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Old 12-06-2017, 10:24 PM   #1
unclefish
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Default Chance of snow

Can't believe Johnny Weather and others haven't started a thread on this yet.
Chance of of snow flakes for the southern half of TX.

From Jeff Linder - Meteorologist for Harris County Flood control.

Winter Storm will move across TX through early Friday.

Periods of rain mixed with sleet and snow possible tonight and again Thursday night/Friday morning.

Cold surface high pressure has built southward over the region with temperatures hovering in the low 40’s much of the day. Rainfall coverage has been plentiful today, but amounts have been generally light. Will focus on the potential for P-type transition tonight and again on Thursday night and any possible accumulations.

Tonight:

Widespread light rainfall will continue through the night as moisture overruns the cold surface dome. Surface temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 30’s overnight and some slight cooling of the air column could result in some sleet or snow mixed in with the rainfall north of I-10. Since surface temperatures ae expected to remain well above freezing any sleet/snow would melt on contact with the warm ground.

Thursday:

Expect mostly light rainfall through the day, but a strong upper level trough will approach the region Thursday afternoon with large scale lift developing. Near the surface a surge of drier air will be advecting into the region from the NNE and this will likely result in the rain shield sagging southward during the day and gradually ending from the north to the south by the afternoon hours. Will keep temperatures in the 40’s again on Thursday.

Thursday night/Friday AM:

Forecast becomes highly complicated as all winter weather events are in this part of the state. Strong trough approaches the region spring strong lift over the area. Moisture profiles are marginal, but maybe a little wetter than expected yesterday. Temperature profiles are also marginal, but better than tonight so the potential for a rain/sleet/snow mixture is slightly better on Thursday evening into Friday morning. Much will depend on how dry the surface layer becomes and if any precipitation can actually reach the ground. Think the best chances for this will be along the coast and toward Matagorda Bay. Also to be noted is some weak instability in the mid levels which can sometimes result in meso scale banding in these sort of winter weather setups that can locally enhance precipitation rates and cool the air column…we do not have a lot of experience with this down here, but snow events in 2004 and 2009 both had these fingerprints. Appears the best chances for rain mixed with sleet and snow will be along the coast and then across the coastal bend region where models are more aggressive with moisture. Not sure the thermal profiles will be as favorable as shown…meaning there may be more rain…but the trend today has been in all guidance for a higher threat of mixed precipitation especially down SW.

Other aspect that will come into play Friday morning is low temperatures which could reach freezing over portions of the area. Think the best area likely to see freezing temps. or below is along and N of HWY 105, but this is also to likely be the region with the least precipitation if any at all. Where precipitation is the heaviest (south of I-10) surface temperatures will likely remain above freezing. However should any locally enhanced snow/sleet develop then local cooling of the surface temperature toward freezing is possible and this could result in some ability of accumulation.

Overall at this time the factors involved appear to be just slightly enough out of phase to preclude widespread winter precipitation or accumulation over the region, but something that will need to be watched closely on Thursday as the parameters all come into play over the area and model trends become reality
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Old 12-06-2017, 10:29 PM   #2
Buckshot-73
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I ain't seen enough snow to make a decent line out of.

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Old 12-06-2017, 10:31 PM   #3
rut-ro
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Snow won’t sniff the area. Lol
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Old 12-06-2017, 10:59 PM   #4
unclefish
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NAM Model run through Friday.


Last edited by unclefish; 12-06-2017 at 11:03 PM..
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Old 12-06-2017, 11:10 PM   #5
horns07
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We have had snow all day here in the southern tip of new Mexico.

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Old 12-06-2017, 11:25 PM   #6
txoutdoorsman24
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Just stopped snowing here in Odessa. Was neat to see it at least
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Old 12-06-2017, 11:27 PM   #7
nothinbutwelves
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Frank Billingsley is saying the same thing
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Old 12-07-2017, 07:00 AM   #8
Playa
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I didn’t post because I didn’t think it was a realistic possibility. Lots of variable conditions have to line up for that snowfall to occur and I just think surface temps won’t make be cold enough.

But y’all post up pics I’d it happens
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Old 12-07-2017, 07:22 AM   #9
Johnny
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I will stick to hurricanes. lol In my 18 years living in Montgomery County, not once have I seen the ground white.

Interesting set up. This will be a nowcast type situation as it always is down here. I hope it plays out but I ain't touching this one.

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Old 12-07-2017, 07:35 AM   #10
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Snowing here now in Harper. About a half inch already.
Roads are icy be careful.
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Old 12-07-2017, 07:47 AM   #11
deep n the heat
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Didn’t really expect to wake up to this in Barksdale.
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Old 12-07-2017, 07:51 AM   #12
bowhuntntxn
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That's crazy that it is snowing south and west of the DFW and not even a sniff of moisture in this area.

I feel cheated.
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Old 12-07-2017, 08:01 AM   #13
Mudslinger
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Nothing here in the Panhandle either, everything south and east of us.
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Old 12-07-2017, 08:52 AM   #14
IAFFHunter18
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Coming down hard in sonora this morning....
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Old 12-07-2017, 08:55 AM   #15
Pineywoods
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We are in San Diego right now and there are snowfakes everywhere!
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Old 12-07-2017, 09:02 AM   #16
J-Mac
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A good friend of mine is working near Van Horn and sent me these pictures this morning.






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Old 12-07-2017, 09:09 AM   #17
Johnny
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Great pics! Keep the reports coming. This could turn into a half decent event for others later on.

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Old 12-07-2017, 09:15 AM   #18
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Snowing hard in Big Wells
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Old 12-07-2017, 09:44 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasTK View Post
Snowing hard in Big Wells
Man I wish I was down there. My lease is just south of big wells on the river.
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Old 12-07-2017, 09:46 AM   #20
Fordnandez
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Some guys on my lease sent me pictures of a little snow sticking on the ground in between Junction and Rocksprings.
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Old 12-07-2017, 09:47 AM   #21
150class
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Just saw video of snow coming down big time in eagle pass
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Old 12-07-2017, 10:00 AM   #22
tgil
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Just stepped outside, in Hurst, and there is a little white stuff coming down.
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Old 12-07-2017, 10:00 AM   #23
bpa556
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Name:  IMG_1346.jpg
Views: 1242
Size:  79.0 KB Brackettville. We’d probably have 10” on the ground if the ground temp wasn’t still 75 degrees! Been snowing good since 1:00 am.


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Old 12-07-2017, 11:03 AM   #24
PROLINE19
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Any snow in the Aspermont area?
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Old 12-07-2017, 11:05 AM   #25
Stins
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Anyone up near Abilene have any reports? Im headed that way tonight heading to the lease
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Old 12-07-2017, 11:49 AM   #26
SFAbowhunter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stins View Post
Anyone up near Abilene have any reports? Im headed that way tonight heading to the lease


I’m not in the area but was checking the weather and saw this for Abilene.




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Old 12-07-2017, 12:08 PM   #27
bloodstick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny View Post
I will stick to hurricanes. lol In my 18 years living in Montgomery County, not once have I seen the ground white.

Interesting set up. This will be a nowcast type situation as it always is down here. I hope it plays out but I ain't touching this one.

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Didnt it snow back in 2013? Just to your north in Walker County we got several inches then.
Wish i had a better picture.




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Old 12-07-2017, 12:14 PM   #28
Johnny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloodstick View Post
Didnt it snow back in 2013? Just to your north in Walker County we got several inches then.
Wish i had a better picture.




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No sir, we missed that one as well completely.

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Old 12-07-2017, 12:27 PM   #29
stickbowcoop
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Man I hate snow. It was one reason I was anxious to get out of PA. But we lived in the Laurel Mountains where we often got snow in feet now inches.
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Old 12-07-2017, 12:34 PM   #30
Quackerbox
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloodstick View Post
Didnt it snow back in 2013? Just to your north in Walker County we got several inches then.
Wish i had a better picture.




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Yeap, I got several cool game cam pics that day of deer under the feeder and big ole loblolly pines
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Old 12-07-2017, 12:43 PM   #31
mrpage25
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Snowing in cotulla texas
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Old 12-07-2017, 02:00 PM   #32
J Sweet
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Lost Maples Park is getting dusted now so its moving East quickly.
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Old 12-07-2017, 03:02 PM   #33
91cavgt
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We have some very light snow coming down right now just north of Waco.
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Old 12-07-2017, 03:23 PM   #34
rtjh
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Lots of snow in Carrizo Springs this morning, wish I was hunting down there right now.
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Old 12-07-2017, 03:25 PM   #35
bullets13
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It would be nice to see some here in setx. It's been awhile
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Old 12-07-2017, 03:56 PM   #36
Tx_Wader
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Maverick County today.
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Old 12-07-2017, 04:08 PM   #37
jimned
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No snow in Abilene
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Old 12-07-2017, 04:11 PM   #38
hammer63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tx_Wader View Post
Maverick County today.
Awesome picture!
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Old 12-07-2017, 04:20 PM   #39
roberts
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Small flakes falling in North Austin as we speak. They are small and melting on contact.
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Old 12-07-2017, 04:23 PM   #40
Hillary
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Crossing my fingers for a few flakes tonight. Would make my little girl so happy.
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Old 12-07-2017, 04:24 PM   #41
Gary Roberson
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Starting to snow a little in Menard.
Adios,
Gary
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Old 12-07-2017, 05:41 PM   #42
Muskles
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We've had flurries in Jacksonville for a couple hours now. 39 degrees out though.

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Old 12-07-2017, 06:13 PM   #43
Stoof
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South Austin right now.



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Old 12-07-2017, 06:20 PM   #44
AgBass01
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Been snowing in Round Rock for about 45 minutes. Nothing accumulating though.
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Old 12-07-2017, 06:25 PM   #45
TildenHunter
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Snowing in Utopia pretty good. Not really sticking.....yet
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Old 12-07-2017, 06:31 PM   #46
Leonhogboy
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Snowing big flakes in north Austin right now.
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Old 12-07-2017, 06:37 PM   #47
BigL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AgBass01 View Post
Been snowing in Round Rock for about 45 minutes. Nothing accumulating though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonhogboy View Post
Snowing big flakes in north Austin right now.
Wish it would stick. My daughter is excited. It's her first time seeing snow
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Old 12-07-2017, 06:59 PM   #48
bloodstick
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Currently snowing here in western walker county near Bedias. Not sticking, and not really visible in a picture




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Old 12-07-2017, 06:59 PM   #49
150class
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Up at the lease near Boerne about 20 mins ago

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Old 12-07-2017, 07:03 PM   #50
150class
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Last 2 photos from the Covert







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