The Elk Thread

[RdRdrFan]

The size of these units and the relative small reach of Texas Bowhunter isn't going to change your draw odds. I hunt unit 55 in CO, come find me.

Just one more day!! Packing all my stuff tomorrow night

No joke. I assure you that he could have posted the unit in his original post and it wouldn't have changed the odds by 1% next year......likely not a tenth of a percent. The prime units in the Gila are always going to have crappy odds of drawing a tag.

[supertrooperl14]

Tagged out in NM! Two solid bulls down near the Gila.. One we called in on a string and the other we spot and stalked. Mine was @ 50 yards and his was at 60. My first bull and his best to date. Could write pages about each one but it's been a long week with about 3 hours sleep each night, so I'm beat! Maybe later lol!

Awesome job guys!!!!!

[Stoof]

Me and a few guys from here just got back from CO. I was with Reed Goodman AKA bowfishingfool when he knocked down his cow with me calling. 56 yd shot.

Raleigh was there and BobG held down logistics. We hit up the dreaded unit 53. Steep and thick country. I learned a ton and feel more confident about next season.





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Violence never settles anything
-Genghis Kahn

[tbeak]

Very nice guys

[LWC]

No joke. I assure you that he could have posted the unit in his original post and it wouldn't have changed the odds by 1% next year......likely not a tenth of a percent. The prime units in the Gila are always going to have crappy odds of drawing a tag.

He said it was a unit NEAR the Gila. Big difference between one of the top units in the Gila that have very low single digit odds of drawing. Some units near the Gila have double digit odds of drawing a tag. They won't if word gets out all over the web. And more than just TBH members can see the posts. Lots of folks out there doing searches for little gems of units with better than usual drawing odds. I'm one of them.

Just a word of caution and people can post what they want to. Just don't be surprised when it is harder to draw a tag....or it gets harder to find a camping spot in your otc unit.

[RdRdrFan]

He said it was a unit NEAR the Gila. Big difference between one of the top units in the Gila that have very low single digit odds of drawing. Some units near the Gila have double digit odds of drawing a tag. They won't if word gets out all over the web. And more than just TBH members can see the posts. Lots of folks out there doing searches for little gems of units with better than usual drawing odds. I'm one of them.



Just a word of caution and people can post what they want to. Just don't be surprised when it is harder to draw a tag....or it gets harder to find a camping spot in your otc unit.

He has said that he was hunting a "well known trophy unit" and also said in an earlier post that he was hunting the Gila ("Gila here I come" or something like that).

There are no secret units that consistently produce 400" bulls that people are unaware of. Units that produce quality animals aren't a secret. You don't need a special handshake or anything to figure it out. It's not rocket surgery.

People who get wound up about this crap need to lighten up. The boogie man isn't real either.

Draw odds in quality units suck. Someone posting the unit where they killed a decent bull isn't going to cause any change in draw odds outside of statistical norms.

I hunted AZ 5BS last year and will apply there again every year. There were some really good bulls in the unit and two of the guys in our camp killed great bulls. I'll be back at some point and posting this on TBH will have no effect on the timing of my return.

I leave on Thursday to go hunt the Valle Vidal. I'll let you all know how the hunt goes.

I'm not scared of letting anyone know what units I hunt. I just understand the numbers game and know how many tags are issued in most of these units and I know how many people apply. While those bulls were fantastic, they won't cause a major spike in applications for the unit he was hunting. It wouldn't move the needle.

[JTeLarkin08]

He has said that he was hunting a "well known trophy unit" and also said in an earlier post that he was hunting the Gila ("Gila here I come" or something like that).

There are no secret units that consistently produce 400" bulls that people are unaware of. Units that produce quality animals aren't a secret. You don't need a special handshake or anything to figure it out. It's not rocket surgery.

People who get wound up about this crap need to lighten up. The boogie man isn't real either.

Draw odds in quality units suck. Someone posting the unit where they killed a decent bull isn't going to cause any change in draw odds outside of statistical norms.

I hunted AZ 5BS last year and will apply there again every year. There were some really good bulls in the unit and two of the guys in our camp killed great bulls. I'll be back at some point and posting this on TBH will have no effect on the timing of my return.

I leave on Thursday to go hunt the Valle Vidal. I'll let you all know how the hunt goes.

I'm not scared of letting anyone know what units I hunt. I just understand the numbers game and know how many tags are issued in most of these units and I know how many people apply. While those bulls were fantastic, they won't cause a major spike in applications for the unit he was hunting. It wouldn't move the needle.

Lol just because your not scared to share units still doesn't make it smart [emoji849] I mean ya sharing a
Once in a lifetime is cool. You can't draw it again.


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[RdRdrFan]

Lol just because your not scared to share units still doesn't make it smart [emoji849] I mean ya sharing a
Once in a lifetime is cool. You can't draw it again.


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One in a lifetime for me but both of my sons will be putting in there if my hunt is what I hope it is. I care more about them than I do myself so.....

You guys just don't get how inconsequential one or two applications are in the grand scheme of things. And don't think for a second that posting up two good bulls on TBH and listing the unit would cause a mad rush next spring. Maybe a couple of folks but that just won't move the needle.

Y'all are making this a much larger issue than it is.

On a different note, I went to set up camp yesterday and saw a whitetail doe at 15 yards standing beside the road in the Valle Vidal. Weird to see her up there.

[JTeLarkin08]

One in a lifetime for me but both of my sons will be putting in there if my hunt is what I hope it is. I care more about them than I do myself so.....

You guys just don't get how inconsequential one or two applications are in the grand scheme of things. And don't think for a second that posting up two good bulls on TBH and listing the unit would cause a mad rush next spring. Maybe a couple of folks but that just won't move the needle.

Y'all are making this a much larger issue than it is.

On a different note, I went to set up camp yesterday and saw a whitetail doe at 15 yards standing beside the road in the Valle Vidal. Weird to see her up there.

When a unit gives 5-7 tags in a guide or non resident pool 1-2 applications is huge



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[RdRdrFan]

When a unit gives 5-7 tags in a guide or non resident pool 1-2 applications is huge



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If it is a good unit then there would be at least 100 applying for a tag. If they give out 6 tags and 100 people apply then you have a 6% chance of drawing. If 102 people apply for the 6 tags then you have a 5.882% chance of drawing.

And think of how little difference that makes in units with even more tags.

I know intuitively you guys think it makes some huge difference. Math says otherwise.

[myway]

Man sounds like a duck hunting forum in here. Good luck to everyone headed out!

[JTeLarkin08]

If it is a good unit then there would be at least 100 applying for a tag. If they give out 6 tags and 100 people apply then you have a 6% chance of drawing. If 102 people apply for the 6 tags then you have a 5.882% chance of drawing.

And think of how little difference that makes in units with even more tags.

I know intuitively you guys think it makes some huge difference. Math says otherwise.

Wrong. I drew a good unit. There were around 20 people in the guide pool and 4-5 tags. 1-2 more makes a huge difference in that case. I see your argument but you don't know all the units as well as you think you do. There are some with decent draw odds


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[RdRdrFan]

Wrong. I drew a good unit. There were around 20 people in the guide pool and 4-5 tags. 1-2 more makes a huge difference in that case. I see your argument but you don't know all the units as well as you think you do. There are some with decent draw odds


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Ok. 6 tags, 20 applicants is 30% odds. 22 applicants is 27.3% odds. Still isn't a major statistical variation.

Sounds like you are likely going to a decent unit.

A decent unit and a good unit are apples and oranges. You can go to a unit with a good opportunity of killing a 300 class bull and an outside chance of something substantially bigger. To me, that's a decent unit. There are a lot of those. A good unit consistently produces large bulls on average.

No matter what you guys think, there are no super secret units that produce monsters every year that nobody knows about.

[JTeLarkin08]

Ok. 6 tags, 20 applicants is 30% odds. 22 applicants is 27.3% odds. Still isn't a major statistical variation.

Sounds like you are likely going to a decent unit.

A decent unit and a good unit are apples and oranges. You can go to a unit with a good opportunity of killing a 300 class bull and an outside chance of something substantially bigger. To me, that's a decent unit. There are a lot of those. A good unit consistently produces large bulls on average.

No matter what you guys think, there are no super secret units that produce monsters every year that nobody knows about.

I would say that my unit is better than decent but not the valle V lol


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[LWC]

RdRdrFan, good luck on your Valle Vidal hunt. I can't wait to hear about your experience. That is a dream hunt for sure!

I don't think 1 or 2 more apps causes any problems. I just think there are many more folks across the country searching for little tid bits and unit #'s that pop up on forum conversations. Things can snowball if you aren't careful. <1% is still <1% so posting those unit numbers doesn't make a big difference. It is the lesser known units that sometimes get some pub and can change for the worse over a few years of talking about them.