Reckon This One Will Sniff The Gulf?

[TexasBob]

So Louisiana is gonna get this one?

Not sure the fat lady is singing just yet


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[Bonesplitter]

So Louisiana is gonna get this one?

Its two days out, no reason to argue with the NHC cone. Yes it could slide a little to the east or little to the west but I would be willing to bet they're pretty close to being on the money. It's tropical weather, A Lot Like a Woman, you can't predict what it's going to do until it does it.

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[RMW]

We are going to be praying for rain if this system goes to the east of us. It's going to drag a hot southwest wind over us for 7 to 10 days. Going to be miserable!

[ccbluewater]

So Louisiana is gonna get this one?

Nothing is certain with these things. The GFS shifted west so the forecast cone will likely be moving around some. NHC even stated it isn't a high confidence forecast in the short term.

I do think though as said earlier, no matter where this goes for a "landfall", someone is going to get a ton of rainfall.. that still does look like it will be Louisiana. Just my opinion.

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[RJK70]

Reckon This One Will Sniff The Gulf?

S

[JES]

Bret is hitting my jobsite now, Trinidad hasn't had a storm in almost 10 years, this is about my luck. I just hope it doesn't end up knocking on our front door in 10 days.

In the Bahamas on vacation and the other system dropped some rain on us and it's been windier than it should be for vacation.

[BrandonH]

Update I just saw from KHOU.

8PM MONDAY TROPICAL UPDATE:

This is a quick one to point out that at 7PM the center of low pressure was relocated almost 60 miles southwest of the 4PM position. For perspective, that's about the distance between Houston and El Campo. As a result, the forecast cone may shift west and deeper into Texas. Again, this new kind of forecast for a system not yet developed is subject to greater uncertainty than what we're used to seeing. Watch Tim Heller on TV at 10PM to see how the track is adjusted (if at all) to account for this center relocation. I'll keep you aware and informed on TV during the morning news from 4:30-9AM. Goodnight.

[Bonesplitter]

The models have definitely shifted west more in line with the Euro. It has been more consistent day in and day out.

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[Bonesplitter]

You can see a weakness over TX so i wouldnt rule out a shift to the west overnight and into tomorrow.

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[texasdeerhunter]

Very interesting. So when are we expecting landfall (wherever it goes)?

[TexasBob]

Very interesting. So when are we expecting landfall (wherever it goes)?

The NHC has posted warnings so conditions expected within 24 hours for coastal Louisiana at the moment. Technical landfall Thursday morning by their forecast.


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[Traildust]

LA/Mississippi state line landfall

[ccbluewater]

LA/Mississippi state line landfall

Almost all of the models are falling in line with a western track.. the NHC shifted west to the TX/LA line, I don't think they are done. EURO continuing to show Galveston(2 runs in a row). More rain being shown for the Houston area now too with all of this from multiple models since yesterday afternoon.


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[Pineywoods]

Seems like some models have it shifting more west in the last couple of hours.



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[TexasBob]

So NHC kept a state line landfall. Eric Berger is holding to that and minimal Houston impact with the caveat of update later. You guys sold on that solution?


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