We sure need a few fronts to clear the coast and drastically drop the odds for TX. That hasn't happened, so any thoughts on 90L? Too close for comfort and seems to be a pretty wide model spread based on the Storm2k chat. Space City Weather guys did mention it as something to keep an eye on this morning.
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September Tropical Weather
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. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico gradually continue to
become better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Originally posted by Zjesse22 View PostLooks like if it forms it will be heading towards Louisiana
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Just in time for me to be heading to the lease this weekend. I'll be tracking from there I suppose, but likely won't be posting much.
Very good discussion from Jeff Lindner this morning. Very low confidence in any forecast track due to very weak steering, and then a building ridge later in the weekend/early next week. Keep an eye on this one, and always follow the NHC for updates! HWRF Model has performed very well this year.. One to keep an eye on.
Tropical depression or storm likely forming over the southwest Gulf of Mexico
Satellite images overnight show what is likely an organizing tropical system over the extreme southwest Gulf of Mexico just east of the eastern Mexican coast. Deep convection has developed near or west of what has likely been the formation of a surface low pressure center. A USAF mission will investigate this feature later today to determine if a tropical depression or storm has formed.
Most global model guidance continues to develop 90L and moves it very slowly over the southern Gulf of Mexico as a cool front moves into the northern Gulf this weekend helping to trap the system south of the frontal boundary. It appears the trough associated with the front will help to pull 90L toward the NE into the west-central Gulf of Mexico, but not strong enough to pull the system toward the north-central Gulf. 90L then becomes under the influence of the building high pressure behind the front and will potentially turn westward toward the western or northwestern Gulf of Mexico slowly early next week. There are any number of possible track solutions on the table and confidence in any of the solutions is very low given the overall weak steering patterns that will be in place. It is possible that 90L will be over the Gulf of Mexico for a good portion of next week.
I cannot stress enough how low confidence any forecast solution is at this time with 90L given the various competing track factors and overall weak steering.
As for intensity, overall the pattern looks favorable in the near term for intensification and it is likely that a tropical storm will form as early as later today. Strengthening would be likely over the next 24-48 hours as the system will be over very warm waters in a low shear environment. Over the weekend, a very dry air mass associated with a frontal boundary will move into the northern and portions of the western Gulf of Mexico and some of this dry air may become entrained into the circulation and this could limit development. Most guidance keeps the system as a tropical storm while lingering over the Gulf of Mexico for several days.
Impacts:
The combination of lowering pressure in the southern Gulf combined with building high pressure over the OH valley will produce a moderate to strong pressure gradient over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico starting this weekend and lasting into next week. This is a favorable wind pattern for water level rise along the upper TX coast and using the GFS based extra-tropical storm surge forecast does show coastal water levels nearing 4.0 ft above MLLW by the Sunday high tides. Coastal flooding will be possible as early as Sunday and more likely into next week as the tropical system lingers over the western Gulf south of the upper TX coast resulting in a long fetch ENE/E wind flow.
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