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Old 06-12-2018, 08:21 PM   #151
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Bring on the rain!
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Old 06-12-2018, 08:37 PM   #152
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Bring it up to Mills county. About 8 inches behind for the year.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:20 PM   #153
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Thatís it. Thanks
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:21 AM   #154
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Everyone is a weather expert on here I wonder if these were the same comments they were saying about harvey when it first popped up
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Old 06-13-2018, 06:28 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by Zjesse22 View Post
Everyone is a weather expert on here I wonder if these were the same comments they were saying about harvey when it first popped up


No. Actually......a few of the ďweather expertsĒ on here were warning people. Saying that the initial prediction of rain fall from the media wasnít accurate. Have you read the thread from last year?


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Old 06-13-2018, 06:40 AM   #156
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Originally Posted by Zjesse22 View Post
Everyone is a weather expert on here I wonder if these were the same comments they were saying about harvey when it first popped up
Great, insightful and productive post. I wonder how long you will be contributing meaningful info as such. Relax Francis, this site is chock full of people willing to help at any given moment.
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Old 06-13-2018, 06:48 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by Sackett View Post
Great, insightful and productive post. I wonder how long you will be contributing meaningful info as such. Relax Francis, this site is chock full of people willing to help at any given moment.
I am actually in hitchcock at the moment working and ready to help if needed just like i did last year. I donít see many productive postís on here besides fishing the bay... but anyway ive been tracking this storm since they first made this post and check every few hours for information to see if I need to be ready at any given moment that things change. Btw thanks for the links people have posted very helpful and no not being sarcastic.
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Old 06-13-2018, 06:48 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by Zjesse22 View Post
Everyone is a weather expert on here I wonder if these were the same comments they were saying about harvey when it first popped up
Guess you didnít know who to listen to on the Harvey thread or simply didnít read and tossing out accusations? Thereís a couple that love this stuff and are pretty accurate most of the time (more accurate then lots of weather men & women at least).

Know who to follow and itís usually pretty helpful.
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Old 06-13-2018, 06:58 AM   #159
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Guess you didnít know who to listen to on the Harvey thread or simply didnít read and tossing out accusations? Thereís a couple that love this stuff and are pretty accurate most of the time (more accurate then lots of weather men & women at least).

Know who to follow and itís usually pretty helpful.
Thats good for them their info is useful i just hope people dont underestimate this disturbance as just a sniff in the gulf
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Old 06-13-2018, 07:09 AM   #160
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Thats good for them their info is useful i just hope people dont underestimate this disturbance as just a sniff in the gulf
trust me, someone stuck their foot in their mouth and said this about Harvey so many on here take it seriously lol
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Old 06-13-2018, 07:26 AM   #161
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Tropical Tidbits is sure looking good for some much needed rain coming my way. Although it looks like we won't get a lot it will span over several days.
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Old 06-13-2018, 07:31 AM   #162
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How far inland is the rain expected? Will it cover a good chunk of Texas? Iím going to Bandera for the weekend and wanting to know if itís going to be a rainout or just a chance?


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Old 06-13-2018, 09:00 AM   #163
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Bring it up to Mills county. About 8 inches behind for the year.
No kidding, it is bad. Starting to feel like 2011
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Old 06-13-2018, 09:24 AM   #164
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Bring it up to Mills county. About 8 inches behind for the year.
It probably wont make it west of I35 as usual.
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Old 06-13-2018, 09:43 AM   #165
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Man I don't think past central Texas very far but probably to Bandera. They were saying this morning that the Panhandle, which needs it badly, will not be affected.
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How far inland is the rain expected? Will it cover a good chunk of Texas? I’m going to Bandera for the weekend and wanting to know if it’s going to be a rainout or just a chance?


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Old 06-13-2018, 09:52 AM   #166
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Morning Update from Jeff Lindner with HCFCD.

Quote:
Rain chances will be increasing as moisture begins to arrive into the area from the Gulf of Mexico

Heavy rainfall will be possible Saturday-Monday

Tropical feature (91L) continues to fester in the SW Caribbean Sea with little change in organization in the last 24 hours. Surface analysis continues to show this feature as an open trough of low pressure with no defined low level circulation. Given the proximity of this feature to the land areas of central America no development is expected through the next 48 hours. Eventually this feature will move into the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico Friday into Saturday. Strong wind shear of 40-50kts is currently in place across the western and southwestern Gulf of Mexico and while this shear will likely weaken some as tropical storm Bud in the eastern Pacific weakens, there is forecast to remain a good bit of shear across the western Gulf into the weekend. This should prevent any sort of defined organization to the tropical wave axis and the NHC currently gives the potential for development at a low 20% through the next 5 days.

As mentionedÖregardless of developmentÖa large plume of deep tropical moisture with PWS values of 2.0-2.5 inches will be crossing the Gulf of Mexico Friday and arriving along the TX coast Saturday-Monday. This air mass will have origins in the extreme SW Caribbean Sea and also a tap of mid and high level moisture from the remains of Bud in the eastern Pacific. Expect the air mass over SE TX to saturate Saturday with numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading inland in waves from the Gulf of Mexico. There is some decent agreement in the model guidance that the ďstreamĒ of moisture will continue to be aimed at the NW Gulf coast roughly between Matagorda Bay and SW LA into Monday with bands of rainfall developing and spreading across that region. Overall the pattern looks wet starting Saturday and continuing well into next week.

Rainfall Amounts:
Global model guidance is in general agreement favoring the areas between Matagorda Bay and SW LA for the highest rainfall totals over the next 7 days, but exactly where any sort of training bands develop in the that region remains a question. The time period from Sunday into Monday may feature the greatest chance for widespread rainfall over the area, but the confidence is still not high. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches appear possible over the region with higher isolated amounts. Those higher isolated amounts will be a result of any sustained training bands that might anchor in the very tropical air mass. This is the type of air mass that will result in intense short duration rainfall totals of 2-3 inches in an hour. One other potential to watch for in the coming days will be the idea for morning storms near the coast or just offshore to ďrobĒ the inland flow of moisture and focus the heaviest rainfall near the coast or just offshore. These sort of very tropical air masses tend to like to focus development in the early morning hours (2-7am) near the coast. This type of pattern could result in the maximum totals close to the coast or offshore

Rainfall totals will need adjusting over the next 24-72 hours as confidence increases where the greatest moisture axis will establish and where the potential for training rainfall will be greatest.

Hydro:
Grounds across much of SE TX are dry to very dry with the lack of recent rainfall. Moderate to severe drought conditions are in place especially across the SW half of the region. Initial rainfall will likely be quickly absorbed by the dry grounds and run-off will be limited, but grounds will gradually saturate and run-off increase as the event prolongs over multiple days. Flash Flood guidance for Harris County is running about 4 inches in 1 hour up to 5.5 inches in 6 hours before significant amounts of run-off would occur. Over the region the 6-hr flash flood guidance ranges between 5.0-6.4 inches. Overall the grounds will be able to handle much of the expected rainfall as long as it does not all fall in a short period of time.

Marine:
Tropical wave axis will move into the coastal waters starting Friday evening with increasing numerous showers and thunderstorms and squalls over the weekend. Winds will increase out of the ESE/SE starting late Friday into the 20-25kt range by Sunday. Seas will build through the day on Saturday into the 5-7 foot range and 7-9 feet on Sunday. Long period swells and ESE fetch will likely result in minor wave and water level run-up on the Gulf beaches by late in the weekend into early next week. Water levels along the coast late this weekend into early next week are currently forecasted to remain below advisory levels, but could be running 1.5-2.5 feet above MLLW by Saturday.
7 Day QPF
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Old 06-13-2018, 09:53 AM   #167
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Originally Posted by Rack Ranch View Post
Man I don't think past central Texas very far but probably to Bandera. They were saying this morning that the Panhandle, which needs it badly, will not be affected.
Iíve seeen anywhere from .5Ē to nada for the panhandle. Texas storms donít usually benefit us, unless they hit at the Rio and spin n and west a bit. Pacific storms do us the most good, and there is one of those too. Would be nicely timed after many guys have had to replant. Seems most cotton up here either got hailed out, blown out or died because of no rain at all.
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Old 06-13-2018, 10:17 AM   #168
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Combines running 24 a day right now trying to get the grain they can out...Actually starting cutting last week. This rain is going to hit the cotton perfect, just started blooming out.
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Iíve seeen anywhere from .5Ē to nada for the panhandle. Texas storms donít usually benefit us, unless they hit at the Rio and spin n and west a bit. Pacific storms do us the most good, and there is one of those too. Would be nicely timed after many guys have had to replant. Seems most cotton up here either got hailed out, blown out or died because of no rain at all.
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Old 06-13-2018, 11:29 AM   #169
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Although we need the rain, my family and I are flying back in to Houston on Sunday from Hawaii. From beautiful weather to possible hurricane. Thanks to those that have updated. This is where I get my forecast.
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Old 06-13-2018, 11:37 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by Rack Ranch View Post
Combines running 24 a day right now trying to get the grain they can out...Actually starting cutting last week. This rain is going to hit the cotton perfect, just started blooming out.

Unfortunately, itís going to be a little late for the cotton. It will help fill out bolls, but a lot of it has already shed squares. There are some people it would really help, especially what was replanted after the crazy winds. Kind of a catch 22 since guys are now rushing to get grain out.

Still, I would like 2-3 inches of rain. Hell, it can rain more in Portland.


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Old 06-13-2018, 11:43 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by Grndchecker View Post
Although we need the rain, my family and I are flying back in to Houston on Sunday from Hawaii. From beautiful weather to possible hurricane. Thanks to those that have updated. This is where I get my forecast.
See you at iah. We come back from cabo same day. One storm to another
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:40 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by SoTXAg06 View Post
Unfortunately, itís going to be a little late for the cotton. It will help fill out bolls, but a lot of it has already shed squares. There are some people it would really help, especially what was replanted after the crazy winds. Kind of a catch 22 since guys are now rushing to get grain out.

Still, I would like 2-3 inches of rain. Hell, it can rain more in Portland.


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I think he was actually talking about panhandle cotton, most of which was just planted before the June 5 deadline or being replanted now
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Old 06-14-2018, 07:05 AM   #173
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https://spacecityweather.com/tropica...end/#more-7736

Sounding a lot less ominous than a couple days ago. Do the experts here agree?
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Old 06-14-2018, 08:52 AM   #174
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I just hope we get some good rain out of it. No strong winds, but 2-3" of good rain over a couple days.

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Old 06-14-2018, 09:00 AM   #175
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Looks like it will be a better chance of rain from Houston to east Texas than in my area of the coast, but I hope they are wrong
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Old 06-15-2018, 10:34 AM   #176
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Any updates on this?
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Old 06-15-2018, 12:14 PM   #177
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Any updates on this?
No tropical development, just a slug of rain
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Old 06-15-2018, 12:16 PM   #178
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No tropical development, just a slug of rain
A slug of rain can cripple Houston. I do need a good rain to fill my new dug out pond and to fill up my other one. My cows and grass need it.
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Old 06-15-2018, 05:13 PM   #179
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Where are you experts seeing the heavier rain forecasts setting up?


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Old 06-15-2018, 05:55 PM   #180
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A slug of rain can cripple Houston. I do need a good rain to fill my new dug out pond and to fill up my other one. My cows and grass need it.
Yes it can!!
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Old 06-15-2018, 08:15 PM   #181
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No expert here, but from what I've seen it seems like models want to keep a lot of moisture down south & focused on the coast. Still hoping to get a few inches here in Cypress though! It looks like rain chances are pretty good into mid next week.

The wave behind old 91L looks pretty vigorous today, and better than 91L ever did. Low level vorticity looks pretty good. Still don't get the vibe that it has a great chance of developing much though.

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Old 06-15-2018, 09:06 PM   #182
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On the news this evening on KPRC ol' Frankie showed the bulk of the system going in between Corpus and Brownsville... That'd be perfect for our new property in Webb County... hopefully the rain makes it that far inland! We need a tank filler.
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Old 06-16-2018, 09:01 AM   #183
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As of 9:00 am it is still headed to Houston.

Tropics are tricky. Old Invest 91 is still hanging around Mexico this AM and firing off some decent convection. Sunny vacation plans for some in Cancun have been in jeopardy. NHC still at a 10% chance as it is expected to head NW... with rains starting tomorrow and lasting through early week. Upper shear ahead is relaxing some so this could throw a small wrench in things. Lower shear is still strong from the SE with no clear circulation showing. Upper level low to the east spinning helping some (link below). Maybe still just a rainmaker but these weak systems with slow movements should be watched as you just never know in the tropics.
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Old 06-16-2018, 10:42 AM   #184
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Wish I would have seen this sooner. Me and the Wife are headed to Galveston for our Anniversary tomorrow-Wednesday I donít mind rain we can still relax and eat, but I donít want to be in a hurricane.


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Old Yesterday, 09:02 AM   #185
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Firing up this morning 100 miles off Galveston, and what is forming over the Yucatan Peninsula? Another one. Now Mikes Weather page is talking about a next Thursday weather event for our coast.....

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImag..._None_anim.gif
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Old Yesterday, 09:27 AM   #186
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The 50% chance of rain on Houston went nowhere. This morning the 100% was supposed to start at 4am....then went to 80%.....so far nothing. Not a drop. Now the forecast has moved the rain to noon. I think the Wife and I will take a walk just in case it actually starts to rain. Sure could use it on my yard.
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Old Yesterday, 09:38 AM   #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacobh05 View Post
Wish I would have seen this sooner. Me and the Wife are headed to Galveston for our Anniversary tomorrow-Wednesday I donít mind rain we can still relax and eat, but I donít want to be in a hurricane.


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I am heading down there I a few hours and staying for the week. This won't be a hurricane but tonight and into Tuesday looks pretty messy with heavy rain and squally weather. Rain will linger for most of the week. I'm just hoping them trout will come int the lights at night with the Bay fixing to get rough.

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Old Yesterday, 09:41 AM   #188
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It’s rough here in Liverpool. 90 degrees and a slight breeze out by the pool. Wish we had a little rain though.
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Old Yesterday, 09:51 AM   #189
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I guess the rain is coming...radar looks pretty non-eventful right now. Hardly showing any rain right now. I hope we get some, it’s dry
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Old Yesterday, 10:08 AM   #190
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Local Mets really downplaying things. Guess it all depends where bands set up. That blob about 150 mi off Galveston looks to pack a punch


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Old Yesterday, 10:13 AM   #191
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Raining in S. Houston last 45 minutes or so.............
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Old Yesterday, 10:24 AM   #192
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What I watched this morning made it look pretty uneventful until Monday afternoon. Keeps moving further back which makes me question how much we'll actually get. Interested in whats setting up behind this system. Hope it comes through as well.

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Old Yesterday, 11:09 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by Johnny Dangerr View Post
Raining in S. Houston last 45 minutes or so.............
Just got here Johnny! Light drizzle but looks like more is coming. At least my sprinkler system can take a small break.
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Old Yesterday, 11:26 AM   #194
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send to DeWitt county, need rain bad!!
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Old Yesterday, 01:54 PM   #195
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Starting to get a little concerned with the trend in the euro rainfall projections. Has been showing some big totals, but keeps shifting up the coast. Absolutely hammers coastal bend area, and some pretty high totals up through SETX. Not sounding any alarms, but something to keep an eye on for sure. Through Thursday AM below..



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Old Yesterday, 01:59 PM   #196
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Meteorologists are getting to be about as bad as paparazi reporting trash.


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Old Yesterday, 02:42 PM   #197
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Originally Posted by ccbluewater View Post
Starting to get a little concerned with the trend in the euro rainfall projections. Has been showing some big totals, but keeps shifting up the coast. Absolutely hammers coastal bend area, and some pretty high totals up through SETX. Not sounding any alarms, but something to keep an eye on for sure. Through Thursday AM below..



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Main area I have my eye on right now is the area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan seems to be feeding on the remnant moisture from whats left of Carlotta streaming across Central America. If this thing emerges over the BOC and shear relaxes it could develop into a formidable weather maker for us.
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Old Yesterday, 02:46 PM   #198
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Old Yesterday, 02:54 PM   #199
.243 WSSM
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Originally Posted by Playa View Post
I think he was actually talking about panhandle cotton, most of which was just planted before the June 5 deadline or being replanted now
Too late for replant cotton now. Milo is the rule this late
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Old Yesterday, 02:56 PM   #200
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Sinton, Texas
Hunt In: Refugio, San Patricio counties and viva mexico !
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What our cc local guy just posted.


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