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Old 06-18-2017, 08:40 PM   #1
Sackett
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Default Hurricane "Season" 2017

Breaker - 19, Johnny, you got your ears on?
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Old 06-18-2017, 08:42 PM   #2
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Tagging for weatherman Johnny

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Old 06-19-2017, 06:23 AM   #3
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I hope the GFS is wrong on this one as it has the system that came off The Yucatan coming just offshore central Louisiana as a weak TS or depression and stalling out for 2-1/2 days a la TS Allison in 2000. That would bring a ton of rain to areas of LA and MS already saturated.

Forecast Models - Tropical Tidbits
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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Old 06-19-2017, 06:35 AM   #4
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Euro is typically more accurate than GFS but at this point too early in the game and will most likely be a blend/average between the two. Direction will be dependent on timing of ridging and troughing which will pull or push the direction of this storm. Would like to hear Johnny's thoughts. I trust his take on it
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Old 06-19-2017, 06:39 AM   #5
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In for the Green Screen's forecast.
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Old 06-19-2017, 07:30 AM   #6
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Come on t*rd floater! We need the rain. My place is a powder keg.
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Old 06-19-2017, 07:50 AM   #7
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Wont sniff the gulf!
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Old 06-19-2017, 07:51 AM   #8
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Come on t*rd floater! We need the rain. My place is a powder keg.
Speak fo yo seff!! ... specially if you're talkin' New Caney... We don't need no big rain out on the Prairie (Tarkington)... My wife's garden has been damaged badly by too much rain already... Need a couple weeks for her corn to make, then it can rain...
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Old 06-19-2017, 08:09 AM   #9
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Tuned in and waiting on Johnny for his thoughts.
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Old 06-19-2017, 08:14 AM   #10
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Tagged
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Old 06-19-2017, 08:18 AM   #11
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http://discussions.texasbowhunter.co...d.php?t=649211

Another discussion on this.
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Old 06-19-2017, 08:51 AM   #12
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In for the discussion here or on the other. Hardcore weather is a ghost town. 72 hours from the high probability of a tropical storm/flooding event along the gulf coast and all is pretty quiet.


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Old 06-19-2017, 09:06 AM   #13
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In for the discussion here or on the other. Hardcore weather is a ghost town. 72 hours from the high probability of a tropical storm/flooding event along the gulf coast and all is pretty quiet.


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A good place to keep up to date on our Area weather is the KHOU weather board.. Lots of Pro Mets post there, and there is good in depth discussion.

http://forums.khou.com/viewforum.php?f=2

The best tropical board, in my opinion, is storm2k.org. Look in the Talking tropics, or once a storm is designated an Invest/TD/TS/HUR the active storms pages.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/index.php
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:19 AM   #14
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So is it time to evacuate?
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:29 AM   #15
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Latest models... keeps inching closer and closer with every new update
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:31 AM   #16
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We're headed to PCB in a few days. Storms need to chill out.
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:47 AM   #17
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The way it looks, even if the storm came ashore on the TX Coast, the heaviest impact is going to be the very heavy rains that the Northern Gulf Coast states get.. Saw the 7 Day Rainfall chart from the WPC and its slamming the SE LA & MS/AL coast with upwards of 8-10" of rain.. and totals in places could be way higher.
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:50 AM   #18
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Ccbluewater I expect the red and orange to start shifting west along with the models.


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Old 06-19-2017, 09:59 AM   #19
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Ccbluewater I expect the red and orange to start shifting west along with the models.


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It will to some extent, but those areas pointed out will still be getting inundated with heavy rains far East of the center. Almost all of the convection at this point is well East of where the "center" is being placed.
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Old 06-19-2017, 11:14 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by SaltwaterSlick View Post
Speak fo yo seff!! ... specially if you're talkin' New Caney... We don't need no big rain out on the Prairie (Tarkington)... My wife's garden has been damaged badly by too much rain already... Need a couple weeks for her corn to make, then it can rain...
Yah our couple acres in New Caney is on a big sand hill and is DRY! Maybe we can get 3-4 inches and it'll miss the Prairie
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:05 PM   #21
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Yah our couple acres in New Caney is on a big sand hill and is DRY! Maybe we can get 3-4 inches and it'll miss the Prairie
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:09 PM   #22
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Any word on recon flight?


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Old 06-19-2017, 01:17 PM   #23
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Latest models... keeps inching closer and closer with every new update


Where is this info from?
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:22 PM   #24
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If you want up to the minute info on recon flights and models Storm2k is a good place to look.
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:26 PM   #25
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Bring it
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:29 PM   #26
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Looks like the OK suckage is pulling it in!

Sons 7th birthday party is Saturday. .....so either before or after will work. Preferably after.
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:31 PM   #27
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Where is this info from?
Download the Hurricane Tracker App. Lots of great info
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:34 PM   #28
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Things have gotten dry in a hurry out in Walker County, at least in my little piece. We could use a good soaking right about now. This is when it normally gets unbearably hot and dry until late august.
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:36 PM   #29
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The hill country is cursed. 0.10"
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:36 PM   #30
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Recon is en route,and should be onsite around 3PM to 93L. Another plane is already flying 92L currently.
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:40 PM   #31
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Things have gotten dry in a hurry out in Walker County, at least in my little piece. We could use a good soaking right about now. This is when it normally gets unbearably hot and dry until late august.
No kidding. These back to back high 90s are going to start taking a toll on everything really soon.
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:44 PM   #32
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Recon is en route,and should be onsite around 3PM to 93L. Another plane is already flying 92L currently.
If you're running Google Earth, you can view the flights in real time here.
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:58 PM   #33
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Latest Euro has this sitting offshore of the Freeport-Galveston area Thursday morning as a Moderate Tropical Storm, although weakening a tad as it approaches the coast.

Canadian has a little stronger system basically coming up West side of Galveston.

GFS and its parallel model are still further East.

Recon should help the models, and if its designated the NHC will start issuing advisories and they are way more reliable than the constant swings of the models. Hopefully that is what happens, but not sure if they will find enough of a closed circulation to do so.

Kinda get the feeling Houston area wont get much rain out of this, but South La is going to get way more than they want. Just my opinion however, and please stay updated through NOAA/NHC as this unfolds.
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Old 06-19-2017, 05:51 PM   #34
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Any update?
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Old 06-19-2017, 05:55 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by SaltwaterSlick View Post
Speak fo yo seff!! ... specially if you're talkin' New Caney... We don't need no big rain out on the Prairie (Tarkington)... My wife's garden has been damaged badly by too much rain already... Need a couple weeks for her corn to make, then it can rain...
Surely you were able to store the surplus produced from all the rain last year.
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Old 06-19-2017, 06:13 PM   #36
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Any update?
We are all gonna die......buy water and canned goods!
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Old 06-19-2017, 07:37 PM   #37
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We are all gonna die......buy water and canned goods!


36 cans of Campbells thick n hearty stews here and. 7.5 gallons of Ozarka. Oh and a half gallon of whiskey.


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Old 06-19-2017, 07:50 PM   #38
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We are all gonna die......buy water and canned goods!
This lady likes to be informed don't let the blonde fool you. Stocking up on Cheez-IT
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Old 07-17-2017, 05:29 PM   #39
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got t.s.don this afternoon. don't think it will grow much?.......http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi..._with_line.png
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Old 07-17-2017, 08:32 PM   #40
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got t.s.don this afternoon. don't think it will grow much?.......http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi..._with_line.png
Was watching the report from WU and every model has it going straight to the Pacific over Nicaragua as of now.....if it lasts. Crazy stuff going on over in the Pacific right now.
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Old 07-30-2017, 01:23 PM   #41
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Top. Anything going on?
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Old 07-30-2017, 01:30 PM   #42
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Hillary is churning in the Pacific. Would be something to see it hit the socialist republic named Hawaii............
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Old 07-30-2017, 01:31 PM   #43
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Top. Anything going on?
Absolutely. MLB is in their second half of the season, the NFL has teams starting training camps and high school two a days are right around the corner.

In the tropics, all is quiet. Fear not, August is right around the corner.
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Old 08-07-2017, 06:09 AM   #44
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Tropical Storm Franklin in the western Caribbean. Moving into an increasingly favorable environment for further development, Franklin is likely to strengthen as it moves toward the Yucatan over the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm warnings are now in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula, as impacts in that area may be felt as early as Monday afternoon. From there, this system should move across the Bay of Campeche and into eastern Mexico late Wednesday into early Thursday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely in the aforementioned areas, but at this time, no U.S. impacts are expected.
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Old 08-07-2017, 07:57 AM   #45
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Tropical Storm Franklin in the western Caribbean. Moving into an increasingly favorable environment for further development, Franklin is likely to strengthen as it moves toward the Yucatan over the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm warnings are now in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula, as impacts in that area may be felt as early as Monday afternoon. From there, this system should move across the Bay of Campeche and into eastern Mexico late Wednesday into early Thursday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely in the aforementioned areas, but at this time, no U.S. impacts are expected.
Not even a Sniff!
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Old 08-07-2017, 08:00 AM   #46
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we are leaving for south Padre this afternoon and staying till Saturday. Is it going to be a wet one down there?
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Old 08-07-2017, 08:04 AM   #47
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we are leaving for south Padre this afternoon and staying till Saturday. Is it going to be a wet one down there?
Yes, that water will be wet. Dress accordingly.
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Old 08-07-2017, 08:51 AM   #48
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Franklin is on the verge of blowing up! Best looking storm in the Atlantic so far this season as of this morning, and on the verge of becoming a Hurricane; possibly as early as today. Recon flight will be there later. Could see the track line bend up a bit north of where they are showing now, but still looks like a track into Mexico is almost a lock.
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Old 08-07-2017, 09:15 AM   #49
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Yes, that water will be wet. Dress accordingly.
Haha, LOL. You forgot dark sunglasses too so you can covertly evaluate the bikinis without the wife getting mad at you
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Old 08-07-2017, 09:18 AM   #50
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Quote:
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we are leaving for south Padre this afternoon and staying till Saturday. Is it going to be a wet one down there?
I would expect some outer rain bands and increased wave height and tide, but unless it heads a lot further North, you shouldn't have anything to worry about.
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