2018-19 Gulf Coast Hurricane Thread

[SaltwaterSlick]

First invest of the season designated today with the broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean. Looks like it should track into the Southern gulf later this week, where it will be met with a lot of shear. At this time, doesn't appear to be any threat to TX, but Florida will continue to get a lot moisture/ran sent it's way, and possibly even a tropical storm. Gulf looks pretty hostile though.

Figured this is a good reminder that the season is upon us, and always a good idea to be prepared with plans at a minimum should something look to threaten our area.

Here is to a quiet GOM season!

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You think this system will pass out of the Gulf by Sunday? We're supposed to head out to the Chandeleur's Sunday night for 3 days of fishing beginning on Monday the 28th...

[sqiggy]

You think this system will pass out of the Gulf by Sunday?

Won't even sniff the gulf!!!

[Quackerbox]

Won't even sniff the gulf!!!

That's what I keep praying for

[Tshelly]

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[bauce302]

Won't even sniff the gulf!!!

Dont you dare try and steal my thunder!!!!!!!!!!


uhuhuhhhhhhuhhhhhhh (clearing my throat)
It wont even sniff the Gulf.

[ccbluewater]

You think this system will pass out of the Gulf by Sunday? We're supposed to head out to the Chandeleur's Sunday night for 3 days of fishing beginning on Monday the 28th...

Current GFS & Euro both show this event(what ever it turns out to be) to be on Sunday most likely.. GFS is Extreme SE Gulf into Florida on Sunday, and Euro is further west, but has shifted East over night.

With the amount of shear forecast in the gulf, and the current looks of things, all of the convection is being sheared off to the E/NE away from where the center is being shown. Meaning, there probably wont be much rain/wind West of the center, and you will probably be fine. Especially with the GFS solution.. We're likely talking a low end TS at best in any regard.

[SaltwaterSlick]

Thank you sir. Capt. Bobby is thinkin' the same thing. Only thing he's concerned is IF it stalls, it could shift west and right over where we plan to be. My thinking is that all the "shear" should not let that happen...

[Quackerbox]

Current GFS & Euro both show this event(what ever it turns out to be) to be on Sunday most likely.. GFS is Extreme SE Gulf into Florida on Sunday, and Euro is further west, but has shifted East over night.

With the amount of shear forecast in the gulf, and the current looks of things, all of the convection is being sheared off to the E/NE away from where the center is being shown. Meaning, there probably wont be much rain/wind West of the center, and you will probably be fine. Especially with the GFS solution.. We're likely talking a low end TS at best in any regard.

What about this 'loop current' they keep talking about in the gulf. I assume the models take that in to account if its in play at all. Ive never heard about it till recently and was afraid it might try and pull the weather to us.

Like Saltwater Ive been watching this closely the last few days

And thanks for the updates!

[El General]

What about this 'loop current' they keep talking about in the gulf. I assume the models take that in to account if its in play at all. Ive never heard about it till recently and was afraid it might try and pull the weather to us.

Like Saltwater Ive been watching this closely the last few days

And thanks for the updates!

The loop current has been there forever, so I'm sure it is accounted for.

[SaltwaterSlick]

Hey CC, the late runs still got this thing shifting east? ...sure hope so. Looking at it on the TV tonight, it looks like all that shear is indeed pushing on it pretty good... If that high in the Atlantic would shift east, this thing would take a hard right...
Any update would be appreciated.
Thx.

[Quackerbox]

Hey CC, the late runs still got this thing shifting east? ...sure hope so. Looking at it on the TV tonight, it looks like all that shear is indeed pushing on it pretty good... If that high in the Atlantic would shift east, this thing would take a hard right...
Any update would be appreciated.
Thx.

What I just watched had 2 of 3 pulling it NE. The third was due north and still east of the islands.

Best quote was 'it's still very disorganized and more of a rain storm than a depression'

[ccbluewater]

Slick,
Unfortunately, I don't think the models look great for your upcoming trip. Euro is slower than what it was showing yesterday, and puts a HUGE swath of rain from NOLA to the Big Bend of Florida. GFS Is still showing a more eastern solution, but it seems to be suspect as even the Weather services are adding notes that it doesn't seem right.

Lots can change as this progresses and the models get a better grip on it. This isn't even anything yet other than a disorganized area of storms. Come Friday as it approaches/enters the gulf is when it has a chance to develop, and maybe the trends favor in your direction!

[Quackerbox]

yeah, I don't like that model AT ALL

[rut-ro]

Dang you weather

[SaltwaterSlick]

Yea, let's not use that one!