Tropical Storm Irma - now Hurricane Irma

[Johnny]

This will be the place for all TBH'ers to wish this storm completely away from us. Hopefully Irma does not even come close to sniffing the Gulf.

With that said, the trend as of now is showing a stout ridge keeping Irma on a west or even west southwest heading which I do not like. Here is the NHC's cone below.

The Euro model for 5 or so consecutive runs has kept Irma on this track. The latest run has Irma plowing into Hispaniola then Cuba on what looks to be on it's way into the Gulf of Mexico.(see image below)



The past couple of days the GFS model has had Irma going out to sea but little by little it is creeping Irma more west (more ridging, ULL less influence). The latest GFS model run now has Irma making landfall as a major hurricane along the east coast....trending to the west. (see image below)

Obviously way to early to know what Irma has on her mind but with the latest trends it is worth mentioning so we can monitor the situation.



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[BrandonA]

This ***** needs to stay away.

[b.a.saha]

Hopefully the front next week will give it a push as well once the high settles in behind it.

[GarGuy]

I dont like Irma at all. One question though.... How much did Harvey cool the waters of the gulf and will that not help if she comes in?

[Dusty Britches]

My parents are leaving on a cruise on Saturday from Galveston and going to Jamaica then to Cozumel. When do you think she will skip into the Jamaican waters?

[Antlers86]

I dont like Irma at all. One question though.... How much did Harvey cool the waters of the gulf and will that not help if she comes in?

Interesting and very good question! Following

[FLASH_OUTDOORS]

Watching this and praying it stays away......


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[ccbluewater]

I dont like Irma at all. One question though.... How much did Harvey cool the waters of the gulf and will that not help if she comes in?

For the most part, not very much. There is an area in the Western Gulf that is cooler though where Harvey moved past. I'll try and get some imagery. It takes these storms to really park themselves over water to induce much upwelling of cooler waters. Harvey didn't park until he got over land.

Irma is certainly one to watch, especially for any interest in the Leeward Islands. They could be looking at a Major Hurricane event early next week if the forecast trends verify. Let's hope we get a big trough of some sort to plow through next week, and give Irma an escape route out to sea before impacting the US.



Edit.. Added Sea Surface Temp imagery. There is an area of lower SST near the TX Coast but look at the rest of the Gulf and Caribbean..

[brrdnk]

Hopefully this will be a recurve fish and nobody has to deal with it.

[FlightCancelled]

they are warmed back up couple of days of sun and gulf is back to temp. but the river run off will keep things cool close to land so hopefully doesn't intensify like Harvey did so close to land fall

[Etxbuckman]

**** this. I'm not even going to give this ***** another thought. Tired of it already.

[Johnny Dangerr]

Isn't there already a tropical little something in the G0M???

[TallTexan]

Isn't there already a tropical little something in the G0M???

I've heard something about this

[ccbluewater]

Already on the verge of being a Major, and the entire rest of the forecast from NHC is major from here on out. Pretty crazy. Small but powerful storm.

Still a LONG ways from here though. Likely, any POTENTIAL US impacts are 10-14 days away.

[Skinny]

I just read Irma is now a Cat2. Skipped right on over Cat1.


Skinny