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Reckon This One Will Sniff The Gulf?

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    Originally posted by TexasBob View Post
    So NHC kept a state line landfall. Eric Berger is holding to that and minimal Houston impact with the caveat of update later. You guys sold on that solution?


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    I was just watching a video from the Weather Channel, the lady on there showed a prediction graphic of the eye moving in West of Galveston supposedly dumping 3-4 " around Houston. But then the very next video, they say east of Houston. Nobody really knows anything. Its a big guess

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      Im sticking with the Euro model, no reason i can see that it is wrong. I still say a more westward shift is coming which will put it landfalling somewhere near Matagorda. The ridge buckled, the Euro picked up on that several days ago. Either way, be prepared.

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        Originally posted by Bonesplitter View Post
        Im sticking with the Euro model, no reason i can see that it is wrong. I still say a more westward shift is coming which will put it landfalling somewhere near Matagorda. The ridge buckled, the Euro picked up on that several days ago. Either way, be prepared.

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        Wow! I almost just clicked off the thread when I saw the landfall on the Ms/La line. I scroll a little further down and now Im in the eye!

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          Originally posted by Man View Post
          Wow! I almost just clicked off the thread when I saw the landfall on the Ms/La line. I scroll a little further down and now Im in the eye!
          Well, nothing set in stone, just my thought. Its really gonna have to close off and get going soon to get a real grasp on location.

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            I agree with Bonesplitter on this. That ridge was the only thing prevented Westward movement and it's really retreating. There were times last night I could start to see WNW movement.

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              Latest update

              Originally posted by NHC
              Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4
              NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
              1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

              Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
              circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday,
              but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears
              to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy
              42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer
              to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being
              maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system
              could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later
              today.

              The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on
              continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
              into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is
              forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical
              shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off
              the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
              previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid.

              The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the
              there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a
              mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a
              better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered
              generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts
              with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more
              north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve
              around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a
              little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows
              the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by
              48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the
              mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across
              the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central
              Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating.

              The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
              rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
              Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain
              hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
              encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.


              FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

              INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
              12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
              24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
              36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
              48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
              72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
              96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
              120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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                Originally posted by 1369 View Post
                Latest update
                The FUBAR meter is dropping to about 21%

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                  Work sent this model out today from NWS Lake Charles.

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                    I've been watching these two storms pretty close myself, sure looks like our hay pastures, food plots, and gardens are going to get the rain they are in desperate need of.

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                      Tropical storm watch has been issued for Harris county. Advisory basically uses 59 as the line, impacts along there and east.


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                        Assuming a landfall west of Gtown what can be expected in terms of impact. I know we won't have big winds but can we predict a tidal surge of some sort. I have a Bay home on the Westend of the island and I am out of town not back to till Thursday night. I can have people get down there and tie off the boat and move all patio furniture inside but I am not prepared for 4 foot surge that flood the garage.
                        Is this a possibility?

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                          Cindy

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                            ..and we now have Tropical Storm Cindy. Have been noticing that it didnt appear to be moving this morning, and they note that it is Stationary. Could possibly have a window upcoming to strengthen if it can tuck under the area of lower shear from the Upper Level Low that is retreating to the SW.

                            BULLETIN
                            Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
                            NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
                            100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

                            ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
                            ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


                            SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
                            ----------------------------------------------
                            LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
                            ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
                            ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
                            MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
                            PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
                            MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...2

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                              Originally posted by Raleigh View Post
                              Assuming a landfall west of Gtown what can be expected in terms of impact. I know we won't have big winds but can we predict a tidal surge of some sort. I have a Bay home on the Westend of the island and I am out of town not back to till Thursday night. I can have people get down there and tie off the boat and move all patio furniture inside but I am not prepared for 4 foot surge that flood the garage.
                              Is this a possibility?
                              NHS says the Storm Surge: "inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible along the coast in portions of the tropical storm warning area."

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                                Latest Euro(running now) continues to show Galveston Thursday morning.. Strongest run for the Euro too so far(992mb).

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