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Old 10-26-2020, 02:23 PM   #1
muzzlebrake
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Default Election polls.

Big tech search engines won't pull up hardly any polls favorable to Trump but I did find this one by using a little trickery to get around the algorithms.
https://www.crowdwisdom360.com/blog/detail/553

Makes me feel a bit better.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:27 PM   #2
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Here is a very rudimentary video explaining the difference between a good and a bad poll. Later he is going to explain what suppression polling is and how it works. Hopefully youíll be able to see the fallacy of the RCP polling average. Understanding presidential polls and what to look at, how to reduce election worry. https://youtu.be/XC6ZENhb094


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Old 10-26-2020, 02:54 PM   #3
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Rasmussen has Trump ahead of Biden.
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:02 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by WItoTX View Post
Rasmussen has Trump ahead of Biden.

To me Talafagar has good polling data they predicted Trump win last time


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Old 10-26-2020, 03:03 PM   #5
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The massive massive crowds
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:31 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by WItoTX View Post
Rasmussen has Trump ahead of Biden.


This, by one point I believe which really means 10
And Biden was up by 16 last week

Haha




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Old 10-26-2020, 04:29 PM   #7
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Rasmussen is a joke in itself. Yes they have Trump up but no sane person believes the needle has moved that much in that short amount of time. It happens every single year....the polls get tighter as the election nears. That is not reality.

The fact is that Trump has ALWAYS been up or its been a very close race and these pollsters try to save a little face by tightening the race at the end....so as to not totally embarrass themselves. Totally dishonest.

Last edited by unclefish; 10-26-2020 at 04:32 PM.
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Old 10-26-2020, 04:31 PM   #8
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What is interesting is I dont know one person who voted for Trump last time but is voting for Biden this time. I do know a few who have switched from Hillary last time to Trump this time. I also know a ton of people who held their nose(myself included) and voted for Trump but couldnt/cant wait to cast a vote for Trump this time. I hope all of the rallies around the country are representative of what his support truly is. I just cant imagine where our country is headed if Biden is elected and Queen Nancy is still running the show. I have still only seen less than 10 Biden bumper stickers traveling the same roads I always have while in 2016 I saw Clinton stickers everywhere. Hell in 2018 there were Beto stickers everywhere. I just cant believe the polls to be correct that are showing Biden winning this election.
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:13 PM   #9
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Following for post-election look back....

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Old 10-27-2020, 11:25 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unclefish View Post
Rasmussen is a joke in itself. Yes they have Trump up but no sane person believes the needle has moved that much in that short amount of time. It happens every single year....the polls get tighter as the election nears. That is not reality.

The fact is that Trump has ALWAYS been up or its been a very close race and these pollsters try to save a little face by tightening the race at the end....so as to not totally embarrass themselves. Totally dishonest.
Oh I agree for sure. Today is the day they all will really start tightening up.
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Old 10-27-2020, 11:35 AM   #11
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I thought the polls were *****?
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Old 10-27-2020, 11:43 AM   #12
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Big tech owns most media outlet including pollsters. Polls are exactly where they were in 2016. They use polls in influence the public and sway voters. Not buying.
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Old 10-27-2020, 11:55 AM   #13
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Oh I agree for sure. Today is the day they all will really start tightening up.
Yep....there is no way Biden had a 12 point lead on Oct 6 and now 3 weeks later magically Trump is leading by a point. Every major media poll is corrupt to the core.
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Old 10-28-2020, 07:49 AM   #14
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https://youtu.be/8l50Csi1g4s
Heres a video about poll suppression

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Old 10-28-2020, 08:34 AM   #15
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Following for post-election look back....

You better line up time with your shrink after the election
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Old 10-28-2020, 08:50 PM   #16
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Sorry, cant help myself.
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Old 10-29-2020, 07:04 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by unclefish View Post
Rasmussen is a joke in itself. Yes they have Trump up but no sane person believes the needle has moved that much in that short amount of time. It happens every single year....the polls get tighter as the election nears. That is not reality.

The fact is that Trump has ALWAYS been up or its been a very close race and these pollsters try to save a little face by tightening the race at the end....so as to not totally embarrass themselves. Totally dishonest.
Agree
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Old 10-29-2020, 08:40 AM   #18
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Sorry, cant help myself.

Control yourself!






Ok, Iíll allow it


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Old 10-29-2020, 10:23 AM   #19
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Hey guys,

I've bee involved with public opinion research for the last 20 years. I can tell you that not respectable polling firm will purposely alter results or collect data so that the results favor a particular outcome. Presidential elections only happen once every four years. Every respectable polling firm wants to be accurate and wants to predict the actual outcome. Establishing yourself as a firm that can't accurately forecast public behavior based on public opinion is a recipe for disaster, b/c they won't be able sustain themselves financially in non-election years. Make sense?

That being said, a lot (majority) of polls incorrectly predicted the outcome of the 2016 election. This was extremely vexing to the public opinion polling industry. So much so that industry trade organizations sank a lot of money into trying to find out where they had made mistakes. If you are interested in learning more about what went wrong with the polls, you can do so here.

Happy Voting Season and may someone win!
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Old 10-29-2020, 11:12 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by simek View Post
Hey guys,

I've bee involved with public opinion research for the last 20 years. I can tell you that not respectable polling firm will purposely alter results or collect data so that the results favor a particular outcome. Presidential elections only happen once every four years. Every respectable polling firm wants to be accurate and wants to predict the actual outcome. Establishing yourself as a firm that can't accurately forecast public behavior based on public opinion is a recipe for disaster, b/c they won't be able sustain themselves financially in non-election years. Make sense?

That being said, a lot (majority) of polls incorrectly predicted the outcome of the 2016 election. This was extremely vexing to the public opinion polling industry. So much so that industry trade organizations sank a lot of money into trying to find out where they had made mistakes. If you are interested in learning more about what went wrong with the polls, you can do so here.

Happy Voting Season and may someone win!
I didn't read the entire 50 page story. But, I have listened to pollster after pollster say they are still under-sampling the exact folks who voted for Trump in 2016 (country/hard working folks who don't have time to respond to a poll) even this go round, and oversampling city republicans to make up for it. AND they still oversample democrats.

Also, notice how ALL the most commonly referenced polls tighten up within a week of election time??? That's not because of "better data". That is because those "reputable" pollsters realize that if they want job security in the next election, they need to have numbers that are within the margin of error by election day. Rassmussen is a prime example of that. Nothing has changed in the last week to swing 13 points. But according to them, it did...
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Old 10-29-2020, 11:13 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by simek View Post
Hey guys,

I've bee involved with public opinion research for the last 20 years. I can tell you that not respectable polling firm will purposely alter results or collect data so that the results favor a particular outcome. Presidential elections only happen once every four years. Every respectable polling firm wants to be accurate and wants to predict the actual outcome. Establishing yourself as a firm that can't accurately forecast public behavior based on public opinion is a recipe for disaster, b/c they won't be able sustain themselves financially in non-election years. Make sense?

That being said, a lot (majority) of polls incorrectly predicted the outcome of the 2016 election. This was extremely vexing to the public opinion polling industry. So much so that industry trade organizations sank a lot of money into trying to find out where they had made mistakes. If you are interested in learning more about what went wrong with the polls, you can do so here.

Happy Voting Season and may someone win!
I am not worried about the accuracy of the polls
But I am very worried about who is picking the polls and how the media prefer one vs another
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Old 10-29-2020, 11:29 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by pilar View Post
I am not worried about the accuracy of the polls
But I am very worried about who is picking the polls and how the media prefer one vs another
Valid concern. I think that it is where it benefits the informed voter to seek out a myriad of polls...those promoted by media that traditionally support an ideology and vice versa. As in most cases, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
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Old 10-29-2020, 11:31 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by WItoTX View Post
I didn't read the entire 50 page story. But, I have listened to pollster after pollster say they are still under-sampling the exact folks who voted for Trump in 2016 (country/hard working folks who don't have time to respond to a poll) even this go round, and oversampling city republicans to make up for it. AND they still oversample democrats.

Also, notice how ALL the most commonly referenced polls tighten up within a week of election time??? That's not because of "better data". That is because those "reputable" pollsters realize that if they want job security in the next election, they need to have numbers that are within the margin of error by election day. Rassmussen is a prime example of that. Nothing has changed in the last week to swing 13 points. But according to them, it did...
Spot freakin' on! You win a gold star!


All year they use polls that oversample D's to reflect a narrative. Then suddenly at the end it tightens up. None of them are respectable.

Last edited by unclefish; 10-29-2020 at 11:34 AM.
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Old 10-29-2020, 11:46 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simek View Post
Hey guys,

I've bee involved with public opinion research for the last 20 years. I can tell you that not respectable polling firm will purposely alter results or collect data so that the results favor a particular outcome. Presidential elections only happen once every four years. Every respectable polling firm wants to be accurate and wants to predict the actual outcome. Establishing yourself as a firm that can't accurately forecast public behavior based on public opinion is a recipe for disaster, b/c they won't be able sustain themselves financially in non-election years. Make sense?

That being said, a lot (majority) of polls incorrectly predicted the outcome of the 2016 election. This was extremely vexing to the public opinion polling industry. So much so that industry trade organizations sank a lot of money into trying to find out where they had made mistakes. If you are interested in learning more about what went wrong with the polls, you can do so here.

Happy Voting Season and may someone win!

We should take a poll on TBH and see if even 1 person here has been contacted by a pollster! I do not know one person EVER who has been contacted by a pollster. Maybe people have but it seems the more Trump supporters i talk to the less chances anyone contacted them.

The POLLS, Media, etc... lost the publics trust in 2016 after the election. The polls were so wrong that every common sense person just agreed that the polls are skewed and never right.
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Old 10-29-2020, 11:59 AM   #25
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How would I know if a pollster called me, I don't answer unrecognized numbers?
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Old 10-29-2020, 12:03 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by WItoTX View Post
I didn't read the entire 50 page story. But, I have listened to pollster after pollster say they are still under-sampling the exact folks who voted for Trump in 2016 (country/hard working folks who don't have time to respond to a poll) even this go round, and oversampling city republicans to make up for it. AND they still oversample democrats.

Also, notice how ALL the most commonly referenced polls tighten up within a week of election time??? That's not because of "better data". That is because those "reputable" pollsters realize that if they want job security in the next election, they need to have numbers that are within the margin of error by election day. Rassmussen is a prime example of that. Nothing has changed in the last week to swing 13 points. But according to them, it did...
I'd suggest you read the 3-page executive summary, which does a good job of summarizing the issues. Regarding the undersampling issue you mention...Pollsters are not under-sampling. The demographic you reference (I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that you too are a "country man who does not have time for polls) is not responding. Those issues are entirely separate, but yield the same result. Some of the issue can be addressed in the end in what's called weighting, but not all of it. One quite simple solution to polling inaccuracy is to encourage hard working country people that don't have time for polls to find the time to participate. Then, they'd not have so difficult a time finding an accurate poll. I can assure you that pollsters would appreciate that effort. And, again, city Republicans and Democrats are not being oversampled, they're just more inclined to participate.

Regarding your second point about "reputable" pollsters realiz[ing] that if they want job security in the next election, they need to have numbers that are within the margin of error by election day." Again, as in I stated in my initial post, that's not how the polling industry works. Being within the margin of error just before an election is not what motivates pollsters. Accuracy motivates pollsters. I'm confident in saying that a polling firm would rather predict the winner than be within the margin of error. There were very few polls that showed Trump winning in 2016. Those that did reaped the financial benefit and continue to do so. They were not motivated by being within the margin of error.
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Old 10-29-2020, 12:06 PM   #27
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I have answered several polls and texts. I always say I’m voting straight line “D”. Everyone should. Messes up the polls. 10 people doing this sways it by 20 spots.
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Old 10-29-2020, 12:09 PM   #28
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I have answered several polls and texts. I always say Iím voting straight line ďDĒ. Everyone should. Messes up the polls. 10 people doing this sways it by 20 spots.
Ha! Come on Glen....throw me a bone here man!

Hope you are well.
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Old 10-29-2020, 12:13 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by manwitaplan View Post
The polls were so wrong that every common sense person just agreed that the polls are skewed and never right.
Your projecting my friend.
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Old 10-29-2020, 12:16 PM   #30
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Polls will have lost all credibility after this election...it will more embarrassing for them than 2016.
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Old 10-29-2020, 12:27 PM   #31
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Polls will have lost all credibility after this election...it will more embarrassing for them than 2016.
I disagree. Failure is the mother of success. If the polls are wrong (again), I believe it will foster a new zeal to get it better next time. And, technically, those that show a lead within the margin of error, won't technically be wrong!
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Old 10-29-2020, 12:49 PM   #32
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Polls will have lost all credibility after this election...it will more embarrassing for them than 2016.
Polls are crap ,
Wish in one hand and crap in the other and see which one fills up faster
We might need to prepare for Kamala to be the potus
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Old 10-29-2020, 01:55 PM   #33
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The premise that the major pollsters want to be accurate is as inaccurate as their polls. Maybe that's the way it used to be but not now. They want to get paid....and now the MSM actively pays for polling that suggests Trump is way behind. CNN doesn't want accuracy...neither does Fox...they are there to push a narrative. Same with the rest of the MSM.

Inaccuracy didn't hurt polling companies...name a major polling company that went under after 2016? These MSM companies still use the same tired polling companies that got it wrong in '16.
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Old 10-29-2020, 02:22 PM   #34
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The premise that the major pollsters want to be accurate is as inaccurate as their polls. Maybe that's the way it used to be but not now. They want to get paid....and now the MSM actively pays for polling that suggests Trump is way behind. CNN doesn't want accuracy...neither does Fox...they are there to push a narrative. Same with the rest of the MSM.

Inaccuracy didn't hurt polling companies...name a major polling company that went under after 2016? These MSM companies still use the same tired polling companies that got it wrong in '16.
Again, I'll say that media only publishing polls that support their ideology is a problem. So, you and I agree on that. That can be solved by conservatives flipping over to CNN or NPR and liberals following suit with Fox News. It's not that difficult. I find that many folks take more solace in following the narrative their favorite media outlet pushes, then complaining about whatever their told is wrong with the world. Havin said that, I'm not indicating that you are of that ilk.

I can't answer your question about what companies went under. I just don't have access to that info. I agree it would be interesting to find out.

And, inaccurate polling did hurt polling companies. If that was not the case, this thread would not exist.
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Old 10-29-2020, 02:56 PM   #35
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See just like this. Mess the polls up- Iíve answered at least 10 of these. If they ask if Iím voting R I say No
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Old 10-29-2020, 03:12 PM   #36
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Glen, I applaud your loyalty to the brand.
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Old 10-29-2020, 03:55 PM   #37
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My concern is that the polls may be closer to right this time. My concern is that many of us live in an echo chamber getting most of our feedback from similar minded folks and sites that align with our thinking. My huge concern is that Biden is ahead and will win the election.

As I look at reports from Morgan Stanley ,Goldman Sachs, KKR and others they all have Biden winning solidly with a reasonable chance of Dems taking the senate as well. Thats how they are betting. I know from my personal travels as I get out of La./Texas the narrative changes precipitously. I think there is a very real concern that Democrats have a very strong No.3. Hope I am wrong.
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Old 10-29-2020, 04:00 PM   #38
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Glen, I applaud your loyalty to the brand.
Are you a pollster?
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Old 10-29-2020, 04:01 PM   #39
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See just like this. Mess the polls up- Iíve answered at least 10 of these. If they ask if Iím voting R I say No
I think this & folks like me who simply delete are what is driving inaccurate polls...I think gems are much more eager to reply & answer unknown #'s.
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Old 10-29-2020, 04:06 PM   #40
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Are you a pollster?
I am not a pollster, but a large part of my job involves public opinion research...very little of which touches on politics.
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Old 10-29-2020, 04:07 PM   #41
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They polls are just setting up a contested election. When Trump wins, they will say there was election fraud by the Conservatives and no way could Biden loose being so far up in the polls! It will be a while until we know the true winner even if it is a landslide either way. If the election is close, no telling if and when it will be decided!
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Old 10-29-2020, 04:33 PM   #42
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I think the major flaw in polling when it comes to elections are the psychology differences between liberal and conservatives. Liberals want to talk to everyone, and conservatives don't want to talk to anyone.
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Old 10-30-2020, 07:25 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simek View Post
I'd suggest you read the 3-page executive summary, which does a good job of summarizing the issues. Regarding the undersampling issue you mention...Pollsters are not under-sampling. The demographic you reference (I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that you too are a "country man who does not have time for polls) is not responding. Those issues are entirely separate, but yield the same result. Some of the issue can be addressed in the end in what's called weighting, but not all of it. One quite simple solution to polling inaccuracy is to encourage hard working country people that don't have time for polls to find the time to participate. Then, they'd not have so difficult a time finding an accurate poll. I can assure you that pollsters would appreciate that effort. And, again, city Republicans and Democrats are not being oversampled, they're just more inclined to participate.

Regarding your second point about "reputable" pollsters realiz[ing] that if they want job security in the next election, they need to have numbers that are within the margin of error by election day." Again, as in I stated in my initial post, that's not how the polling industry works. Being within the margin of error just before an election is not what motivates pollsters. Accuracy motivates pollsters. I'm confident in saying that a polling firm would rather predict the winner than be within the margin of error. There were very few polls that showed Trump winning in 2016. Those that did reaped the financial benefit and continue to do so. They were not motivated by being within the margin of error.
Thanks for the explanation. I read the three page summary. I am hard working, unfortunately stuck in the city (For now). However, like Glen, when pollsters call/text/email, I become a democrat as well. AOC is not socialist enough for me in those polls.

I think we agree polling firms would like to be right. But what if polling firms stood to make a lot of money by skewing results? I think they do. They can take money from both sides if they continue this way, with R's and D's paying them to give more data, and then firms get hits on their sites, which drives ad revenue.

I appreciate the response, I realize providing facts in a time like this that don't necessarily follow what everyone else is saying isn't always easy. Personally, I am very jaded on the polling process as a whole. I see these massive crowds, I see the destruction in D led cities, I see D leaders completely incompetent when it comes to COVID, and I just can't fathom how anyone in their right mind would vote for more of that.
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Old 10-30-2020, 02:01 PM   #44
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My concern is that the polls may be closer to right this time. My concern is that many of us live in an echo chamber getting most of our feedback from similar minded folks and sites that align with our thinking. My huge concern is that Biden is ahead and will win the election.

As I look at reports from Morgan Stanley ,Goldman Sachs, KKR and others they all have Biden winning solidly with a reasonable chance of Dems taking the senate as well. Thats how they are betting. I know from my personal travels as I get out of La./Texas the narrative changes precipitously. I think there is a very real concern that Democrats have a very strong No.3. Hope I am wrong.

Youíre not wrong very often...hereís to hoping like hell your way in left field on this one


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Old 10-30-2020, 03:04 PM   #45
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A lot of people were very wrong in 2016, Iím hoping for a repeat this time around as well.


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Old 10-30-2020, 06:05 PM   #46
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Again, I'll say that media only publishing polls that support their ideology is a problem. So, you and I agree on that. That can be solved by conservatives flipping over to CNN or NPR and liberals following suit with Fox News. It's not that difficult. I find that many folks take more solace in following the narrative their favorite media outlet pushes, then complaining about whatever their told is wrong with the world. Havin said that, I'm not indicating that you are of that ilk.

I can't answer your question about what companies went under. I just don't have access to that info. I agree it would be interesting to find out.

And, inaccurate polling did hurt polling companies. If that was not the case, this thread would not exist.
So what is your interpretation on the current polls? Which ones are good and which arenít? Who do you see being ahead accurately?
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Old 10-30-2020, 07:06 PM   #47
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A lot of people were very wrong in 2016, Iím hoping for a repeat this time around as well.


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Me as well. I just knew Hillary was going to win. I figured no way Trump would win. The following is even larger this go around.
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Old 10-30-2020, 09:04 PM   #48
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Me as well. I just knew Hillary was going to win. I figured no way Trump would win. The following is even larger this go around.
yep, I really thought that Clinton would win. And I have the same feeling now; so hopefully it will turn out the same way.

however, I doubt it; they have had 4 years to get it right this time!
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Old 10-31-2020, 12:11 AM   #49
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Hot off the press Fox News poll...

Biden: 52%
Trump: 44%

Fox News poll from same time in 2016

Clinton: 45%
Trump: 43%

Bidenís Fox News lead of +8% is 6% higher than Clintonís Fox News lead of +2% heading into election weekend.

Also...

Favorable view of Biden: 55%
Negative view of Biden: 43%

Favorable view of Trump: 44%
Negative view of Trump: 55%

By comparison in 2016:

Favorable view of Clinton: 43%
Negative view of Clinton: 56%

Favorable view of Trump: 43%
Negative view of Trump: 55%

Trumpís chance of winning is not 0%, so he could still win it.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pol...rrows-slightly
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Old 10-31-2020, 12:15 AM   #50
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Election polls - **** em
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