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Old 02-07-2017, 07:55 PM   #3
Pope & Young
Chew's Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Kingwood, TX
Hunt In: Leon County

Thinking positive!

Tuesday's reveal of Baseball Prospectus' first 2017 PECOTA projections is the latest sign spring training is near.

And PECOTA loves the 2017 Astros.

BP's Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm forecasts the Astros to win 93 games this season, the most in the American League. The projection has the Indians winning the AL Central with 92 wins and the Red Sox taking the AL East with 90 wins.

Behind the Astros in the AL West PECOTA projects the Mariners to place second with 87 wins, the Rangers third at 85 wins and the Angels (79) and Athletics (75) both finishing with losing records.

The most surprising aspect of the projections as they relate to the Astros is how it expects them to get to 93 wins. PECOTA projects the Astros' pitching staff - which features a starting rotation filled with question marks - to allow the fewest runs (648) in the AL. Their dramatically improved lineup is pegged for the league's third-most runs (768), behind the Indians (798) and Mariners (770).

These are merely one projections, of course, and via just one projection system. PECOTA last year forecasted the third-place Astros (84-78) to win the AL West at 88 wins and had the division-winning Rangers (95-67) finishing with a losing record at 80-82.

Astros pitchers and catchers report a week from Tuesday to the team's new facility in West Palm Beach, Fla.
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