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    Chance of snow

    Can't believe Johnny Weather and others haven't started a thread on this yet.
    Chance of of snow flakes for the southern half of TX.

    From Jeff Linder - Meteorologist for Harris County Flood control.

    Winter Storm will move across TX through early Friday.

    Periods of rain mixed with sleet and snow possible tonight and again Thursday night/Friday morning.

    Cold surface high pressure has built southward over the region with temperatures hovering in the low 40’s much of the day. Rainfall coverage has been plentiful today, but amounts have been generally light. Will focus on the potential for P-type transition tonight and again on Thursday night and any possible accumulations.

    Tonight:

    Widespread light rainfall will continue through the night as moisture overruns the cold surface dome. Surface temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 30’s overnight and some slight cooling of the air column could result in some sleet or snow mixed in with the rainfall north of I-10. Since surface temperatures ae expected to remain well above freezing any sleet/snow would melt on contact with the warm ground.

    Thursday:

    Expect mostly light rainfall through the day, but a strong upper level trough will approach the region Thursday afternoon with large scale lift developing. Near the surface a surge of drier air will be advecting into the region from the NNE and this will likely result in the rain shield sagging southward during the day and gradually ending from the north to the south by the afternoon hours. Will keep temperatures in the 40’s again on Thursday.

    Thursday night/Friday AM:

    Forecast becomes highly complicated as all winter weather events are in this part of the state. Strong trough approaches the region spring strong lift over the area. Moisture profiles are marginal, but maybe a little wetter than expected yesterday. Temperature profiles are also marginal, but better than tonight so the potential for a rain/sleet/snow mixture is slightly better on Thursday evening into Friday morning. Much will depend on how dry the surface layer becomes and if any precipitation can actually reach the ground. Think the best chances for this will be along the coast and toward Matagorda Bay. Also to be noted is some weak instability in the mid levels which can sometimes result in meso scale banding in these sort of winter weather setups that can locally enhance precipitation rates and cool the air column…we do not have a lot of experience with this down here, but snow events in 2004 and 2009 both had these fingerprints. Appears the best chances for rain mixed with sleet and snow will be along the coast and then across the coastal bend region where models are more aggressive with moisture. Not sure the thermal profiles will be as favorable as shown…meaning there may be more rain…but the trend today has been in all guidance for a higher threat of mixed precipitation especially down SW.

    Other aspect that will come into play Friday morning is low temperatures which could reach freezing over portions of the area. Think the best area likely to see freezing temps. or below is along and N of HWY 105, but this is also to likely be the region with the least precipitation if any at all. Where precipitation is the heaviest (south of I-10) surface temperatures will likely remain above freezing. However should any locally enhanced snow/sleet develop then local cooling of the surface temperature toward freezing is possible and this could result in some ability of accumulation.

    Overall at this time the factors involved appear to be just slightly enough out of phase to preclude widespread winter precipitation or accumulation over the region, but something that will need to be watched closely on Thursday as the parameters all come into play over the area and model trends become reality

    #2
    I ain't seen enough snow to make a decent line out of.

    [emoji51][emoji51][emoji1]

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      #3
      Snow won’t sniff the area. Lol

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        #4
        NAM Model run through Friday.

        Last edited by unclefish; 12-06-2017, 10:03 PM.

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          #5
          We have had snow all day here in the southern tip of new Mexico.

          Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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            #6
            Just stopped snowing here in Odessa. Was neat to see it at least

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              #7
              Frank Billingsley is saying the same thing

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                #8
                I didn’t post because I didn’t think it was a realistic possibility. Lots of variable conditions have to line up for that snowfall to occur and I just think surface temps won’t make be cold enough.

                But y’all post up pics I’d it happens

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                  #9
                  I will stick to hurricanes. lol In my 18 years living in Montgomery County, not once have I seen the ground white.

                  Interesting set up. This will be a nowcast type situation as it always is down here. I hope it plays out but I ain't touching this one. [emoji16]

                  Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

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                    #10
                    Snowing here now in Harper. About a half inch already.
                    Roads are icy be careful.

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                      #11


                      Didn’t really expect to wake up to this in Barksdale.

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                        #12
                        That's crazy that it is snowing south and west of the DFW and not even a sniff of moisture in this area.

                        I feel cheated.

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                          #13
                          Nothing here in the Panhandle either, everything south and east of us.

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                            #14
                            Coming down hard in sonora this morning....

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                              #15
                              We are in San Diego right now and there are snowfakes everywhere!

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