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Old 06-20-2017, 04:58 AM   #101
TexasBob
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Originally Posted by texasdeerhunter View Post
Very interesting. So when are we expecting landfall (wherever it goes)?


The NHC has posted warnings so conditions expected within 24 hours for coastal Louisiana at the moment. Technical landfall Thursday morning by their forecast.


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Old 06-20-2017, 06:22 AM   #102
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LA/Mississippi state line landfall
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Old 06-20-2017, 06:44 AM   #103
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LA/Mississippi state line landfall
Almost all of the models are falling in line with a western track.. the NHC shifted west to the TX/LA line, I don't think they are done. EURO continuing to show Galveston(2 runs in a row). More rain being shown for the Houston area now too with all of this from multiple models since yesterday afternoon.


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Old 06-20-2017, 07:08 AM   #104
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Seems like some models have it shifting more west in the last couple of hours.



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Last edited by Pineywoods; 06-20-2017 at 07:14 AM.
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Old 06-20-2017, 08:00 AM   #105
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So NHC kept a state line landfall. Eric Berger is holding to that and minimal Houston impact with the caveat of update later. You guys sold on that solution?


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Old 06-20-2017, 08:08 AM   #106
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So NHC kept a state line landfall. Eric Berger is holding to that and minimal Houston impact with the caveat of update later. You guys sold on that solution?


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I was just watching a video from the Weather Channel, the lady on there showed a prediction graphic of the eye moving in West of Galveston supposedly dumping 3-4 " around Houston. But then the very next video, they say east of Houston. Nobody really knows anything. Its a big guess
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Old 06-20-2017, 08:43 AM   #107
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Im sticking with the Euro model, no reason i can see that it is wrong. I still say a more westward shift is coming which will put it landfalling somewhere near Matagorda. The ridge buckled, the Euro picked up on that several days ago. Either way, be prepared.

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Old 06-20-2017, 08:54 AM   #108
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Im sticking with the Euro model, no reason i can see that it is wrong. I still say a more westward shift is coming which will put it landfalling somewhere near Matagorda. The ridge buckled, the Euro picked up on that several days ago. Either way, be prepared.

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Wow! I almost just clicked off the thread when I saw the landfall on the Ms/La line. I scroll a little further down and now Im in the eye!
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Old 06-20-2017, 09:09 AM   #109
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Wow! I almost just clicked off the thread when I saw the landfall on the Ms/La line. I scroll a little further down and now Im in the eye!
Well, nothing set in stone, just my thought. Its really gonna have to close off and get going soon to get a real grasp on location.

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Old 06-20-2017, 09:33 AM   #110
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I agree with Bonesplitter on this. That ridge was the only thing prevented Westward movement and it's really retreating. There were times last night I could start to see WNW movement.
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Old 06-20-2017, 09:43 AM   #111
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Latest update

Quote:
Originally Posted by NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday,
but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears
to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy
42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer
to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being
maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system
could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later
today.

The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on
continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is
forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical
shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off
the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the
there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a
mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a
better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered
generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts
with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more
north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve
around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows
the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by
48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the
mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across
the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central
Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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Old 06-20-2017, 09:48 AM   #112
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Quote:
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Latest update
The FUBAR meter is dropping to about 21%
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Old 06-20-2017, 10:21 AM   #113
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Work sent this model out today from NWS Lake Charles.
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Old 06-20-2017, 11:01 AM   #114
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I've been watching these two storms pretty close myself, sure looks like our hay pastures, food plots, and gardens are going to get the rain they are in desperate need of.

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Old 06-20-2017, 12:06 PM   #115
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Tropical storm watch has been issued for Harris county. Advisory basically uses 59 as the line, impacts along there and east.


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Old 06-20-2017, 12:16 PM   #116
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Assuming a landfall west of Gtown what can be expected in terms of impact. I know we won't have big winds but can we predict a tidal surge of some sort. I have a Bay home on the Westend of the island and I am out of town not back to till Thursday night. I can have people get down there and tie off the boat and move all patio furniture inside but I am not prepared for 4 foot surge that flood the garage.
Is this a possibility?
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Old 06-20-2017, 12:43 PM   #117
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Cindy
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Old 06-20-2017, 12:45 PM   #118
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..and we now have Tropical Storm Cindy. Have been noticing that it didnt appear to be moving this morning, and they note that it is Stationary. Could possibly have a window upcoming to strengthen if it can tuck under the area of lower shear from the Upper Level Low that is retreating to the SW.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...2
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Old 06-20-2017, 12:57 PM   #119
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raleigh View Post
Assuming a landfall west of Gtown what can be expected in terms of impact. I know we won't have big winds but can we predict a tidal surge of some sort. I have a Bay home on the Westend of the island and I am out of town not back to till Thursday night. I can have people get down there and tie off the boat and move all patio furniture inside but I am not prepared for 4 foot surge that flood the garage.
Is this a possibility?
NHS says the Storm Surge: "inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible along the coast in portions of the tropical storm warning area."

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Old 06-20-2017, 01:04 PM   #120
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Latest Euro(running now) continues to show Galveston Thursday morning.. Strongest run for the Euro too so far(992mb).

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Old 06-20-2017, 02:00 PM   #121
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If you are heading to the Fl. Panhandle .

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/201...river_home_pop

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/201...art_river_home
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Old 06-20-2017, 02:05 PM   #122
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Our guide in Venice just called and said we need to reschedule, we were going Friday and Saturday.
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Old 06-20-2017, 02:05 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by 16ncs View Post
Surfs up!


Hope they get a solid idea of landfall pretty quick, customers are ordering product like it ain't no big deal and I don't want any trucks caught in the path of this thing. Got 3 trucks in Florida, told them to keep an eye on it so they don't come driving back into it.
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Old 06-20-2017, 02:30 PM   #124
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Our guide in Venice just called and said we need to reschedule, we were going Friday and Saturday.
So far we are a go in Theriot but our trip is for specs and reds on Sat and Sunday. We go to Venice on Monday.
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Old 06-20-2017, 02:38 PM   #125
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Cindy looking pretty crappy right now on Satellite dealing with the shear.
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Old 06-20-2017, 02:45 PM   #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bklem View Post
So far we are a go in Theriot but our trip is for specs and reds on Sat and Sunday. We go to Venice on Monday.


We are going Sunday
I would suspect any tropical activity will be long gone by then. Just the local showers that are expected
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Old 06-20-2017, 02:49 PM   #127
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Quote:
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So far we are a go in Theriot but our trip is for specs and reds on Sat and Sunday. We go to Venice on Monday.
Good luck, Stafford told me to say hi to you.
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:01 PM   #128
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Quick map of precipitation totals, ballpark of what to expect, not only is shear keeping developement down but massive amounts of dry air is being sucked into its core. Very unorganized storm.
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:03 PM   #129
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bring it
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:04 PM   #130
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Quote:
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Good luck, Stafford told me to say hi to you.
I forgot you knew Brett. Tell him hello for me.
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:05 PM   #131
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We are going Sunday
I would suspect any tropical activity will be long gone by then. Just the local showers that are expected
Agree
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:08 PM   #132
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.
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:08 PM   #133
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Cindy sucks!
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:10 PM   #134
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.
Is that really live or are we in a time warp?
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:13 PM   #135
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Is that really live or are we in a time warp?
It was live at the time it was snap shotted
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:14 PM   #136
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:15 PM   #137
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Quote:
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It was live at the time it was snap shotted
Sorry...forgot the
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:28 PM   #138
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Guess I'll be prepping some items around the house this evening so they don't grow wings and fly.

Trampoline, chairs, tables, hummingbird feeders, trash cans, etc.
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:39 PM   #139
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Guess I'll be prepping some items around the house this evening so they don't grow wings and fly.

Trampoline, chairs, tables, hummingbird feeders, trash cans, etc.
I really don't think we'll see any big winds around here. It seems pretty weak and disorganized from what I can see. I just hope to get a couple inches of rain out of it... 5-6" would be even better. It looks like most of the rain is well to the east of this system or am I wrong?
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Old 06-20-2017, 03:44 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by Pineywoods View Post
I really don't think we'll see any big winds around here. It seems pretty weak and disorganized from what I can see. I just hope to get a couple inches of rain out of it... 5-6" would be even better. It looks like most of the rain is well to the east of this system or am I wrong?
You are correct, most of the precip is off the NE quadrant, however, the Houston area to the east could see some gusty winds to 50-60 mph in heavier bands but its nothing to get too concerned about that I can see. Im definitely shutting down my sprinklers! Bout as far as my storm prep goes!

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Old 06-20-2017, 04:51 PM   #141
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Supposed to be in Lake Charles Thursday thru Saturday...looks like we should stay home?


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Old 06-20-2017, 04:52 PM   #142
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C-R-A-P. Bet I get stuck in Newark airport tomorrow night.


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Old 06-20-2017, 05:55 PM   #143
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So what I don't get is if the storm makes landfall early Thursday (like 1:00am I think), and it is supposed to be well into Tenneseee by Friday, why does Lufkin still have 80-100% chance of rain Friday and Saturday. That puts a kink in my plans this weekend
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Old 06-20-2017, 06:00 PM   #144
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What's the opinions on where this next storm will end up? I know it's still way down there but do yall think it keeps heading westerly or eventually gets drawn northward past the Yucatan and into the gulf?
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Old 06-20-2017, 06:54 PM   #145
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Quote:
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What's the opinions on where this next storm will end up? I know it's still way down there but do yall think it keeps heading westerly or eventually gets drawn northward past the Yucatan and into the gulf?
Looks like former TS Brett is dissipating. Possibility of future developement down the road if the remnants get into more favorable conditions. Until then Im signing off...

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Old 06-20-2017, 08:41 PM   #146
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How is New Orleans looking for Friday? Wife and I fly out at 4 Friday afternoon to NO.


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Old 06-20-2017, 08:48 PM   #147
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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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Old 06-20-2017, 10:27 PM   #148
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I am in Bridge City and as we came home tonight, around 9:15, there were many people filling san****s at the local precinct office. It looks like maybe 4-6" of rain in our area but people around here are preparing for a Hurricane. The media is really sensationalizing this first storm of the season. I heard Jim Cantore was in the Lake Charles/Cameron area today.
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Old 06-20-2017, 10:48 PM   #149
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Guess I gotta make a decision tmrw morning. I'm in Conroe now and supposed to end up in Port Arthur tomorrow late afternoon and then staying back in Winnie. Should I stay or shag it back to the hill country?
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Old 06-20-2017, 11:44 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by Mtltx View Post
Guess I gotta make a decision tmrw morning. I'm in Conroe now and supposed to end up in Port Arthur tomorrow late afternoon and then staying back in Winnie. Should I stay or shag it back to the hill country?


You'll be fine in Winnie. Hell hit me up I'll meet ya for a beer at Al-t's if I'm not stuck at work.
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