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Old 06-17-2017, 08:17 AM   #51
Encinal
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We need one to hit around Brownsville.
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Old 06-17-2017, 08:39 AM   #52
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Ok, so I'm supposed to board a boat in Venice next Sunday and head offshore. What are the odds this storm messes that up?
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Old 06-17-2017, 08:58 AM   #53
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Cotton growers dont want it. Too late to help. Only cause pain Dont retire Johnny.
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Old 06-17-2017, 11:07 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by Farmdog View Post
Cotton growers dont want it. Too late to help. Only cause pain Dont retire Johnny.
Northern cotton farmers need it, but it needs to hit may-he-co move interior and swing NE and rain on I-20 north
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Old 06-17-2017, 11:17 AM   #55
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We are starting corn harvest next week. Our Soybeans could sure use some rain
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Old 06-18-2017, 06:48 AM   #56
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Looking better organized this morning. Models still somewhat split with the GFS consistent with faster developing storm hitting the Florida panhandle sometime Wednesday. The Euro has consistently shown more westerly track into MX/tx. Most recent run brings it a bit more North. Other models are in between those.

Recon is going to fly the storm today and should allow the models and everything to get a better handle on what's to come the next few days.

In my non-professional GUESS I'd say a weak Tropical Storm from Brownsville to Port Aransas on Thursday.


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Last edited by ccbluewater; 06-18-2017 at 06:51 AM..
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Old 06-18-2017, 05:01 PM   #57
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The models are starting to agree on a more westerly track. We should know a lot more on Tuesday after the low crosses the Yucatan. It's kinda stuck between a high to the East and a high to the west and they're not sure about the steering currents yet.
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Old 06-18-2017, 05:31 PM   #58
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tagged for future updates.
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Old 06-18-2017, 05:42 PM   #59
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Following
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Old 06-18-2017, 05:56 PM   #60
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Old 06-18-2017, 06:10 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by super_dave View Post
Ok, so I'm supposed to board a boat in Venice next Sunday and head offshore. What are the odds this storm messes that up?
I'm fishing out of Houma Friday and Sunday and then heading to Venice for Mon-Wednesday.
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Old 06-18-2017, 08:47 PM   #62
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Still alot in play on this system, I kinda see a weakness in the ridge to the west that COULD possibly pull it west into Texas. Several possibilities right now, the Euro has been fairly consistent from the beginning so I would definitely pay attention to that model. The GFS runs have trended west and while it isnt anywhere close to the Euro it says something...so until we get a little farther along and get some good data from recon flights its a toss up. Anyone along the gulf coast needs to keep an eye on it. I dont see a hurricane out of this but if it stalls or slows way down its not out of the realm of possibility. We have seen systems explode in the GOM and also dissipate to a rain shower as it approached the coast so its gonna be a waiting game. Welcome to the 2017 season!!

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Old 06-19-2017, 08:01 AM   #63
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Monday morning update from Jeff Lindner..

Quote:
Tropical storm likely in the Gulf of Mexico this week…a threat to the US Gulf coast

Discussion:
Disorganized tropical wave axis across the eastern Yucatan into the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning has shown little evidence of becoming any better defined overnight. Surface wind analysis shows more of an elongated trough axis than any sort of surface low. Deep convection has been firing across the western Caribbean waters much of the night, but this is well east of the sharp trough axis. The trough has become slightly better defined near the northern coast of the Yucatan where models have been suggesting for days a surface low will form.

Additionally, the upper trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico continues to produce strong shear across the central Gulf and the northern portions of the tropical wave axis. Deep tropical moisture is quickly advancing northward across the eastern gulf.

Track:
While it has been most frustrating watching the most reliable global weather forecasting computer models there is a slow but steady growing consensus on the track of this system. The complicated setup of steering flow across the Gulf of Mexico is the reason for the large spread in the model guidance with each model having its particular favored choice of which atmospheric circulation will ultimately drive the system toward the US Gulf coast. These factors include:

1) A trough over the northern Gulf coast which is fracturing and will form a weakness or upper level low over the western Gulf
2) Building sub-tropical high pressure ridges from both the SW US and the SW Atlantic.
3) A trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes

It is becoming more defined that the dominant steering pattern will evolve around the fracturing and development of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours with 93L moving northward along the eastern flank of this large scale circulation. In fact there is enough evidence in the model guidance to suggest these two circulations actually interact more and more creating varied solutions. There is general agreement that the sharp trough axis will drift WNW today with a surface low likely forming somewhere within the northern portion of this axis and moving generally N to NNW along the eastern side of the developing upper trough over the western Gulf. This motion will continue on Tuesday as the system moves into the central Gulf of Mexico, but track guidance then becomes split with the GFS tracking 93L NNW toward southern Louisiana while the ECMWF turns 93L almost due west and toward the middle TX coast by Thursday. The CMC is down the middle tracking the system toward the upper TX coast by Thursday. The key to the track will be how much influence the developing upper trough over the western Gulf has over the developing surface low.

There is enough consensus this morning to suggest that the threat for a landfalling tropical storm on the Texas/Louisiana coasts sometime from late Wednesday into late Thursday is likely.

Intensity:
93L is highly disorganized and the atmospheric setup in the Gulf of Mexico does not look very favorable for intensification. Tropical cyclones can and at times do interact with upper level troughs like the one which is forecast to be in the western Gulf this week. The surface low on the eastern side of the large scale trough must find its way into the favorable venting portion of the trough or shear will have a negative effect on the surface low. What is interesting is that several of the global and now meso scale models show such a shearing environment across the central Gulf and then actually show decent upper air conditions as the system nears the coast. Both the high resolution NAM and CMC show a fairly symmetrical system in their 54-84 hours time periods while the GFS and ECMWF show a much more elongated and lopsided presentation.

Several Gulf of Mexico tropical systems have formed in this manner and the end result is almost always a flood event somewhere along and east of the track of a broad ill defined center.

Impacts:
Will raise seas on Tuesday to 3-4 feet across our 20-60nm waters with NHC forecasting 8-12 feet approaching our outer waters on Wednesday. Increasing tides will be possible as early as Wednesday, but will keep them below 2.0 feet total water for now. Addition of larger easterly swell onto the coast on Wednesday will likely start to pile up the water to some degree. It would seem that rain chances need to be raised to at least 50% late Wednesday and this may need additional adjusting upward. Don’t want to get much more specific with impacts at this point until either there is some guidance from NHC or the model track solutions firm up more. A track of the system toward Louisiana would result in a fairly dry and hot forecast for our area while a track toward the TX coast would result in a certainly more wet forecast.

Significant forecast changes may be required for the Wed-Fri period.

Persons along the TX/LA coasts should closely monitor the progress of 93L and be prepared for adverse conditions to potentially begin impacting the coast as early as midday Wednesday.
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:17 AM   #64
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Wont sniff the gulf boys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:33 AM   #65
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The latest Euro that came out is spinning this thing up as a major tropical cyclone with the "dirty" Northeast quadrant making landfall around Port Aransas. Starting to get a bit alarming if models continue to trend this direction. Even the GFS is trending west of NOLA now.
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:34 AM   #66
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They're thinking the ridge in the Western gulf is starting to break down which will bring the storm this way.
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Old 06-19-2017, 10:34 AM   #67
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Following
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Old 06-19-2017, 10:51 AM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Montec man View Post
They're thinking the ridge in the Western gulf is starting to break down which will bring the storm this way.
Yup, thats exactly what im seeing. Its all about timing!

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Old 06-19-2017, 11:14 AM   #69
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In for some wisdom and rain.
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Old 06-19-2017, 11:38 AM   #70
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Crap were leaving for Venice on Thursday morning.
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Old 06-19-2017, 11:46 AM   #71
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Wont sniff the gulf boys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Welcome back!! Now kindly stand on the sidelines and watch how these guys work
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Old 06-19-2017, 11:58 AM   #72
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Come on Johnny update us please
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Old 06-19-2017, 12:32 PM   #73
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:48 PM   #74
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Hurricane Hunter is headed out there this afternoon to check it out. I'll be listening to the state conference call tomorrow.
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Old 06-19-2017, 02:00 PM   #75
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Its amazing what 5 days of sun and 90+ degree temps will do to the ground. We were still wet from the last round of rain last week where i couldn't run the tractor and now the ground is cracked. bring on the rain
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Old 06-19-2017, 02:14 PM   #76
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Even the latest GFS run has it hitting around the Texas/La border. Models keep moving farther and farther west. If still on this track tomorrow and I had property in flood prone areas of the upper Texas cost, I'd be getting things to a safe place. The winds shouldn't be too bad with this system but heavy rains and flood tides could cause a lot of problems in coastal areas.
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Old 06-19-2017, 02:18 PM   #77
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Another thing of interest is talk of this thing splitting into two areas of low pressure. If you look closely at the satellite imagery 1369 posted, you can see two vorticies starting to spin up. One over the Yucatan and one in the trough to the North in the GOM. Weird, disorganized system right now.
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Old 06-19-2017, 03:29 PM   #78
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Looks like it's becoming organized
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Old 06-19-2017, 03:33 PM   #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Montec man View Post
Another thing of interest is talk of this thing splitting into two areas of low pressure. If you look closely at the satellite imagery 1369 posted, you can see two vorticies starting to spin up. One over the Yucatan and one in the trough to the North in the GOM. Weird, disorganized system right now.
Yah I noticed that earlier
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Old 06-19-2017, 03:42 PM   #80
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Looks like one of them has picked up a name.

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Old 06-19-2017, 03:47 PM   #81
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NHC Going to start posting advisories for 93L, as Potential Tropical Cylcone #3.. new thing for this year to allow them to post warnings when an undesignated system is threatening land within 48 hours.

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Old 06-19-2017, 03:57 PM   #82
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Houston news just updated with it going east of Houston or west of Lafayette with a Wednesday landfall w/ 45 mph winds


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Old 06-19-2017, 04:04 PM   #83
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Kinda surprised how far to the east they put, but they are the best for a reason. This area would get nothing but clear skies, and heat if that track verifies. Feel bad for the people of South LA who just went through the horrible flooding less than a year ago.

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Old 06-19-2017, 04:08 PM   #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ccbluewater View Post
Kinda surprised how far to the east they put, but they are the best for a reason. This area would get nothing but clear skies, and heat if that track verifies. Feel bad for the people of South LA who just went through the horrible flooding less than a year ago.

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My mom and siblings live down there and they have been getting rain every day for weeks already. My mom was able to mow the grass twice in the last month. Most times, its required twice a week. So its already pretty wet and in a low lying area.
Its going to be rough for them even if it does shift west
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Old 06-19-2017, 04:22 PM   #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1369 View Post
Looks like one of them has picked up a name.

Definitely need to keep an eye on Bret as well. Could very well follow the same path as 93L. It has a lot of shear to navigate through in the Caribbean, though.
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Old 06-19-2017, 04:32 PM   #86
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Come on Johnny update us please
Poor lol ole Johnny is living it up in a beach house out on the west end, I dont think he has anything on his mind except fish right now!!

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Old 06-19-2017, 04:38 PM   #87
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93L is being sheared in the upper levels, shear is gonna have to back off if this thing has a chance of wrapping up. If all the moisture to the east being sheared off could wrap up and start firing some good convection we could possibly have a real storm on our hands. Conditions just don't look good for this to intensify much more than a very very minimal tropical storm if it actually closes off and gets to that point. The models have all seemed to close in on a pretty decent agreement.

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Old 06-19-2017, 04:39 PM   #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Montec man View Post
Another thing of interest is talk of this thing splitting into two areas of low pressure. If you look closely at the satellite imagery 1369 posted, you can see two vorticies starting to spin up. One over the Yucatan and one in the trough to the North in the GOM. Weird, disorganized system right now.
I was thinking the same thing - you can see some Tangential wind patterns that make this a little tricky to read.
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Old 06-19-2017, 04:49 PM   #89
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Just came across my alerts

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Old 06-19-2017, 04:51 PM   #90
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So Louisiana is gonna get this one?
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Old 06-19-2017, 04:57 PM   #91
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So Louisiana is gonna get this one?


Not sure the fat lady is singing just yet


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Old 06-19-2017, 04:57 PM   #92
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So Louisiana is gonna get this one?
Its two days out, no reason to argue with the NHC cone. Yes it could slide a little to the east or little to the west but I would be willing to bet they're pretty close to being on the money. It's tropical weather, A Lot Like a Woman, you can't predict what it's going to do until it does it.

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Old 06-19-2017, 05:03 PM   #93
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We are going to be praying for rain if this system goes to the east of us. It's going to drag a hot southwest wind over us for 7 to 10 days. Going to be miserable!
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Old 06-19-2017, 05:25 PM   #94
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So Louisiana is gonna get this one?
Nothing is certain with these things. The GFS shifted west so the forecast cone will likely be moving around some. NHC even stated it isn't a high confidence forecast in the short term.

I do think though as said earlier, no matter where this goes for a "landfall", someone is going to get a ton of rainfall.. that still does look like it will be Louisiana. Just my opinion.

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Old 06-19-2017, 07:36 PM   #95
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Default Reckon This One Will Sniff The Gulf?

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Old 06-19-2017, 08:04 PM   #96
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Bret is hitting my jobsite now, Trinidad hasn't had a storm in almost 10 years, this is about my luck. I just hope it doesn't end up knocking on our front door in 10 days.

In the Bahamas on vacation and the other system dropped some rain on us and it's been windier than it should be for vacation.
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Old 06-19-2017, 08:14 PM   #97
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Update I just saw from KHOU.

8PM MONDAY TROPICAL UPDATE:

This is a quick one to point out that at 7PM the center of low pressure was relocated almost 60 miles southwest of the 4PM position. For perspective, that's about the distance between Houston and El Campo. As a result, the forecast cone may shift west and deeper into Texas. Again, this new kind of forecast for a system not yet developed is subject to greater uncertainty than what we're used to seeing. Watch Tim Heller on TV at 10PM to see how the track is adjusted (if at all) to account for this center relocation. I'll keep you aware and informed on TV during the morning news from 4:30-9AM. Goodnight.
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Old 06-19-2017, 08:26 PM   #98
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The models have definitely shifted west more in line with the Euro. It has been more consistent day in and day out.

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Old 06-19-2017, 08:57 PM   #99
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You can see a weakness over TX so i wouldnt rule out a shift to the west overnight and into tomorrow.

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Old 06-19-2017, 11:14 PM   #100
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Very interesting. So when are we expecting landfall (wherever it goes)?
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