Draw Hunt Analysis

[Deerguy]

Here’s an interesting analysis (for me anyway, probably nobody else). It appears that I have been a participant in the draw system for 22 years now For some reason the history in the system only goes back to 1996, but it shows I had 2 points from prior years, meaning I had applied at least 2 years previous (my memory doesn’t seem to go back that far). In the descriptions below, ‘the change’ refers to the changes to the program that occurred a few years ago.

In 22 years, I’ve been drawn 9 times, twice in 1 year (40% yearly success overall), 8 times before the change (35%), 1 time after (50%).
In 22 years, I’ve applied for 216 total hunts (10/year), 143 before the change (7/year), 73 after (37/year).
Another way of looking at ‘success rate’ is to look at the number of times drawn relative to the number of individual hunts applied for, which is 5.6% before the change (8 of 143) and 1.4% post-change (1 of 73). But, to be fair, the new system has only been in place 2 years.

The most hunts I’ve ever been drawn for in 1 year was 2 (only happened once), the rest were only 1 hunt per year.
I’ve applied every year since 1994. The lowest number of hunts I have put in for in a given year was 2, the most was 17 prior to the change, 45 post-change (last year, went 0-45). The longest I’ve gone without being drawn for something is 4 years.

I’ve applied for 22 different categories before the change, 17 after the change (24 total different categories).
Of the 24 different categories I’ve applied for, I’ve only been drawn in 3 of them (for 21 different categories, I’ve never been selected).
I started applying in 1994, but didn’t get to carry a rifle on a drawn hunt until 2009 (16 years).
In addition to the hunts I was drawn for, I have also gone stand-by for 7 hunts in 7 years and was selected each time.
I have applied with a total of 17 different hunters over the years, counting stand-by, and 12 have been selected on hunts with me (unfortunately, Dad has never made it).

Here’s a breakdown of individual hunt categories:

Archery Deer – I’ve applied in 17 years, 15 pre-change, 2 post-change and have been drawn 5 times (all pre-change).
Exotic – I’ve applied in 12 years, 10 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Antlerless/Spike – I’ve applied 13 years, 11 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Either Sex - I’ve applied in 22 years, 20 pre-change, 2 post-change and have been drawn 2 times (1 pre-change, 1 post-change).
Pronghorn - I’ve applied in 19 years, 17 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Spring Turkey - I’ve applied in 15 years, 13 pre-change, 2 post-change and have been drawn 2 times (both pre-change).
Guided Exotic - I’ve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
Guided Deer - I’ve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
Private Lands Either Sex - I’ve applied 10 years, 9 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Guided Bighorn Sheep - I’ve applied 6 years, 5 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Management - I’ve applied 10 years, 8 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Archery Exotic - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Feral Hog - I’ve applied 2 years, both pre-change. Never been drawn.
Javelina - I’ve applied 3 years, all pre-change. Never been drawn.
Archery Mule Deer - I’ve applied 8 years, 6 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Mule Deer - I’ve applied 9 years, 7 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Private Lands Pronghorn - I’ve applied 5 years, 4 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Alligator - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Private Lands Antlerless/Spike - I’ve applied 4 years, 2 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Guided Gemsbok - I’ve applied 3 years, all pre-change. Never been drawn.
Crossbow - I’ve applied 2 years, both pre-change (now defunct). Never been drawn.
Guided Oryx - I’ve applied 1 year, pre-change, and wasn’t drawn.
Alligator Management - I’ve applied 2 years, both post-change. Never been drawn.
Postcard - I’ve applied 1 year, post-change and wasn’t drawn.

Direct comparisons to other hunters/success will never be comparable due to loyalty points, loyalty points averaged by group members, and an individual’s preference in where you apply (I tend to just put in for ‘the good spots’) as well as applying for the really difficult categories (like Pronghorn). But, I’d say that I have been fairly unlucky and have still gone on 16 hunts (9 drawn and 7 stand-by) in 22 years (73%). That’s not too bad.

[tex8569]

How many hunts were successful?

[Deerguy]

How many hunts were successful?

Most, to varying degrees.

Three of the hunts were mule deer bowhunts at Black gap and Elephant Mtn., which are pretty tough. First one, 3 hunters no deer. Second one, 2 hunters no deer. Third one, 2 hunters no deer. Another bowhunt at Kerr, but couldn't make the trip so nothing there. Another bowhunt at Daughtrey, 4 hunters, 1 deer (140-inch typical 11-point), 1 miss, 1 other guy passed up several. Rifle hunt at Matador, 4 hunters 2 bucks (140 and 130), 1 doe, and 1 pig. Gun hunt at Gene Howe, 3 hunters, 1 buck (127-inch 7-point), 1 buck fawn, 1 miss. Nine turkey hunts with 14 birds killed (plus 1 miss). Only hunt I wasn't satisfied with the outcome was Matador. Took me 16 years to get drawn and didn't shoot a buck (never saw a shooter. All of the hunts have been great though.

[Shane924]

This is great info. I have also seen my draw odds drop dramatically post change. I applied for 47 hunts over the past two years. I have only drawn one, and it was a high odds Javelina hunt.

My draw odds post change are 2.2% which is much lower than many of the GDA draw odds which I have applied for, not including preference points.

I appreciate the drawn hunt system and the opportunity it provides, but with low draw odds and low success rates I am beginning to consider putting my money elsewhere. It's a further drive, but with big country hunts, and over the counter tags, some of the western states are hard to pass up.

[bossbowman]

Whats really hurting is they are offering fewer and fewer hunts every year, see this thread for reference http://discussions.texasbowhunter.co...d.php?t=538514 First problem they need to fix IMO is making preference points more valuable to those of us that have been putting in for a decade plus and not drawn, a multipier or something...

[Deerguy]

I'd agree with that. I'm one of the ones that doesn't get too worked up about the draw system, just look at it as a low-cost "chance" to hunt some different areas (granted a low percentage chance, both pre- and post-change). There will never be a perfect system. But, I do like the idea of a multiplier that's increased at 5-year intervals. Would really like to go on the mule deer hunt before I get too much older.

[James]

You had me go back and look because I was curious. Since 1996...

I have applied for 99 hunts and drew 5 times. So I am batting 5% , that is almost as good as drawing a sheep tag out West. 2 of which were youth, as an adult I have drawn one crappy deer hunt and one spring turkey hunt

1997 drew youth gun deer tag at lano river - I do not think we saw a deer, low success rate

1999 drew Chap deer hunt with my Dad - I killed a 125" 9 point (12 years old) great hunt

2001 drew Youth hunt at Kerr - non successful but I remember seeing a nice buck and not getting a shot (14 years old) great hunt

2006 drew Spring Turkey - did not go, cannot remember why (freshman in college and probably chasing girls)

2007 drew fort boggy archery deer hunt - hunted hard and did not see a deer, do not remember anyone seeing a deer

I have 16 points in most categories, kinda depressing after looking at it that way

[Cypress Hunter]

great information; thanks for posting.

[sqiggy]

2007 drew fort boggy archery deer hunt - hunted hard and did not see a deer, do not remember anyone seeing a deer

Wow. I have hunted that place 4 times. Three of those yrs were all in a row. But every time I hunted there, I had the opportunity to sling an arrow. Always one reason or another, I missed on every shot!!!
The last time I hunted there, which was 4 or 5 yrs ago, I saw a ton of deer, of course, most were just outside of bow range, except 2!!
Missed one and the other, a big 8, came in at 20 yds, but behind a tree, then circled around me on the wrong side and just never had a clean shot.
Always had good hunts there.

[Bloodhound]

Ok I surmise that we can check our personal stats for all this...How? Thanks. I'd love to know mine!

[1riot1ranger]

Interesting. All the analysis and it's still the luck of the draw. The year before the change I didn't get drawn and put in for every category except mule deer and alligator. The year the system changed I got drawn for Orxy at Mason Mountain and Deer at Kerrville park. So, from my perspective the new system works great!

[Budman68]

I'm the opposite, never got drawn the through the old system. Ten years of nothing. So far I have been drawn three times in the new system. Twice by second draw. Once archery, one any sex, and one spike/doe. Lets see what 2016 brings.

[Hydestik]

Most, to varying degrees.

Three of the hunts were mule deer bowhunts at Black gap and Elephant Mtn., which are pretty tough. First one, 3 hunters no deer. Second one, 2 hunters no deer. Third one, 2 hunters no deer. Another bowhunt at Kerr, but couldn't make the trip so nothing there. Another bowhunt at Daughtrey, 4 hunters, 1 deer (140-inch typical 11-point), 1 miss, 1 other guy passed up several. Rifle hunt at Matador, 4 hunters 2 bucks (140 and 130), 1 doe, and 1 pig. Gun hunt at Gene Howe, 3 hunters, 1 buck (127-inch 7-point), 1 buck fawn, 1 miss. Nine turkey hunts with 14 birds killed (plus 1 miss). Only hunt I wasn't satisfied with the outcome was Matador. Took me 16 years to get drawn and didn't shoot a buck (never saw a shooter. All of the hunts have been great though.

Dang man that's some pretty tough odds even if you get drawn. I would assume a lot of that has to do with the fact that you have to scout and set up somewhere close to a game trail . Did you bring a pop up blind or climbing stand or what ?

[Budman68]

Dang man that's some pretty tough odds even if you get drawn. I would assume a lot of that has to do with the fact that you have to scout and set up somewhere close to a game trail . Did you bring a pop up blind or climbing stand or what ?

I've learned, if it takes me 10 years to draw a permit for a specific location I'm shooting at the first deer that qualifies. Wasted to many trips waiting on that buck...

Most of these draw hunts already have blinds set up and you have to draw again for a blind when you get there.

[Deerguy]

Ok I surmise that we can check our personal stats for all this...How? Thanks. I'd love to know mine!

Go to the website and log in to check status. When it loads, go down a little to where it says Hunt Season. There will be a drop down box where you can select a year.