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Old 01-06-2015, 06:04 PM   #701
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Originally Posted by bdog14 View Post
Back of the napkin calculations:

COSTS: Leasing @ $1000/ac and spending $7.5mm per well = $7.6mm per well -based on 100 acre spacings.

REVENUE: If the estimated ultimate recovery of 300k bbl/well @ $48 oil = $14.4 mm revenue per well

LESS: 25% to royalty owners = $10.8mm per well

LESS: Original costs of $7.6mm = $3.2mm over the well's entire life

This leaves very little margin for error/dry holes/mechanical/title issues. Not to mention you have to factor in the time value of money after the flush production period slows down.

Basically, it doesn't work at this price.

Who knows how long this game of chicken goes on for...we need some good ol' fashioned collusion!!!
Finally some numbers and cents. Risk isn't worth the reward. I need to study the balance sheets of banks with a lot of exposure to oil production. Seemingly safe debt is going to turn to junk bond status. I'm sure most of the money has already been made on that trade (shorting bonds and stocks of companies with a lot of exposure to oil and gas debt) but I'm sure there still some money on the table.

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Old 01-06-2015, 06:22 PM   #702
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My company laid off 500 yesterday. I was one of them.
Dangit man! Hope you find something soon
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Old 01-06-2015, 06:46 PM   #703
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Originally Posted by duckmanep View Post
you believe everything you here on NBC nightly news?
No it's all a web of lies. I guess the market tanking is also a lie? Oh, if you are going to pop off learn to use the correct word to use. It hear not here. Smh

Last edited by oktx; 01-06-2015 at 06:53 PM..
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Old 01-06-2015, 07:36 PM   #704
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Originally Posted by jpowledge View Post
I've been seeing lots of work over rigs in older wells which is typical during slow downs.
that's why it's good to be in production right now. I know still ain't 100%safe but it helps to ease the mind a lil bit
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Old 01-06-2015, 07:39 PM   #705
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Originally Posted by txoutdoorsman24 View Post
that's why it's good to be in production right now. I know still ain't 100%safe but it helps to ease the mind a lil bit

I'm in refining and to my surprise, we can't sell gasoline. Diesel is moving at the dock, but our gasoline tanks are filling up.

Does look like a good secure future though. We don't rely on oil price near as much.
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Old 01-06-2015, 07:41 PM   #706
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Originally Posted by oktx View Post
No it's all a web of lies. I guess the market tanking is also a lie? Oh, if you are going to pop off learn to use the correct word to use. It hear not here. Smh
Thanks for correcting my grammar mistake with 2 of your own.
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:28 PM   #707
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I got the axe today.. Thankfully I had a good interview this morning. We will see what happens. Just remember y'all, if God brought you to it, he WILL bring you through it!
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:34 PM   #708
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Hope it works out haas. My company hasn't laid anyone off yet but we have lost a few rigs and now we're doing rotations to keep everyone working. Hope this doesn't get too worse!
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:42 PM   #709
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I have the feeling this chart is fairly accurate.
Wood Mac is a reliable, consistent source for data.
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Old 01-07-2015, 12:00 AM   #710
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We do have a lot of natural gas, but...as companies hault production of oil then the gas ng prices should rise. We just started winter that so far hasn't been very warm. It may take a few months but we will start eating up our reserves.
Our ng has been a by product of the oil we produce. When we slow production of oil we also slow production of ng therefore the price should go up. Oil companies will start drilling again because all of the sudden oil becomes by product of ng and the cost of oil production is offset by the ng prices.

I read an article yesterday saying that our larger companies like eog and anadarko have hedged their funds anticipating opecs move to dump oil on the market. They are prepared for the long-term oil prices to stay low. If that's the case we will suffer short term but ng prices will soon rise. Opec has no position on ng that they can dump a billion mcf ng to drive prices down so I believe we have the upper hand. Basically our larger oil companies are calling opec's bluff because they prepared themselves for this.
Jmo!
Anyone on TBH work for Cheniere? Maybe we can export our way out of the NG glut.

As bad as it may be in the oil patch, just be glad you're not in the coal business.
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Old 01-07-2015, 12:57 AM   #711
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Originally Posted by oktx View Post
NBC nightly news just said the falling oil prices are starting to damage the US economy. Where are the guys on here that said it would only help?

I'm one. It hasn't hurt the economy as a whole. Has it hurt the energy and oils sector? Absolutely. I don't think anyone thought different though. I stand by my educated guess that it won't hurt the US economy as a whole with the one caveat of the bonds being held that backed US oil exploration and production. At some point those bonds are going to be called sooner rather then later and you are going to see some institution go belly up. How many and how big of an impact is hard if not impossible to say. You don't know what price(oil price) they were bought at and backed up on so it is hard to tell. They are all different and held by all kinds so it is much like the mortgage bust we just went through. Really don't know until it is over.

There is a hiccup related to the low oil prices coming at some point and how big of one is hard to tell. It will cause a correction but it will not or should not cause a recession. History has proven low oil prices are good for the US economy.
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Old 01-07-2015, 07:19 AM   #712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasBear View Post
My company laid off 500 yesterday. I was one of them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by haas0311 View Post
I got the axe today.. Thankfully I had a good interview this morning. We will see what happens. Just remember y'all, if God brought you to it, he WILL bring you through it!
Would you guys and any others that get laid off share what company you worked for? For me, it would be helpful in mentally determining the depth of this fallout of oil. It's definitely not to "get back" at said companies in any way.
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Old 01-07-2015, 07:23 AM   #713
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I got the axe today.. Thankfully I had a good interview this morning. We will see what happens. Just remember y'all, if God brought you to it, he WILL bring you through it!
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Old 01-07-2015, 07:26 AM   #714
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Originally Posted by oktx View Post
Oh, if you are going to pop off learn to use the correct word to use. It hear not here. Smh
Mr Webster, it's "It's" not "It"....just sayin....
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Old 01-07-2015, 08:13 AM   #715
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Looks like the steel industry is taking a hit as well.

http://247wallst.com/commodities-met...lity-closures/
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Old 01-07-2015, 08:16 AM   #716
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Originally Posted by txjustin View Post
Looks like the steel industry is taking a hit as well.

http://247wallst.com/commodities-met...lity-closures/

Nope. Falling oil prices only have a positive effect on the rest of the economy. Experts right here say so.
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Old 01-07-2015, 09:24 AM   #717
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Originally Posted by txjustin View Post
Looks like the steel industry is taking a hit as well.

http://247wallst.com/commodities-met...lity-closures/
"Altogether the Lorain facility is losing 614 workers and the Houston facility is losing 142, a total of 756. In comparison to the big picture and according to a recent SEC 10-K filing, the company noted that it had approximately 26,000 employees in North America and 12,500 in Europe at the end of 2013."

Last edited by BrianL; 01-07-2015 at 09:37 AM..
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Old 01-07-2015, 09:27 AM   #718
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Originally Posted by BrianL View Post
Altogether the Lorain facility is losing 614 workers and the Houston facility is losing 142, a total of 756. In comparison to the big picture and according to a recent SEC 10-K filing, the company noted that it had approximately 26,000 employees in North America and 12,500 in Europe at the end of 2013.
Close to a 3% reduction in workforce.
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Old 01-07-2015, 09:27 AM   #719
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Originally Posted by BrianL View Post
Altogether the Lorain facility is losing 614 workers and the Houston facility is losing 142, a total of 756. In comparison to the big picture and according to a recent SEC 10-K filing, the company noted that it had approximately 26,000 employees in North America and 12,500 in Europe at the end of 2013.
Frankly I don't care if it's 1% or 100% being laid off. It's just to keep track. I've not given my economic analysis, and won't.
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Old 01-07-2015, 09:36 AM   #720
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Originally Posted by txjustin View Post
Frankly I don't care if it's 1% or 100% being laid off. It's just to keep track. I've not given my economic analysis, and won't.
That was a direct quote from the article, not my add on to the article.

Last edited by BrianL; 01-07-2015 at 09:39 AM..
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Old 01-07-2015, 10:13 AM   #721
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Originally Posted by BrianL View Post
That was a direct quote from the article, not my add on to the article.
I didn't mean it in a snarky way, I am just trying to post relevant info/data in this thread for all the O&G workers.
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Old 01-07-2015, 10:25 AM   #722
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Originally Posted by txjustin View Post
Looks like the steel industry is taking a hit as well.

http://247wallst.com/commodities-met...lity-closures/
No way. Oil and gas doesn't affect the rest of the world.
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Old 01-07-2015, 10:33 AM   #723
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Originally Posted by txjustin View Post
Looks like the steel industry is taking a hit as well.

http://247wallst.com/commodities-met...lity-closures/
The layoffs are taking place in a tubular testing and finishing facility in Houston, Texas and a manufacturing facility in Lorain, Ohio. The tubular products that are produced and tested by these facilities are associated with drilling and construction in the oil-and-gas industry.
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Old 01-07-2015, 10:34 AM   #724
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The layoffs are taking place in a tubular testing and finishing facility in Houston, Texas and a manufacturing facility in Lorain, Ohio. The tubular products that are produced and tested by these facilities are associated with drilling and construction in the oil-and-gas industry.
so they're not really part of the steel industry then?
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Old 01-07-2015, 10:36 AM   #725
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Seems to me that when companies stop drilling the supply will go down.. When the supply goes down the price will go back up and then companies will start drilling again..
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Old 01-07-2015, 10:38 AM   #726
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Mr Webster, it's "It's" not "It"....just sayin....
I have fat fingers and the iphone has small buttons. Mr. Rainbow calf tat.
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Old 01-07-2015, 10:54 AM   #727
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so they're not really part of the steel industry then?
Yes they are, a division of the largest steel company in America. But that particular division is associated with O&G, so obviously they will struggle with low oil prices. Not the steel industry as a whole.
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:23 AM   #728
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Originally Posted by panhandlehunter View Post
Yes they are, a division of the largest steel company in America. But that particular division is associated with O&G, so obviously they will struggle with low oil prices. Not the steel industry as a whole.
disagree.
chem plants & refineries put a lot of projects on hold when oil $ drops.
that adds up to a lot of steel, plates, concrete, pipe and equipment.

you can call that oil and gas, but the peripheral industries are endless.
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:26 AM   #729
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so they're not really part of the steel industry then?
OCTG...similar news coming from Tenaris as well.
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:38 AM   #730
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Originally Posted by Bily Lovec View Post
disagree.
chem plants & refineries put a lot of projects on hold when oil $ drops.
that adds up to a lot of steel, plates, concrete, pipe and equipment.

you can call that oil and gas, but the peripheral industries are endless.
I work in plants, and haven't seen any projects put on hold because of oil prices. Not saying it doesn't happen. When oil prices dropped in 2008-09 I was working in a ConocoPhillips refinery, on a large project. 2015 will be a very busy year for me.

Also, the US steel industry's biggest enemy is China, not low oil prices.

Last edited by panhandlehunter; 01-07-2015 at 12:01 PM..
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:58 AM   #731
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Great advice! But I would say that this should apply to most everybody.
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:59 AM   #732
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especially me...bought a Hoyt Carbon Spyder 30 and only went into the **** store to "look" and "try" a few bows...how many people have those store trips. LOL!
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Old 01-07-2015, 12:16 PM   #733
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Originally Posted by panhandlehunter View Post
I work in plants, and haven't seen any projects put on hold because of oil prices. Not saying it doesn't happen. When oil prices dropped in 2008-09 I was working in a ConocoPhillips refinery, on a large projects. 2015 will be a very busy year for me.

Also, the US steel industry's biggest enemy is China, not low oil prices.
Im saying it does happen.
I work in engineering and design of the plants,
so Im further away from it then you are.

A project you were working on in 08-09 was being developed the previous 3-4-5 years, low oil prices wouldnt effect it.

When a $3 billion project is shelved for a "year" because of low oil prices, you're scrambling to find positions for a couple of hundred people JUST in the office.

When a 30 month backlog suddenly disappears because refineries are huddled up doing only required EPA projects. I guess thats because of high beef prices ?

Where did I say O&G was US Steel's biggest enemy ?
you dont realize how many projects require domestic material only, its not just steel.

60% of jobs in Houston are related to the Energy Sector.
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Old 01-07-2015, 12:43 PM   #734
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Originally Posted by Bily Lovec View Post
Im saying it does happen.
I work in engineering and design of the plants,
so Im further away from it then you are.

A project you were working on in 08-09 was being developed the previous 3-4-5 years, low oil prices wouldnt effect it.

When a $3 billion project is shelved for a "year" because of low oil prices, you're scrambling to find positions for a couple of hundred people JUST in the office.

When a 30 month backlog suddenly disappears because refineries are huddled up doing only required EPA projects. I guess thats because of high beef prices ?

Where did I say O&G was US Steel's biggest enemy ?
you dont realize how many projects require domestic material only, its not just steel.

60% of jobs in Houston are related to the Energy Sector.
I know it can and does happen, I just haven't personally been affected by it, and quite frankly, won't be. I went to school for a little bit to be a designer, but decided it wasn't for me. Lol. I know our area of Texas, and a lot of Texas are tied to the energy sector. And it sucks for those people right now. I don't want to see anybody laid off and out of work. But it's all a part of the game. You just have to hold on and hope for the best.
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Old 01-07-2015, 02:46 PM   #735
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Commodities go up, commodities go down.
When prices of a commodity are high, one industry will thrive, another will suffer.
When prices of a commodity are low, one industry will thrive, another will suffer.

IMO lower oil prices are a symptom of a weakening economy, not the cause.
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Old 01-07-2015, 02:50 PM   #736
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I read up on this thread each day as I find it interesting.

Growing up in Midland and seeing an entire town at the mercy of the market, the only thing I knew about oil was that I didn't want anything to do with it. Felt the same way in college at Tech while I was studying to be a Civil Engineer... as I walked by the Petroleum 100 student capacity auditoriums with only 3 or 4 students in class. Sorta been wondering about that decision watching my PE friends the last decade or so.

But, today, as I saw a convoy of 20 or so Trican Well Service tractor trailer's pulling through town at lunch headed north, I remember why I made that choice.

I can live with $2.50 - $3.00 and would choose that over the impact this downturn's gonna have on many folks I know in the industry. Prayers and good luck to y'all.
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Old 01-07-2015, 02:59 PM   #737
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http://oilpro.com/post/9468/drilling...ading-shale-dr

Here is an article I got emailed...... seems that 60 of H&P flexrigs have had their drilling contracts canceled over the past 30 days. Doesn't say what areas of the country though
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Old 01-07-2015, 03:26 PM   #738
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anyone else feel like another major war is on the horizon?
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Old 01-07-2015, 03:40 PM   #739
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I keep hearing this issue is way worse for Russia...I understand their economy is different but can someone give the basic 101 as to how much more painful & some reasons as to why??
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Old 01-07-2015, 03:46 PM   #740
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I keep hearing this issue is way worse for Russia...I understand their economy is different but can someone give the basic 101 as to how much more painful & some reasons as to why??
Our oil industry is privately owned. The other countries are state owned, their governments rely on the oil money.
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Old 01-07-2015, 03:49 PM   #741
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Oil in most countries are nationally owned, therefore it is a major source, if not the only source for revenue.

Is US the only privately owned oil?
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Old 01-07-2015, 03:52 PM   #742
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I keep hearing this issue is way worse for Russia...I understand their economy is different but can someone give the basic 101 as to how much more painful & some reasons as to why??
The way I understand from what I've read is that it is the main moneymaker for the entire country because their oil is nationalized and they are a major exporter/supplier to Europe.

I'm just thankful that I listened to the old heads when I first came out here and spent the last couple of years paying off everything I could instead of buying new stuff and I have something to go back to if I get downsized out. Wish more guys would do the same
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Old 01-07-2015, 03:55 PM   #743
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The way I understand from what I've read is that it is the main moneymaker for the entire country because their oil is nationalized and they are a major exporter/supplier to Europe.
Would this be one reason Pemex (Mexico gas & oil) is considering allowing private drilling on their dirt??
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Old 01-07-2015, 03:56 PM   #744
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anyone else feel like another major war is on the horizon?
Putin is telling the world that opec and the US conspired to drive prices down. If the world economy collapse because of this then yes there will be wars.
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Old 01-07-2015, 03:58 PM   #745
firemedic2105
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Originally Posted by Artos View Post
Would this be one reason Pemex (Mexico gas & oil) is considering allowing private drilling on their dirt??
From what an old pusher was telling me a while back, Pemex will flip flop back and forth between private and national every couple of years. I think it has more to do with difficulty getting companies down there to drill when it's nationalized because it's a pretty big headache from what I've been told.
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Old 01-07-2015, 04:04 PM   #746
schmalzy
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Originally Posted by firemedic2105 View Post
From what an old pusher was telling me a while back, Pemex will flip flop back and forth between private and national every couple of years. I think it has more to do with difficulty getting companies down there to drill when it's nationalized because it's a pretty big headache from what I've been told.
They told you right in regards to it being a headache.
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Old 01-07-2015, 04:10 PM   #747
RiverRat1
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Putin is telling the world that opec and the US conspired to drive prices down. If the world economy collapse because of this then yes there will be wars.
And is that not what happened?

Isn't OPECs job mainly to stabilize the price of oil? If so they're not doing very well watching it drop 2-5% every day down from 80 and then say they will not cut back to stop the fall.
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Old 01-07-2015, 04:17 PM   #748
hammer63
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Originally Posted by firemedic2105 View Post
From what an old pusher was telling me a while back, Pemex will flip flop back and forth between private and national every couple of years. I think it has more to do with difficulty getting companies down there to drill when it's nationalized because it's a pretty big headache from what I've been told.
The biggest headache for US companies when dealing with nationalized oil is the trust issue. I worked (engineered) a $40B Joint venture project with a major US company in Venezuela and the major was constantly managing their exposure to loss in the event that the Venezuelan gov't decided to kick the major to the curb.
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Old 01-07-2015, 04:20 PM   #749
100%TtId
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Oil in most countries are nationally owned, therefore it is a major source, if not the only source for revenue.

Is US the only privately owned oil?
No, there are a few others who have private ownership.

And in most of those countries with nationalized oil, the politicians based their budgets on oil exports at $100+/bbl. There will be repercussions globally when places like Venezuela can't export their way to a balanced budget.
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Old 01-07-2015, 04:21 PM   #750
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any investors want to buy some hotels in the Cotulla area with me and turn them into "illegal alien detention centers"....... its amazing they are still building new ones all over
Funny you mention this. The Red McCombs man camp next to prison in Dilley must have gone belly up. Looks the the Govt. took it over or made some kind of deal because they are bringing in doublewide trailers to house all the illegals that came across on Obummers last infusion of democrat voters.
Being told it will house 2400 people. What a deal.
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