason the Fed lowers interest rates.

Epoch Times reported this morning that the bond market is not signalling a recession. (Google "Bond Market Not Signaling a Recession, Experts Say")

[Hooverfb]

I think it is kinda' ironic that a top ranking Democrat on the Finance committee said last week that the only thing that can stop Trump is a recession and for no apparent reason the Fed lowers interest rates.

Epoch Times reported this morning that the bond market is not signalling a recession. (Google "Bond Market Not Signaling a Recession, Experts Say")

Yup. Theres absolutely no reason to lower rates. Needs to hold steady and shake out the chaff. That way economy actually progresses.

[PlanoDano]

Yup. Theres absolutely no reason to lower rates. Needs to hold steady and shake out the chaff. That way economy actually progresses.

Agreed, rates could even increase to reward savers. The rules which relaxed the cash reserves required to be held by banks along with the lowering of the fed rate to near zero put the last recovery squarely on the backs of those born before 1950 who held much of their savings in CDs. It was a good deal for the large financial institutions though. The were allowed to borrow money for nothing and lend it out at a profit. It is not the fault of political parties, just big time bankers helping out big time bankers.

[RiverRat1]

Agreed, rates could even increase to reward savers. The rules which relaxed the cash reserves required to be held by banks along with the lowering of the fed rate to near zero put the last recovery squarely on the backs of those born before 1950 who held much of their savings in CDs. It was a good deal for the large financial institutions though. The were allowed to borrow money for nothing and lend it out at a profit. It is not the fault of political parties, just big time bankers helping out big time bankers.

Boils down to legalized theft.

[Razrbk89]

Things aren’t really great up here economically right now, so I sure hope it doesn’t get too much worse.

It’s bound to crash out eventually, and I guess my neck of the woods is fairly insulated from major economic swings anyway. I think a lot of real estate/land investors stand to get burned on the next down turn. I see people paying quite a bit more than they should on ground that can’t make them a dollar and I’m sure there’s a ton more of that going on down there & in areas with larger population bases.

[iamntxhunter]

I think it is kinda' ironic that a top ranking Democrat on the Finance committee said last week that the only thing that can stop Trump is a recession and for no apparent reason the Fed lowers interest rates.

My thoughts as well.


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