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Old 10-16-2018, 11:52 AM   #101
SabreKiller
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Originally Posted by Casey View Post
Is it me or is there a wall of water headed down the Guadalupe right now?

Attachment 929177

The Guadalupe at Shumacher Crossing on TX 39 at Hunt has crested at 18 feet I believe. The Guadalupe in Kerrville was at 20 feet about an hour ago and is expected to crest at about 22 feet. Comfort is looking at at 30' rise total.

More rain is expected this evening with models predicting something developing out west, but no idea where the rain will fall at this time.

I just talked with a hydrologist with the NWS.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:54 AM   #102
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Our place is on the Johnson Fork out of Segovia. The South Llano has forced water up the Johnson Fork. Sounds like we have lost everything. Hopefully our neighbors got out in time. Terrible situation for all involved.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:55 AM   #103
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Some insane high water. Ya'll stay safe!
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:56 AM   #104
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Looking at the forecast for our lease on the Pedernales between Fredericksburg and Kerrville, there's rain in the forecast every day as far out as it goes. Landowner sent video of the Perd this morning. It's WELL out of its banks on our place. I'm sure we've lost one of our feeders and tree stands along the river. All the tanks that were dry or nearly dry last month are all full now. They'll be running over for a while if the forecast for another 10 days of rain holds true.

Prayers up for everybody along the rivers in the Hill Country!
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:58 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by speck1 View Post
Our place is on the Johnson Fork out of Segovia. The South Llano has forced water up the Johnson Fork. Sounds like we have lost everything. Hopefully our neighbors got out in time. Terrible situation for all involved.
So sorry
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:00 PM   #106
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Just saw a video where a bridge in Kingsland collapsed. That's a lot of water!
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:01 PM   #107
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Drove across that 2900 Bridge in Kingsland a lot the last 13 years. That's crazy. My buddies property is right near the bridge, water is close to coming in the house but his Dock and boat house are gone!
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:01 PM   #108
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It is still raining hard between Llano and Kingsland. It has not let up even for a minute since about 3 am Monday morning.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:04 PM   #109
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Drove across that 2900 Bridge in Kingsland a lot the last 13 years. That's crazy. My buddies property is right near the bridge, water is close to coming in the house but his Dock and boat house are gone!
I have a friend that has a house down there too. His boat house is under water!
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:05 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by Casey View Post
Is it me or is there a wall of water headed down the Guadalupe right now?

Attachment 929177
Folks downstream are getting warnings.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:05 PM   #111
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KXAN just reported that LCRA is planning to open at least one floodgate on Lake Travis starting at 12:00. That basically means LCRA expects Travis to go above a manageable flood stage. Travis is rising right now at a rate of approximately 15" per hour. Risen 7 feet since midnight and 4.6 feet since 6:00 this morning. Unbelievable amount of water moving around.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:05 PM   #112
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Just a horrible situation! So many folks will have lost everything... High concentration of TBH family in this area either with homes, leases or both... Gonna be a while recovering from this!! Almost reminds me of our situation on the coast from Harvey last year... it's just happening at a much faster pace... sometimes in minutes instead of days!! Unbelievable what the natural world is capable of!!

I pray for safety and no loss of life as a result of this devastation!
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:07 PM   #113
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Prayers for yall.....
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:10 PM   #114
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This is incredibly tragic!
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:12 PM   #115
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Structure fire in Kingsland that is inaccessible. Terrible situation.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:14 PM   #116
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Just got word from a neighbor that lake lbj is up between 8-10' in the sunrise beach/granite shoals area. Our boathouse is still there but our boat has been washed away. If anyone sees a 23' mastercraft floating by be sure and grab it for me!
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:14 PM   #117
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Originally Posted by Chad_E View Post
KXAN just reported that LCRA is planning to open at least one floodgate on Lake Travis starting at 12:00. That basically means LCRA expects Travis to go above a manageable flood stage. Travis is rising right now at a rate of approximately 15" per hour. Risen 7 feet since midnight and 4.6 feet since 6:00 this morning. Unbelievable amount of water moving around.
I wish they had gotten ahead of it and let a bunch of water out of LBJ yesterday and last night.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:16 PM   #118
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Prayers sent up for all involved.

Rwc
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:16 PM   #119
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Not good.


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Old 10-16-2018, 12:20 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by Sika View Post
I wish they had gotten ahead of it and let a bunch of water out of LBJ yesterday and last night.
LCRA has a history of being a day late and dollar short.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:20 PM   #121
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[QUOTE=Casey;13704033]Is it me or is there a wall of water headed down the Guadalupe right now?




Weather Updated: Oct 16 7:18AM


Issued by the National Weather Service


For Kendall County, Texas


RIVER FLOOD WARNING FROM 7:18AM CDT TUE UNTIL 4:46AM CDT WED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT COMFORT. * UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 6:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.8 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. * MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 30.3 FEET BY LATE THIS MORNING.THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACT...AT 31.0 FEET...NUMEROUS HOMES FLOOD ABOVE CENTER POINT TO NEAR COMFORT. MOST ROADS AND BRIDGES NEAR THE RIVER FLOOD. FLOW APPROACHES HOMES IN THE WESTERN PART OF COMFORT AND ADDITIONAL RUNOFF DOWN CYPRESS CREEK FLOODS THEM. MAJOR LOWLAND FLOODING CUTS LIVESTOCK OFF IN THE FLOOD PLAIN, POTENTIALLY DROWNING THEM. && BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS: BF FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM LOCATION STG STG STG DAY TIME WED THU FRI SAT SUN COMFORT 10 21 18.8 TUE 7 AM
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:20 PM   #122
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My wife is the flood plain administrator for llano county. She said it looks like another large crest is on the way from mason. I’ve never seen the river this big. It’s not looking good.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:21 PM   #123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattjproc View Post
Just got word from a neighbor that lake lbj is up between 8-10' in the sunrise beach/granite shoals area. Our boathouse is still there but our boat has been washed away. If anyone sees a 23' mastercraft floating by be sure and grab it for me!
That's a bummer....
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:21 PM   #124
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Hope everyone in the area can get safe and dry asap.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:22 PM   #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaltwaterSlick View Post
Just a horrible situation! So many folks will have lost everything... High concentration of TBH family in this area either with homes, leases or both... Gonna be a while recovering from this!! Almost reminds me of our situation on the coast from Harvey last year... it's just happening at a much faster pace... sometimes in minutes instead of days!! Unbelievable what the natural world is capable of!!

I pray for safety and no loss of life as a result of this devastation!
I was thinking the same thing Charlie!

Little over a year ago Harvey left my family with very little. I know the hopeless feeling of watching the water rise and the pain afterward! Im praying for these folks with tears in my eyes and pain in my heart!

I'm ready to help if anybody needs it now or in the aftermath! I'm retired now so have the time and am ready to pay back the help i recieved! Please contact me if you know of someone i can help who has been affected!
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:23 PM   #126
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just heard they are opening up two on Travis at noon.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:24 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by BrandonA View Post
LCRA has a history of being a day late and dollar short.
I know, right? They did good last week when the Llano crested at 24 feet. They let a couple feet out of LBJ before the wall of water hit it.
I thought maybe they had learned from past mistakes.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:28 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by Hills of Texas View Post
My wife is the flood plain administrator for llano county. She said it looks like another large crest is on the way from mason. Iíve never seen the river this big. Itís not looking good.
Good Lord! If that is the case then I assume there is even more cause for concern for the Llano River Bridge in Llano over the river. It is already been at the base of that bridge!
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:29 PM   #129
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LCRA says possibly 4 floodgates open at 6p on Travis. Will 4 put water in downtown Austin? Prayers sent for yall
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:29 PM   #130
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Watch the 2nd video, it shows the wall of water coming into Llano.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kvu...=269-602064382


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Last edited by Backwoods101; 10-16-2018 at 12:50 PM.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:30 PM   #131
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Originally Posted by Hills of Texas View Post
My wife is the flood plain administrator for llano county. She said it looks like another large crest is on the way from mason. Iíve never seen the river this big. Itís not looking good.
Itís now up to 31.35í at the 87 bridge SE of Mason and rising fast. So yes, another rise is coming down. It first crested at 5:30 this morning, dropped 7í and is rising again. All the water from James River and Kimble County is making its way down.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:31 PM   #132
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Man, that's one big slug of water headed for Canyon Lake...

Name:  Water.jpg
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Size:  22.0 KB

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Old 10-16-2018, 12:31 PM   #133
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I know, right? They did good last week when the Llano crested at 24 feet. They let a couple feet out of LBJ before the wall of water hit it.
I thought maybe they had learned from past mistakes.
Could you imagine the backlash if LCRA released water and then no flood waters hit and Austin ran short on water?

That's why they have craptons of checks and measures before releasing water.

I agree though it should be pretty obvious that they should have been releasing water early this morning..even at Mansfield.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:32 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by mattjproc View Post
Just got word from a neighbor that lake lbj is up between 8-10' in the sunrise beach/granite shoals area. Our boathouse is still there but our boat has been washed away. If anyone sees a 23' mastercraft floating by be sure and grab it for me!
A friend of mine sent me a pic earlier. There is a boat in his yard.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:32 PM   #135
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LCRA says possibly 4 floodgates open at 6p on Travis. Will 4 put water in downtown Austin? Prayers sent for yall
No. Austin is safe for sure.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:33 PM   #136
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now opening 4 gates on mansfield dam.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:33 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by Still Hunter View Post
Good Lord! If that is the case then I assume there is even more cause for concern for the Llano River Bridge in Llano over the river. It is already been at the base of that bridge!
The gauge Iím looking at shows that it crested in Llano at 7:25 am and has slowly dropped almost 6í since then. Now sitting at 34.05í. With this new water coming down from upstream mixing with all the smaller tributaries still flowing in closer to Llano Iím not sure how much it will affect it. Iím praying it wonít add much to the already terrible situation.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:34 PM   #138
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The bridge is closed here in town and the community is segregated by low water. There’s a vehicle under water next to my house that was rescued before daylight. You can hear the roar of the river at my house. It’s pretty wild.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:34 PM   #139
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Man, that's one big slug of water headed for Canyon Lake...

Attachment 929188

Link
Yep.

Just remember if you see it that the Llano had 6 times that much this morning at 280k+ CFS
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:44 PM   #140
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Our place is on the Johnson Fork out of Segovia. The South Llano has forced water up the Johnson Fork. Sounds like we have lost everything. Hopefully our neighbors got out in time. Terrible situation for all involved.
Sorry for your loss. Praying neighbors got out in time.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:53 PM   #141
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I have followed the flow rate of all the rivers in the hill country for many years, it's part of what I do for a living. I don't think this will end well for Austin. There is just too much water coming into the basin. Even small feeder creeks that rarely see 1,000 cfs on big floods are flowing at 20,000 cfs. The rain has been so wide spread that the entire basin is flooded. Many of the past floods have been big rains in smaller areas. There is still so much water that will have to come through LBJ, Lake Travis and Lake Austin. I don't see how they can manage it with out flooding at least one of those lakes. It will be interesting to see if they decide to flood out one and safe houses on the other two or just let them all come up the same.
This will not end well.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:56 PM   #142
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https://hydromet.lcra.org/
Is the best way to see the volume of water still in the basin. Scroll in and you can see all the feeder streams.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:56 PM   #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jake View Post
I have followed the flow rate of all the rivers in the hill country for many years, it's part of what I do for a living. I don't think this will end well for Austin. There is just too much water coming into the basin. Even small feeder creeks that rarely see 1,000 cfs on big floods are flowing at 20,000 cfs. The rain has been so wide spread that the entire basin is flooded. Many of the past floods have been big rains in smaller areas. There is still so much water that will have to come through LBJ, Lake Travis and Lake Austin. I don't see how they can manage it with out flooding at least one of those lakes. It will be interesting to see if they decide to flood out one and safe houses on the other two or just let them all come up the same.
This will not end well.
This is not very encouraging. The weather forecast is predicting more rain for the next few days.
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Old 10-16-2018, 01:08 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by Atfulldraw View Post
After the flood last time (normal level)






Our river house in llano now





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Sorry to see you guys get flooded at your river house Rod. Prayers sent for you and Courtney. When the water recedes and you start to clean up I could make some time to come help.
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Old 10-16-2018, 01:25 PM   #145
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They are saying LT to rise to 690-695. @ 695 that is only 19ft from the spillway at Mansfield. Any additional rain this week and we will quickly approach the Record Christmas flood of 1991.

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Old 10-16-2018, 01:35 PM   #146
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KVUE news here in Austin has had a reporter at Starcke Dam spillway, they having showing some of the debris going over the spillway. Large boat dock went over several jet skis, kayaks, and just now a large storage shed. Unreal what this flooding is doing.
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Old 10-16-2018, 02:17 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by Mertzon Man View Post
Sorry to see you guys get flooded at your river house Rod. Prayers sent for you and Courtney. When the water recedes and you start to clean up I could make some time to come help.


Same here man. Hate to see it. Harvey messed my mind up of what i saw as unbelievable. Hang in there and please stay safe.


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Old 10-16-2018, 02:36 PM   #148
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https://www.facebook.com/CBSAustin/v...TEyNDg1NTE5MQ/
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Old 10-16-2018, 02:50 PM   #149
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Does anyone know how bad it is where the James River comes in contact with the Llano south of Mason? Probably a stupid question, but I have a buddy that owns an RV park there.
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Old 10-16-2018, 02:52 PM   #150
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wow. prayers sent
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