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Old 01-06-2015, 08:53 AM   #651
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Originally Posted by KR-oldmexico View Post
How old were you and what were you doing on 2007????????? Do you have a family?????? Do you have a mortgage?????

Please share all your vast knowledge!!
What does age, having a mortgage, and providing for a family have to do with anything he just said? To make an educated comment about the past all you have to do is be a student of the past. I am not putting my $0.02 in about either side of this but believe if your only counter argument is, "How would you know, you are younger than me and do not have as much life experience?!" then you have already lost.
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Old 01-06-2015, 09:14 AM   #652
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What does age, having a mortgage, and providing for a family have to do with anything he just said? To make an educated comment about the past all you have to do is be a student of the past. I am not putting my $0.02 in about either side of this but believe if your only counter argument is, "How would you know, you are younger than me and do not have as much life experience?!" then you have already lost.

Sorry and very good point! Just do a search of all his post. He comes across as very much so know it all on every subject and like to intentionally start debates here IMO! I need to step away and not even get into this. Thanks for pointing this out to me before it even started!
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Old 01-06-2015, 09:17 AM   #653
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Originally Posted by Catarina View Post
any investors want to buy some hotels in the Cotulla area with me and turn them into "illegal alien detention centers"....... its amazing they are still building new ones all over
not actually a bad idea.

it blows my mind every time i drive through kennedy/karnes city and see how many hotels, banks, dry cleaners etc. are there. Its crazy how much stuff is there now. Great for the town ! Sad to see this happening.

Last edited by Breezy; 01-06-2015 at 09:34 AM..
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Old 01-06-2015, 09:26 AM   #654
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It's actually a great idea. If it worked out it would be great money coming from the government. They never seem to go broke LOL
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Old 01-06-2015, 09:28 AM   #655
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Originally Posted by KR-oldmexico View Post
Just do a search of all his post. He comes across as very much so know it all on every subject and like to intentionally start debates here IMO!
AMEN! I always think he has to be an undercover liberal because he lacks alot
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Old 01-06-2015, 10:20 AM   #656
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It's actually a great idea. If it worked out it would be great money coming from the government. They never seem to go broke LOL
You can't go broke when you are already broke!
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Old 01-06-2015, 10:26 AM   #657
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Originally Posted by KR-oldmexico View Post
Sorry and very good point! Just do a search of all his post. He comes across as very much so know it all on every subject and like to intentionally start debates here IMO! I need to step away and not even get into this. Thanks for pointing this out to me before it even started!
Correct, Most of his post do not deserve a response. Shake my head and go on.
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Old 01-06-2015, 10:33 AM   #658
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Wish it would stick around just a little longer, I have student loans I need to payoff starting next year! Lol
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Old 01-06-2015, 10:35 AM   #659
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Originally Posted by KR-oldmexico View Post
Sorry and very good point! Just do a search of all his post. He comes across as very much so know it all on every subject and like to intentionally start debates here IMO! I need to step away and not even get into this. Thanks for pointing this out to me before it even started!
No worries. I am a young guy myself and have the pleasure of fighting the 'too young' issue a lot.

Now, back to the main topic! Oil prices are down to $48.22 right now.
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Old 01-06-2015, 10:37 AM   #660
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I am actually staying busy as of right now.. Fingers crossed it stays that way
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Old 01-06-2015, 10:39 AM   #661
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WTI~48.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102312537
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Old 01-06-2015, 10:40 AM   #662
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Anyone know what the average breakeven is on a barrel in Eagle Ford?
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Old 01-06-2015, 10:41 AM   #663
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Default The decline continues at -3% per day. Serious rate of devaluation.

Already posted but oil taking another hit today:

Light Crude $48.48 -3.20%
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Old 01-06-2015, 10:50 AM   #664
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http://oilprice.com/

$47.97
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Old 01-06-2015, 10:52 AM   #665
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Anyone know what the average breakeven is on a barrel in Eagle Ford?
between $40 and $55 is what I've seen... depending on operator and area.
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:07 AM   #666
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between $40 and $55 is what I've seen... depending on operator and area.
Is that for drilling a new well or for pumping an existing well?
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:20 AM   #667
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Is that for drilling a new well or for pumping an existing well?
new wells. I saw a report that was based on drilling permits. once the infrastructure is in place for a well, the cost to keep it going is greatly reduced.

drilling a well is 3-8 million, fracking/completions is several million, getting pipelines installed is costly, but once that's all done, the cost of the well is just maintenance with production, workover's, etc.

Last edited by kyle1974; 01-06-2015 at 11:23 AM..
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:39 AM   #668
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Is that for drilling a new well or for pumping an existing well?
Interview on the news couple weeks ago, said average production for existing well is $18-$25. Some were as low as $10.
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:51 AM   #669
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not actually a bad idea.

it blows my mind every time i drive through kennedy/karnes city and see how many hotels, banks, dry cleaners etc. are there. Its crazy how much stuff is there now. Great for the town ! Sad to see this happening.
I still smile everytime I drive through Kenedy and see the sign that says folks come for the tourism lol.
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:52 AM   #670
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Originally Posted by kyle1974 View Post
new wells. I saw a report that was based on drilling permits. once the infrastructure is in place for a well, the cost to keep it going is greatly reduced.

drilling a well is 3-8 million, fracking/completions is several million, getting pipelines installed is costly, but once that's all done, the cost of the well is just maintenance with production, workover's, etc.
I've been seeing lots of work over rigs in older wells which is typical during slow downs.
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:54 AM   #671
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I've been seeing lots of work over rigs in older wells which is typical during slow downs.

Roger that! You will start to see a lot more pulling units!!
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Old 01-06-2015, 12:04 PM   #672
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Oil dips into the $47 mark. There are going to be some shake ups. Prices will recover, but the rebound is always slower than the decline, the lag in this will take a while and a lot of acquisitions will happen in 2015.
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Old 01-06-2015, 12:11 PM   #673
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Originally Posted by kyle1974 View Post
between $40 and $55 is what I've seen... depending on operator and area.
I bet it's higher.. We have been hearing lots of talk of laying down rigs even with the big operators. They'll keep only enough to meet lease obligations IMO


The markets have taken a pounding in the last week also

Last edited by bphillips; 01-06-2015 at 12:15 PM..
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Old 01-06-2015, 12:14 PM   #674
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Default Hey Oilfield Guys!!

That's just break even. If it were me, I wouldn't throw the money out there to make $5 a barrel anyway. The eagle ford has a much lower break even than many plays in west texas or the bakken.

The other thing is, those are current break evens. As prices for services go down, the break even goes down.

I do agree that what we'll see is mainly lease holding drilling though. People aren't going to spend the money to barely break even.

Last edited by kyle1974; 01-06-2015 at 12:18 PM..
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Old 01-06-2015, 12:15 PM   #675
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Originally Posted by KR-oldmexico View Post
Roger that! You will start to see a lot more pulling units!!
With the slowdown in new wells and frac crews with nothing to do, you may even see an overall effort to re-frac some wells. It has been done with good returns in production, according to my sources.
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Old 01-06-2015, 12:27 PM   #676
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With the slowdown in new wells and frac crews with nothing to do, you may even see an overall effort to re-frac some wells. It has been done with good returns in production, according to my sources.
Been happening for awhile in the Barnett.
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Old 01-06-2015, 12:28 PM   #677
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Originally Posted by kyle1974 View Post
That's just break even. If it were me, I wouldn't throw the money out there to make $5 a barrel anyway. The eagle ford has a much lower break even than many plays in west texas or the bakken.

The other thing is, those are current break evens. As prices for services go down, the break even goes down.

I do agree that what we'll see is mainly lease holding drilling though. People aren't going to spend the money to barely break even.
This is what I am hoping. Hopefully this will make the Saudi plan backfire on them.
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Old 01-06-2015, 02:55 PM   #678
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Been quoted as low as $40 in the eagle ford. This was from a company man for EOG.
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Old 01-06-2015, 03:05 PM   #679
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Been quoted as low as $40 in the eagle ford. This was from a company man for EOG.
Even the "company men" are guessing like everyone else. Even at $40 break even I doubt $45 is worth running rigs other than the amount needed to meet lease obligations.
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Old 01-06-2015, 03:14 PM   #680
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Default Hey Oilfield Guys!!

When y'all say break even...do you know how many bbls of oil these newly drilled wells are making per day or are you just guessing?

And what type of break even time frame are you putting on these wells???

Last edited by Skinny; 01-06-2015 at 03:17 PM..
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Old 01-06-2015, 03:37 PM   #681
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When y'all say break even...do you know how many bbls of oil these newly drilled wells are making per day or are you just guessing?

And what type of break even time frame are you putting on these wells???
that's why there is a range in the break even values, as it's dependent on area and operator. IP's in the eagle ford range from 500 to 5,000 (or more) bbls a day, and days to drill range from 5 to 30... every well is different, so it's just an rolling average.

some wells have a 6500 ft TVD, other wells have an 11,000' TVD... some are two strings of casing, some are three... There is one company out here that has had their acreage long before the eagle ford ever kicked off, and their break even is probably around $35, but does that mean they want to sell it for that, when it will likely come back down the road?

lots of questions and lot of speculation right now...

Last edited by kyle1974; 01-06-2015 at 03:40 PM..
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Old 01-06-2015, 03:39 PM   #682
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Its getting real ugly and quick on the drilling end. Companies that claimed to be holding out till the spring to see what is going to happen are now laying rigs down. I sure wish i could find a job on the production side and wash my hands of this drilling end!
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Old 01-06-2015, 03:46 PM   #683
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Its getting real ugly and quick on the drilling end. Companies that claimed to be holding out till the spring to see what is going to happen are now laying rigs down. I sure wish i could find a job on the production side and wash my hands of this drilling end!
Yea I'm not believing a word any company tells me at this point.. Heard all the lies before
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Old 01-06-2015, 03:46 PM   #684
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Here is a chart for breakevens in different US shale plays.

A couple of things to note. 1) Not all parts of the same shale play are the same. 2) These are ESTIMATES.

I have the feeling this chart is fairly accurate.
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Old 01-06-2015, 04:05 PM   #685
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this is the one I was going off, but I was wrong on what I posted... gives a range for the plays. When I first saw this back in November, I remember thinking... "there's still a long way it has to fall"... and now we're lower than that.
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Old 01-06-2015, 04:13 PM   #686
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this is the one I was going off, but I was wrong on what I posted... gives a range for the plays. When I first saw this back in November, I remember thinking... "there's still a long way it has to fall"... and now we're lower than that.
Yep, ours are both fairly similar. Bottomline -- the industry is going to slow down to a glacial pace if oil remains below $50/bbl for an extended period of time.
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Old 01-06-2015, 04:20 PM   #687
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Back of the napkin calculations:

COSTS: Leasing @ $1000/ac and spending $7.5mm per well = $7.6mm per well -based on 100 acre spacings.

REVENUE: If the estimated ultimate recovery of 300k bbl/well @ $48 oil = $14.4 mm revenue per well

LESS: 25% to royalty owners = $10.8mm per well

LESS: Original costs of $7.6mm = $3.2mm over the well's entire life

This leaves very little margin for error/dry holes/mechanical/title issues. Not to mention you have to factor in the time value of money after the flush production period slows down.

Basically, it doesn't work at this price.

Who knows how long this game of chicken goes on for...we need some good ol' fashioned collusion!!!
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Old 01-06-2015, 04:26 PM   #688
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Originally Posted by willwork04 View Post
Yep, ours are both fairly similar. Bottomline -- the industry is going to slow down to a glacial pace if oil remains below $50/bbl for an extended period of time.
Maybe?? Traditionally when oil prices drop then natural gas prices rise. Natural gas was at 2.88 this morning but if it starts climbing back to that $7 to $8 range then drilling will pick up for gas.
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Old 01-06-2015, 04:32 PM   #689
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Maybe?? Traditionally when oil prices drop then natural gas prices rise. Natural gas was at 2.88 this morning but if it starts climbing back to that $7 to $8 range then drilling will pick up for gas.
That could happen, but I personally don't see it. There is a huge glut of natural gas right now. But who knows! I definitely hope you are right....
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Old 01-06-2015, 04:32 PM   #690
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With the slowdown in new wells and frac crews with nothing to do, you may even see an overall effort to re-frac some wells. It has been done with good returns in production, according to my sources.
This is exactly what we are seeing right now. The company I work for monitors fracing and we are slowing down on the monitoring of new wells and picking up contracts to monitor the refrac of wells. We will weather the storm for now but who knows if the price continues to drop.
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Old 01-06-2015, 04:55 PM   #691
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdog14 View Post
Back of the napkin calculations:

COSTS: Leasing @ $1000/ac and spending $7.5mm per well = $7.6mm per well -based on 100 acre spacings.

REVENUE: If the estimated ultimate recovery of 300k bbl/well @ $48 oil = $14.4 mm revenue per well

LESS: 25% to royalty owners = $10.8mm per well

LESS: Original costs of $7.6mm = $3.2mm over the well's entire life

This leaves very little margin for error/dry holes/mechanical/title issues. Not to mention you have to factor in the time value of money after the flush production period slows down.

Basically, it doesn't work at this price.

Who knows how long this game of chicken goes on for...we need some good ol' fashioned collusion!!!
As stated above, the play is not equal in all areas or with all operators. Operators in the "sweet spot" claiming 500MBOE EUR's have the better chance of maintaining new drilling operations and from what I've seen, those EUR's may not be too far from reality. I'm seeing 200-300MBOE in just the first 2 years on some. Even at $48/bbl a lot of those wells will pay out in 6 months. As for the leasing monies, they have already been spent so that cost doesn't affect future drilling. Operators like EOG in Gonzales and Karnes counties have their D&C below $6M now and infill drilling will be even cheaper with production equipment and pipelines to sales/gathering already in place. Unfortunately for the industry as a whole, not all wells will be economic at the current price.
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:05 PM   #692
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Originally Posted by kyle1974 View Post
this is the one I was going off, but I was wrong on what I posted... gives a range for the plays. When I first saw this back in November, I remember thinking... "there's still a long way it has to fall"... and now we're lower than that.
There are always huge variations in the cost, but I assure you that the break even price is dropping as the service companies are dropping prices fast.....hang on for the ride!
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:21 PM   #693
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My company laid off 500 yesterday. I was one of them.
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:31 PM   #694
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Big winter storm moving into the NE. This may help NG prices.
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:37 PM   #695
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My company laid off 500 yesterday. I was one of them.
That just sucks texasbear. Hope you are able to pick up work pretty quick.
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:40 PM   #696
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My company laid off 500 yesterday. I was one of them.
Sorry to hear of your misfortune. Prayers up for you and your family.
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:42 PM   #697
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NBC nightly news just said the falling oil prices are starting to damage the US economy. Where are the guys on here that said it would only help?
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:46 PM   #698
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NBC nightly news just said the falling oil prices are starting to damage the US economy. Where are the guys on here that said it would only help?
you believe everything you here on NBC nightly news?
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:51 PM   #699
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My company laid off 500 yesterday. I was one of them.
Prayers to you and your family
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:56 PM   #700
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Location: Briscoe Tx
Hunt In: Hemphill Co
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willwork04 View Post
That could happen, but I personally don't see it. There is a huge glut of natural gas right now. But who knows! I definitely hope you are right....






Quote:
Originally Posted by oktx View Post
Big winter storm moving into the NE. This may help NG prices.
We do have a lot of natural gas, but...as companies hault production of oil then the gas ng prices should rise. We just started winter that so far hasn't been very warm. It may take a few months but we will start eating up our reserves.
Our ng has been a by product of the oil we produce. When we slow production of oil we also slow production of ng therefore the price should go up. Oil companies will start drilling again because all of the sudden oil becomes by product of ng and the cost of oil production is offset by the ng prices.

I read an article yesterday saying that our larger companies like eog and anadarko have hedged their funds anticipating opecs move to dump oil on the market. They are prepared for the long-term oil prices to stay low. If that's the case we will suffer short term but ng prices will soon rise. Opec has no position on ng that they can dump a billion mcf ng to drive prices down so I believe we have the upper hand. Basically our larger oil companies are calling opec's bluff because they prepared themselves for this.
Jmo!
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