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Severe Weather Across Texas Tomorrow (5/21)

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    Severe Weather Across Texas Tomorrow (5/21)

    Unfortunately it doesn't look like things will be any better tomorrow. A bigger chunk of Texas will more than likely see some bad weather tomorrow including tornadoes. The moderate risk area outlined below will be the place to watch for violent tornadoes. I thought I would go ahead and throw this out there now instead of waiting till tomorrow.


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    ...AR/SERN OK/NERN AND CENTRAL TX...
    MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL ENSEMBLES/
    SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE OVER PARTS OF AR/OK AND NRN TX
    EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
    FROM SERN AR INTO NERN/NORTH CENTRAL TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOUTH
    OF THE BOUNDARY A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT WITH SURFACE
    DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S...AND WITH ENHANCED DIABATIC
    HEATING ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH PRE-EXISTING
    MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG IS
    EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
    PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...STORM
    INITIATION IS EXPECTED FROM SERN OK/SWRN AR INTO PARTS OF NRN TX
    NEAR THE EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
    DEVELOP SWWD NEAR/AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT INTO CENTRAL
    TX...WITH ALL ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

    ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 20-25 KT...FORECAST
    SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER WITH HEIGHT IN
    RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
    VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW
    SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
    POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE
    BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. ACTIVITY IS
    EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE BY EVENING WITH SEVERAL QLCS/S FORMING
    WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY
    IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY BY 03-6Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
    TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS TO
    STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

    #2
    Thanks for the heads up, Johnny.

    Comment


      #3
      Thoughts on Fort Smith Ark tonight and into Tue?
      Sister n law and brother there til late week.
      Tks

      Comment


        #4
        I was gonna go fill feeders tomorrow until I saw the weather report. Thanks for the heads up!!!

        Comment


          #5
          Does that moderate area include DFW?

          Comment


            #6
            Thanks Johnny

            Comment


              #7
              Thanks!

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by wtx223 View Post
                Thoughts on Fort Smith Ark tonight and into Tue?
                Sister n law and brother there til late week.
                Tks
                Looks like Fort Smith just had a tornado warned storm roll through there just a few few minutes ago.



                Also looks like more coming into behind it so might be a bit rough till 2 to 3am.

                Originally posted by Sippy View Post
                Does that moderate area include DFW?
                DFW looks to be right on the edge of the moderate risk area so I would pretty much include them.

                .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
                SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA
                TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SQUALL LINE MAY ORGANIZE ALONG A
                COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PRODUCE A SWATH OF
                DAMAGING WIND AS IT HEADS EAST AND SOUTHEAST. LARGE HAIL AND
                ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATS IN ANY STORM THAT
                IS SEPARATED FROM THE LINE.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Thanks.
                  Just found out they have been in a storm shelter for last hour or so.
                  Out now. Will be following.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by wtx223 View Post
                    Thoughts on Fort Smith Ark tonight and into Tue?
                    Sister n law and brother there til late week.
                    Tks
                    We have people up there for the Barrel horse futerity (sp) . Said they had all the horses tied inside the indoor areana .

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Looks like Canton is in the Danger zone !

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Thank you sir.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Brett C View Post
                          We have people up there for the Barrel horse futerity (sp) . Said they had all the horses tied inside the indoor areana .
                          That's what my brother and sis n law are there for. Lotta folks and animals.
                          Hope they stay safe. Think tue gonna be rough.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            my eyes will be watching tomorrows weather close.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.


                              Bringing this to the top. Outlook maps at the link dont look to have changed much.

                              Comment

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