Nasty weather/DFW metroplex

[nando]

Could be coming if the CAP erodes....

From Texas Storm Chasers....

[.243 WSSM]

Mesoscale Discussion 237

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Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...north central Texas through eastern
Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131739Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop early to mid
afternoon from north central Texas through east Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas posing a risk for very large hail, damaging wind
and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows boundary-layer cumulus
increasing along sharpening dryline and dryline/cold front merger
from southeast KS through central OK and north central TX. Cloud
breaks and low-level theta-e advection is promoting destabilization,
and objective analysis shows a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in
warm sector. The atmosphere still appears capped by an inversion
located around 800 mb associated with warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer. However deep ascent with a lead shortwave
trough continues to act on this layer, and should eventually erode
the inversion such that surface-based storms will initiate along the
dryline during the next couple hours. The 18Z Fort Worth RAOB showed
substantial cooling in the capping layer compared to the 12Z. While
deep-layer shear is very strong (50-55 kt), VWP data continues to
indicate veer-back-veer characteristics, possibly due to the effects
of the lead shortwave trough. Low-level hodographs are initially
large with current 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 250+ m2/s2.
However, some decrease in 0-1 km hodograph size should occur as the
low-level jet shifts east. Nevertheless, the overall environment is
supportive of supercells and bowing segments capable of very large
hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes this afternoon.

[quarterback]

It is that time of year. Pretty calm right now but we all know how things change as the day goes on and the temperature rises. Thanks OP for the heads up. I'll be watching as things develop. Let's see what happens this afternoon....

[Kmart49]

Tornado watch was just issued for Dallas County.

[stickbowcoop]

I don't see anything in the forecast here in Springtown. Maybe we are just far enough out that it will miss us.

[Antlers86]

I don't see anything in the forecast here in Springtown. Maybe we are just far enough out that it will miss us.

Another hour or so and you will be able to tell.

[91cavgt]

Us down here in Waco are included in the tornado watch. Hopefully it will all wait another 2 1/2 hours before it hits. Driving kids home on a school bus when it is hailing is not fun. It gets VERY loud inside a bus when it hails

[Antlers86]

Us down here in Waco are included in the tornado watch. Hopefully it will all wait another 2 1/2 hours before it hits. Driving kids home on a school bus when it is hailing is not fun. It gets VERY loud inside a bus when it hails

It's very loud in a school bus even when it's not hailing! Especially on a Friday!

Drive safe!

[Sleepy]

Us down here in Waco are included in the tornado watch. Hopefully it will all wait another 2 1/2 hours before it hits. Driving kids home on a school bus when it is hailing is not fun. It gets VERY loud inside a bus when it hails

I was working in a substation down near Marfa 5 or 6 years ago when a hail storm came through. Golf ball size and all we had was a little control room inside the substation which was a metal building maybe 15x20. Bout shat my pants. Sounded like the building was surrounded by people hammering it with baseball bats!

[jerp]

Hmmm... All the weather websites are still showing 0% chance of rain for the western part of the Metroplex but Tarrant and Parker Counties are included in the tornado watch.

[Antlers86]

.

[Antlers86]

Hmmm... All the weather websites are still showing 0% chance of rain for the western part of the Metroplex but Tarrant and Parker Counties are included in the tornado watch.

Line is 2 counties west of the metromess. Storms are forming up near Wichita Falls. By the time it is in line with DFW they will be popping up even more. Going to be close and I'm sure surprise many popping up out of nowhere!

[91cavgt]

I was working in a substation down near Marfa 5 or 6 years ago when a hail storm came through. Golf ball size and all we had was a little control room inside the substation which was a metal building maybe 15x20. Bout shat my pants. Sounded like the building was surrounded by people hammering it with baseball bats!

It’s tough on a school bus due to all the windows. If big hail hits, you have to try to get the kids to move away from the windows that the hail is hitting, while the kids are yelling and screaming, and while it is sounding like a herd of cattle running across the roof.

[tonyt79]

Not a fan of the thought of hail after it came through a few years ago.


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[Brazman]

It's very loud in a school bus even when it's not hailing! Especially on a Friday the 13th!

Drive safe!

FIFY!