Latest EURO, GFS, and CMC...
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Nothing on the news in Houston about this?Comment
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I havent watched the news. These are models, lets see what happens on the next few runs before we get too excited. If tge scenario continues it could potentially be a serious situation
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I'll be out that way tomorrow but last week the N side of the bridge was down to a mud hole in Zapata...Originally posted by WTN View PostComment
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What's the potential time frame for landfall?Comment
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Won't even sniff the gulf.. lol.
Sabrekiller your my hero, thanks. But honestly I only need 3-4 inches, not 20plus. Everyone watch close and be safe.Comment
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NWS discussion. As Johnny mentioned, one model trending North.
Substantial model disagreement sets in on Thursday as the GFS lingers the front through the forecast area and initiates more diurnal showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF and CMC shove the front farther south and keep a majority
of the area dry during the end of the week. Have continued to side with the slightly drier guidance and reflected a southern frontal position in the forecast. Also during this time, the remnants of Harvey should be re-intensifying in the western Gulf of Mexico. This rejuvenated tropical system is expected to make
landfall and track northwestward through the Rio Grande Valley. This solution would bring widespread heavy rain through portions of South and Central TX.
The question remains how far north this tropical system may track and what impacts it could potentially have within our forecast area. The GFS moves the circulation north through the Texas Hill Country which would bring widespread heavy rain to our Central TX
counties through next weekend. The ECMWF lingers the circulation to the south, which would keep us drier and subsident, likely resulting in very warm temperatures. Have continued to side with the drier ECMWF for now until we see some better agreement/consistency
among model runs. The signal is quite clear that some location in South/Central Texas will receive too much rainfall out of this system if it materializes as currently suggested, but it will likely be a couple days or more before we have a better idea of where this rainfall maximum could occur. Even if the system itself
does not enter our forecast area, we could still see some
enhanced rainfall chances in the form of a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE), especially if the midweek frontal zone is still draped somewhere through North TX during this time.Comment
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Very interesting info guys, thanks for your input. I learn more from reading yalls posts than any of the weather guys on TVComment
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Its whats left of TS Harvey. About to go into the Yucatán peninsula. Where it comes off will
help effect where it goes. Models are all over the place form RGV to Louisiana. Not even a COC yet. But anyone along the coast needs to keep an eye on this one. Believe if in comes off and keeps up its forward speed it will be a south Texas RGV event. If it slows down believe it will intensify and take a more northerly track. The models are all over the map probably going to have to wait for it to get into the gulf to have a better idea.Attached FilesComment
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Latest GFS run just in. It is showing a category 4 storm hitting around Corpus.
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Originally posted by Johnny View PostLatest GFS run just in. It is showing a category 4 storm hitting around Corpus.
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O crapComment
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CMC model now shows a strong hurricane coming ashore near Corpus.
UKMET model brings a category 3 hurricane ashore near Galveston.
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No more, please.Originally posted by Johnny View Post
Hopefull this sucker steers west and gives south TX some much-needed rain.Comment
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