Hurricane "Season" 2017

[Sackett]

Breaker - 19, Johnny, you got your ears on?

[Quackerbox]

Tagging for weatherman Johnny

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[Sackett]

I hope the GFS is wrong on this one as it has the system that came off The Yucatan coming just offshore central Louisiana as a weak TS or depression and stalling out for 2-1/2 days a la TS Allison in 2000. That would bring a ton of rain to areas of LA and MS already saturated.

Forecast Models - Tropical Tidbits
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[.243 WSSM]

Euro is typically more accurate than GFS but at this point too early in the game and will most likely be a blend/average between the two. Direction will be dependent on timing of ridging and troughing which will pull or push the direction of this storm. Would like to hear Johnny's thoughts. I trust his take on it

[Bort]

In for the Green Screen's forecast.

[Pineywoods]

Come on t*rd floater! We need the rain. My place is a powder keg.

[bauce302]

Wont sniff the gulf!

[SaltwaterSlick]

Originally Posted by Pineywoods

Come on t*rd floater! We need the rain. My place is a powder keg.

Speak fo yo seff!! ... specially if you're talkin' New Caney... We don't need no big rain out on the Prairie (Tarkington)... My wife's garden has been damaged badly by too much rain already... Need a couple weeks for her corn to make, then it can rain...

[axisbuck24]

Tuned in and waiting on Johnny for his thoughts.

[Agdog]

Tagged

[ccbluewater]

http://discussions.texasbowhunter.co...d.php?t=649211

Another discussion on this.

[TexasBob]

In for the discussion here or on the other. Hardcore weather is a ghost town. 72 hours from the high probability of a tropical storm/flooding event along the gulf coast and all is pretty quiet.


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[ccbluewater]

Originally Posted by TexasBob

In for the discussion here or on the other. Hardcore weather is a ghost town. 72 hours from the high probability of a tropical storm/flooding event along the gulf coast and all is pretty quiet.


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A good place to keep up to date on our Area weather is the KHOU weather board.. Lots of Pro Mets post there, and there is good in depth discussion.

http://forums.khou.com/viewforum.php?f=2

The best tropical board, in my opinion, is storm2k.org. Look in the Talking tropics, or once a storm is designated an Invest/TD/TS/HUR the active storms pages.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/index.php

[chadt1234]

So is it time to evacuate?

[RMW]

Latest models... keeps inching closer and closer with every new update

[Chad C]

We're headed to PCB in a few days. Storms need to chill out.

[ccbluewater]

The way it looks, even if the storm came ashore on the TX Coast, the heaviest impact is going to be the very heavy rains that the Northern Gulf Coast states get.. Saw the 7 Day Rainfall chart from the WPC and its slamming the SE LA & MS/AL coast with upwards of 8-10" of rain.. and totals in places could be way higher.

[TexasBob]

Ccbluewater I expect the red and orange to start shifting west along with the models.


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[ccbluewater]

Originally Posted by TexasBob

Ccbluewater I expect the red and orange to start shifting west along with the models.


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It will to some extent, but those areas pointed out will still be getting inundated with heavy rains far East of the center. Almost all of the convection at this point is well East of where the "center" is being placed.

[Pineywoods]

Originally Posted by SaltwaterSlick

Speak fo yo seff!! ... specially if you're talkin' New Caney... We don't need no big rain out on the Prairie (Tarkington)... My wife's garden has been damaged badly by too much rain already... Need a couple weeks for her corn to make, then it can rain...

Yah our couple acres in New Caney is on a big sand hill and is DRY! Maybe we can get 3-4 inches and it'll miss the Prairie

[SaltwaterSlick]

Originally Posted by Pineywoods

Yah our couple acres in New Caney is on a big sand hill and is DRY! Maybe we can get 3-4 inches and it'll miss the Prairie

[TexasBob]

Any word on recon flight?


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[KC Huntin]

Originally Posted by RMW

Latest models... keeps inching closer and closer with every new update

Where is this info from?

[Montec man]

If you want up to the minute info on recon flights and models Storm2k is a good place to look.

[Man]

Bring it

[Traildust]

Looks like the OK suckage is pulling it in!

Sons 7th birthday party is Saturday. .....so either before or after will work. Preferably after.

[RMW]

Originally Posted by KC Huntin

Where is this info from?

Download the Hurricane Tracker App. Lots of great info

[bloodstick]

Things have gotten dry in a hurry out in Walker County, at least in my little piece. We could use a good soaking right about now. This is when it normally gets unbearably hot and dry until late august.

[Hank Hill]

The hill country is cursed. 0.10"

[ccbluewater]

Recon is en route,and should be onsite around 3PM to 93L. Another plane is already flying 92L currently.

[Saltyag15]

Originally Posted by bloodstick

Things have gotten dry in a hurry out in Walker County, at least in my little piece. We could use a good soaking right about now. This is when it normally gets unbearably hot and dry until late august.

No kidding. These back to back high 90s are going to start taking a toll on everything really soon.

[1369]

Originally Posted by ccbluewater

Recon is en route,and should be onsite around 3PM to 93L. Another plane is already flying 92L currently.

If you're running Google Earth, you can view the flights in real time here.

[ccbluewater]

Latest Euro has this sitting offshore of the Freeport-Galveston area Thursday morning as a Moderate Tropical Storm, although weakening a tad as it approaches the coast.

Canadian has a little stronger system basically coming up West side of Galveston.

GFS and its parallel model are still further East.

Recon should help the models, and if its designated the NHC will start issuing advisories and they are way more reliable than the constant swings of the models. Hopefully that is what happens, but not sure if they will find enough of a closed circulation to do so.

Kinda get the feeling Houston area wont get much rain out of this, but South La is going to get way more than they want. Just my opinion however, and please stay updated through NOAA/NHC as this unfolds.

[axisbuck24]

Any update?

[d_e_smith]

Originally Posted by SaltwaterSlick

Speak fo yo seff!! ... specially if you're talkin' New Caney... We don't need no big rain out on the Prairie (Tarkington)... My wife's garden has been damaged badly by too much rain already... Need a couple weeks for her corn to make, then it can rain...

Surely you were able to store the surplus produced from all the rain last year.

[Traildust]

Originally Posted by axisbuck24

Any update?

We are all gonna die......buy water and canned goods!

[J Sweet]

Originally Posted by Traildust

We are all gonna die......buy water and canned goods!

36 cans of Campbells thick n hearty stews here and. 7.5 gallons of Ozarka. Oh and a half gallon of whiskey.


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[axisbuck24]

Originally Posted by Traildust

We are all gonna die......buy water and canned goods!

This lady likes to be informed don't let the blonde fool you. Stocking up on Cheez-IT

[waterdog]

got t.s.don this afternoon. don't think it will grow much?.......http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi..._with_line.png

[Sackett]

Originally Posted by waterdog

got t.s.don this afternoon. don't think it will grow much?.......http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi..._with_line.png

Was watching the report from WU and every model has it going straight to the Pacific over Nicaragua as of now.....if it lasts. Crazy stuff going on over in the Pacific right now.

[firemanjj82]

Top. Anything going on?

[thorthunder]

Hillary is churning in the Pacific. Would be something to see it hit the socialist republic named Hawaii............

[tvc184]

Originally Posted by firemanjj82

Top. Anything going on?

Absolutely. MLB is in their second half of the season, the NFL has teams starting training camps and high school two a days are right around the corner.

In the tropics, all is quiet. Fear not, August is right around the corner.

[waterdog]

Tropical Storm Franklin in the western Caribbean. Moving into an increasingly favorable environment for further development, Franklin is likely to strengthen as it moves toward the Yucatan over the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm warnings are now in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula, as impacts in that area may be felt as early as Monday afternoon. From there, this system should move across the Bay of Campeche and into eastern Mexico late Wednesday into early Thursday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely in the aforementioned areas, but at this time, no U.S. impacts are expected.

[Traildust]

Originally Posted by waterdog

Tropical Storm Franklin in the western Caribbean. Moving into an increasingly favorable environment for further development, Franklin is likely to strengthen as it moves toward the Yucatan over the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm warnings are now in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula, as impacts in that area may be felt as early as Monday afternoon. From there, this system should move across the Bay of Campeche and into eastern Mexico late Wednesday into early Thursday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely in the aforementioned areas, but at this time, no U.S. impacts are expected.

Not even a Sniff!

[Bowtech Shooter]

we are leaving for south Padre this afternoon and staying till Saturday. Is it going to be a wet one down there?

[Traildust]

Originally Posted by Bowtech Shooter

we are leaving for south Padre this afternoon and staying till Saturday. Is it going to be a wet one down there?

Yes, that water will be wet. Dress accordingly.

[ccbluewater]

Franklin is on the verge of blowing up! Best looking storm in the Atlantic so far this season as of this morning, and on the verge of becoming a Hurricane; possibly as early as today. Recon flight will be there later. Could see the track line bend up a bit north of where they are showing now, but still looks like a track into Mexico is almost a lock.

[Sackett]

Originally Posted by Traildust

Yes, that water will be wet. Dress accordingly.

Haha, LOL. You forgot dark sunglasses too so you can covertly evaluate the bikinis without the wife getting mad at you

[Sackett]

Originally Posted by Bowtech Shooter

we are leaving for south Padre this afternoon and staying till Saturday. Is it going to be a wet one down there?

I would expect some outer rain bands and increased wave height and tide, but unless it heads a lot further North, you shouldn't have anything to worry about.